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As it pertains to black swans, I guess I would double down on my assertion. Culture will determine how the child deals with black swans.

As evidenced by the examples and your discussion, perception is nearly as variable as experience — with similar black swans serving as character building events (resilience) and character damaging events (trauma). In case of a black swan, if a parent says "I love you, but you will have to toughen up" and culture says "you poor thing, you're damaged and we need to nurture your damage", the same formula as I described above will play out. For the majority of the population, culture will determine the path.

The only way parents get to win is through "extreme" parenting combined with "extreme" barricading from culture.

So, I'm not sure we disagree at all. It's just that I think the gulf is SO wide, that the discussion is only relevant to extreme outlier parents, which stands in contradiction to the very idea of pop psychology/sociology and its incremental solutions.

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