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Desperate Dan's avatar

“we might also be dealing with a new species of the state”

I think you've touched on something really important there. It feels like we're going through a phase change in how modern civilization is structured -- a catastrophe cusp if you like. We won't know what the new status will be until we arrive there as it's path dependent and unpredictable.

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The Sentient Dog Group's avatar

So let's work thru the claims for fertility alarmism:

1. China has about 1B people today. It is projected to have about 0.6B in 2100. That is less than today but more than it had in 1900 (say 0.4B people). We can do this for other nations but I think most will agree these figures are 'directionally accurate'. We can, however, say if present trends continue those 600M people will have lives much more free from famine and sickness than 1900. While resource use concerns were overplayed in the 1970's, 0.6B will consume less than 1B in resources regardless leaving resources humanity can use beyond 2100 if it needs or wants.

2. If someone had a baby today to address, the baby would be nearly 80 in 2100 and she will be living in a world that has more people than today and likely more than has ever existed in human history.

Given these two, what is the evidence that there is an issue or that if there is one we can do anything about it today? Imagine going back to 1900 and telling people we have a 'fertility crises' in 2024. What are they going to do? Have some more kids? If they did those kids would be dead today.

It is quite possible in 2100 increased productivity will cause people to worry less about their own bills (and consumption has diminishing marginal utility after a certain point) so will find increased fertility will be a better way to fill up time and better health or they won't.

If they do then population will start growing again and since we are going to be more productive after 2100 than before it, those resources we didn't consume between 2024-2100 will still be there for us to put to even better use.

If they don't, well you could put more people into the funnel today by having more babies so 2100 will be marginally higher but you can't fix a 2100 fertility rate with extra babies today. Not only that, using up resources now rather than in the future is by definition wasteful and increases future risks.

Of course this is all just using current trends and asking about non-dramatic changes. I'm not entertaining more extreme cases like CRISPR extending our lifespans to be more like elves, nuclear war wiping out a huge portion of the population, some type of back to basics jihad turning us all Amish or whatnot. I'm also entertaining just normal productivity growth. No AI singularity that solves all problems of physics, chemistry, and biology etc all over a single weekend.

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