Bryan Caplan, the birth of science, eusociality, a page a day book, StoryBrand, how to 10x your productivity by playing World of Warcraft for 30 minutes a day, climate change and aliens!!
"For example, he argues that if you underestimate the risk of something you should do less of it, and if you overestimate the risk you should do more of it."
What if you overestimate the risk to be -1000 util when it's really -10 util? Still comes out to less than zero, even though it's an opportunity to improve your estimation.
I think that "everyone is the hero of their own story" is probably just one of those things that got subtly incorporated into popular writing at around the same time, see here: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/16/life-hero/
Personally, I think that the quote is a child (or grandchild?) or Proverbs 21:2, although the verse speaks of 'heroism' as in moral rectitude, not in the sense of being a protagonist.
"For example, he argues that if you underestimate the risk of something you should do less of it, and if you overestimate the risk you should do more of it."
What if you overestimate the risk to be -1000 util when it's really -10 util? Still comes out to less than zero, even though it's an opportunity to improve your estimation.
Well said. I was thinking something along those lines, but it never cohered.
I think that "everyone is the hero of their own story" is probably just one of those things that got subtly incorporated into popular writing at around the same time, see here: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/16/life-hero/
Personally, I think that the quote is a child (or grandchild?) or Proverbs 21:2, although the verse speaks of 'heroism' as in moral rectitude, not in the sense of being a protagonist.
I'm surprised my search didn't turn up the Quote Investigator article. Thanks for pointing it out. And I like the Proverbs connection.
I agree about Caplan. I like him, but sometimes he seems unwilling or unable to really understand the opposing side.