Category: <span>Book Reviews</span>

The 7 Books I Finished in December

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  1. Why Liberalism Failed by: Patrick J. Deenen
  2. Leviathan Falls by: James S. A. Corey
  3. Termination Shock by: Neal Stephenson
  4. The Histories of Herodotus by: Herodotus 
  5. The Golden Transcendence by: John C. Wright
  6. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by: Charlie MacKesy
  7. Doctrine and Covenants

I had hoped to finish at least 104 books this year. There are a couple of reasons for this: First, it’s what I did last year. Second, it would mean I had averaged two books a week. Unfortunately I only ended up with 102. I was very close to finishing two other books, but between the holidays, the big extended family trip we take every year between Christmas and New Years, and, most of all, getting COVID. (Yes, for those following along at home, my PCR test was positive.) I eventually decided it would be better to start 2022 a little bit ahead, than try to fit in a bunch of feverish reading on the last day of the year.

You may have guessed that there was a connection between COVID, and the “big extended family trip”. Indeed there was. But in retrospect, even knowing that I, and many others, would end up with COVID, I’m not sure what we would have done differently. When you’re doing a vacation that involves over 30 people it’s kind of a juggernaut, with spending well into the five figures. Also Omicron really only spiked a few days before we were set to leave, so we didn’t have the information necessary to make the decision to cancel the trip in time even if it had made sense to. On top of all of the foregoing, it’s not as if we were ignoring the problem. We did a bunch of rapid tests immediately before the trip and they all came up negative. And basically everyone was vaccinated and most people (including myself) were boosted on top of that.

I suspect that there will be a lot of stories similar to mine of holiday gatherings that acted as super spreader events . One can already see a huge recent spike in cases, which appears to be almost vertical. It’s interesting to compare this spike to last year’s holiday spike. Last year the spike started in mid-October. This year, in mid-October, cases were still declining from a September peak, and it wasn’t until the end of November that they started turning up, and then there was a weird plateau between the 3rd and the 17th of December before they shot up like a rocket. 

I guess what I’m curious about is when we’ll hit the daily case peak and how high will that peak be? Last year we peaked on the 12th of January, but that’s the peak of a trend that started in mid-October, but also grew more slowly. This year’s started later, but is growing much faster. So based on that and eyeballing things I think it’s going to peak and start it’s decline around January 15th. As far as what that peak will be, I’m going to say 2,500 daily cases per million people as per the ourworldindata.org site. Should anyone want to make their own predictions on this I’d be very interested in seeing them. You can email me or leave them in the comments.

A lot of things could affect this number, in particular attitudes around and availability of testing. I had to wait in line for two hours in order to get my PCR test on the 31st, and my kids had to wait four hours on the 3rd despite getting in line several hours earlier. 

Of course, what we’re really interested in is confirmed deaths and so far that hasn’t spiked, and hopefully it won’t.


I- Eschatological Reviews

Why Liberalism Failed

by: Patrick J. Deenen

248 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

It’s difficult to condense it into a single point, but perhaps it can be boiled down into the conflict between liberalism and democracy. The former pulls everything to the opposite extremes of individualism or globalism, while the latter requires strong civic engagement in the middle (communities, states, organizations, etc.)

Who should read this book?

I’ve read many books about the collapse of Western liberal ideology. I would say that this is the densest. So you should either read it after you’ve established a broad foundation with other books. Or if you’re in a hurry, only read this one since it contains most of what’s said elsewhere.

General Thoughts

As I have already said, there’s a lot going on in the book. Deenen covers a huge amount of territory, in a comparatively tiny number of pages. So I’m going to focus on just one thing, his claim that liberalism pushes everything to the ends of the spectrum—it is an ideology that simultaneously pushes politics towards maximum individualism and maximum statism.

I don’t know about you, but I hadn’t come across this description of the bifurcated nature of liberalism before and at first glance it seems obviously contradictory. How can an ideology simultaneously encourage individuation and absolutism? As it turns out, despite the fact that I hadn’t encountered the idea it’s not new. Alexis de Tocqueville, that famous chronicler of Democracy in America, wrote the following all the way back in 1835:

So … no man is obliged to put his powers at the disposal of another, and no one has any claim of right to substantial support from his fellow man, each is both independent and weak. These two conditions, which must be neither seen quite separately nor confused, give the citizen of a democracy extremely contradictory instincts. He is full of confidence and pride in his independence among his equals, but from time to time his weakness makes him feel the need for some outside help which he cannot expect from any of his fellows, for they are both impotent and cold. In this extremity he naturally turns his eyes toward that huge entity [the tutelary state] which alone stands out above the universal level of abasement. His needs, and even more his longings, continually put him in mind of that entity, and he ends by regarding it as the sole and necessary support of his individual weakness

To put it in different terms, if you want maximum liberty some entity has to guarantee that liberty. And as we have decided against individuals ensuring their own liberty, (i.e. armed anarchy) that entity is the state. Here’s Deenen going into greater detail.

Ironically, the more completely the sphere of autonomy is secured, the more comprehensive the state must become. Liberty, so defined, requires liberation from all forms of associations and relationships, from family to church, from schools to village and community, that exerted control over behavior through informal and habituated expectations and norms. These controls were largely cultural, not political—law was less extensive and existed largely as a continuation of cultural norms, the informal expectations of behavior learned through family, church, and community. With the liberation of individuals from these associations, there is more need to regulate behavior through the imposition of positive law. At the same time, as the authority of social norms dissipates, they are increasingly felt to be residual, arbitrary, and oppressive, motivating calls for the state to actively work toward their eradication.

This creates a tension between liberalism and democracy, because in essence liberalism hinges on changing what “liberty” has historically meant:

“Liberty” is a word of ancient lineage, yet liberalism has a more recent pedigree, being arguably only a few hundred years old. It arises from a redefinition of the nature of liberty to mean almost the opposite of its original meaning. By ancient and Christian understandings, liberty was the condition of self-governance, whether achieved by the individual or by a political community. Because self-rule was achieved only with difficulty— requiring an extensive habituation in virtue, particularly self-command and self-discipline over base but insistent appetites—the achievement of liberty required constraints upon individual choice.

Democracy, in fact, cannot ultimately function in a liberal regime. Democracy requires extensive social forms that liberalism aims to deconstruct, particularly shared social practices and commitments that arise from thick communities, not a random collection of unconnected selves entering and exiting an election booth.

“Thick communities” is a great term, and it’s precisely what we don’t have any more. We have carved out the middle so that there will be no restrictions on individual choice, and created Hobbes’ Leviathan in order to have a weapon equal to the task.

I can only pretend to have the smallest amount of understanding of this subject, but I definitely got a strong sense of that former definition of liberty, a liberty of self-discipline, while reading Plato. And what I have read beyond that would seem to support this idea. And of course it was this virtue, these associations, religions, communities, and norms which represent the “thickness” we no longer have.

For a more modern example of what he’s talking about, Deenen brings up the example of Julia. If you were paying attention during the 2012 election then perhaps you remember Julia. 

Julia appeared briefly toward the beginning of Obama’s campaign as a series of internet slides in which it was demonstrated that she had achieved her dreams through a series of government programs that, throughout her life, had enabled various milestones… In Julia’s world there are only Julia and the government, with the very brief exception of a young child who appears in one slide—with no evident father—and is quickly whisked away by a government-sponsored yellow bus, never to be seen again. Otherwise, Julia has achieved a life of perfect autonomy, courtesy of a massive, sometimes intrusive, always solicitous, ever-present government.

You may get the impression from the examples given so far and my generally traditional bent that this is all a problem originating from progressive liberalism. And indeed it’s hard to think of a better example of massive government intrusion in the service of individual autonomy than the current battle over transgender rights. But Deenen heaps just as much criticism on classical liberalism and their valorization of corporations and markets. I’m probably not the guy to steelman that particular argument, but it is worth including an excerpt on how left and right are two sides of the same coin:

These ends have been achieved through the depersonalization and abstraction advanced via two main entities— the state and the market. Yet while they have worked together in a pincer movement to render us ever more naked as individuals, our political debates mask this alliance by claiming that allegiance to one of these forces will save us from the depredations of the other. Our main political choices come down to which depersonalized mechanism will purportedly advance our freedom and security—the space of the market, which collects our billions upon billions of choices to provide for our wants and needs without demanding from us any specific thought or intention about the wants and needs of others; or the liberal state, which establishes depersonalized procedures and mechanisms for the wants and needs of others that remain insufficiently addressed by the market.

When he goes on to identify the “key features of liberalism” as the “conquest of nature”, “timelessness”, “placelessness”, and “borderlessness”, this list of attributes is mostly associated with classical liberalism, rather than it’s progressive brother.

I need to wrap up this section. I understand that the review has been heavy on quotes and excerpts. In part this is because, as I write this, I’m still recovering from COVID, and copying is easier than composing. In part it’s because there are so many passages worthy of excerpting. With that in mind I would like to close out the section with one final excerpt:

Today’s widespread yearning for a strong leader, one with the will to take back popular control over liberalism’s forms of bureaucratized government and globalized economy, comes after decades of liberal dismantling of cultural norms and political habits essential to self-governance. The breakdown of family, community, and religious norms and institutions, especially among those benefiting least from liberalism’s advance, has not led liberalism’s discontents to seek a restoration of those norms. That would take effort and sacrifice in a culture that now diminishes the value of both. Rather, many now look to deploy the statist powers of liberalism against its own ruling class. Meanwhile, huge energies are spent in mass protest rather than in self-legislation and deliberation, reflecting less a renewal of democratic governance than political fury and despair. Liberalism created the conditions, and the tools, for the ascent of its own worst nightmare, yet it lacks the self-knowledge to understand its own culpability.

Eschatological Implications

It is commonly pointed out, both by this book, and others, that at the beginning of the 20th century there were three competing political ideologies: fascism, communism, and liberalism. Fascism was eliminated as a competitor by World War II (unless you think that’s what’s happening in China) and communism was eliminated by the end of the Cold War (again, depending on what you think is happening in China.) In an ideal world this would mean we now live in an era of international cooperation and peace between liberal nations, where the protection and celebration of individual autonomy has led to unprecedented happiness within those nations. The first part would appear to be mostly true, whether it will remain true is a subject for another time. But whatever the state of the world at the international level, no one would say that we are experiencing unprecedented happiness. The question: why not? Is an interesting one, but in the context of this book I’d rather ask: why now?

Deenen explanations for liberalism’s failures go all the way back to the founding, and beyond to people like Locke, Hobbes, Burke and Mill. If the seeds of liberalism’s failure have been in the ground for so long, why are they only sprouting now? In one sense a large percentage of this blog’s content has been dedicated to answering that question. But if we restrict ourselves to the themes outlined in the book I’d like to consider two specific explanations:

The first, and the one Deenen emphasizes the most is that liberalism’s recent failure is a result of its recent victory. That all of our current problems are due to liberalism essentially winning the race and crossing the finish line.

A political philosophy that was launched to foster greater equity, defend a pluralist tapestry of different cultures and beliefs, protect human dignity, and, of course, expand liberty, in practice generates titanic inequality, enforces uniformity and homogeneity, fosters material and spiritual degradation, and undermines freedom. Its success can be measured by its achievement of the opposite of what we have believed it would achieve. Rather than seeing the accumulating catastrophe as evidence of our failure to live up to liberalism’s ideals, we need rather to see clearly that the ruins it has produced are the signs of its very success. To call for the cures of liberalism’s ills by applying more liberal measures is tantamount to throwing gas on a raging fire. It will only deepen our political, social, economic, and moral crisis.

We have recently achieved near perfect bifurcation. People have basically no limits on their choices, except those which have been imposed by nine judges operating at the very highest level of government oversight, and then such laws are backed by the force of trillions of dollars and millions of enforcers. We have achieved the absolute leviathan and the perfectly autonomous individual. 

Or rather we are getting very close to this achievement, certainly far closer than anyone ever dreamed of and the means of doing that bring up the second explanation for “why now?” As is so often the case, technology has played a role.

Liberalism was premised upon the limitation of government and the liberation of the individual from arbitrary political control. But growing numbers of citizens regard the government as an entity separate from their own will and control, not their creature and creation as promised by liberal philosophy. The “limited government” of liberalism today would provoke jealousy and amazement from tyrants of old, who could only dream of such extensive capacities for surveillance and control of movement, finances, and even deeds and thoughts. The liberties that liberalism was brought into being to protect—individual rights of conscience, religion, association, speech, and self-governance—are extensively compromised by the expansion of government activity into every area of life. Yet this expansion continues, largely as a response to people’s felt loss of power over the trajectory of their lives in so many distinct spheres—economic and otherwise—leading to demands for further intervention by the one entity even nominally under their control. Our government readily complies, moving like a ratchet wrench, always in one direction, enlarging and expanding in response to civic grievances, ironically leading in turn to citizens’ further experience of distance and powerlessness. (emphasis mine)

The big theme of both of these explanations and of Deenen’s quotes in general is that liberalism has reached a dead end, and going forward will only make things worse. Unfortunately there’s no easy way of backing up either. Perhaps, to strain the metaphor somewhat, we need to climb some nearby wall, and find a new road. But it’s unclear which wall to climb or what that road might look like. Deenen thinks we need a completely new ideology, an “epic theory”.

When the book was first published he believed that such a project would take a very long time, events since then have changed his mind. From a preface attached to the new edition:

I now believe I was wrong to think that this project would take generations. Even in the months since the book’s publication, the fragility of the liberal order has become evident, now threatened by both right-wing nationalist movements and left-wing socialism. Instead of imagining a far-off and nearly inconceivable era when the slow emergence of liberalism’s alternatives might become fully visible from its long-burning embers, we find ourselves in a moment when “epic theory” becomes necessary. The long era in which we could be content with “normal theory,” working within the existing paradigm to explore the outermost reaches and distant implications of liberalism while also signaling its solidity and permanence, has ended. Epic theory becomes necessary when that paradigm loses its explanatory power, and events call forth a new departure in political thinking. When I was writing the conclusion of my book, I believed we were in a long phase of preparation for postliberal epic theory. But in mere months—having seen the American political order assaulted by two parties that are in a death grip but each lacking the ability to eliminate the other, and observing the accelerating demolition of the liberal order in Europe—I now think that the moment for “epic theory” has come upon us more suddenly than we could have anticipated. Such moments probably always arrive before we think we are ready. Augustine’s City of God was made necessary by the sudden and unexpected overturning of the “eternal” Roman order in A.D. 410. It seems more apparent every day that a comparable epoch-defining book must arise from our age, and I hope some young reader of this book will be the person to write it.

With his comments on right-wing nationalism and left-wing socialism, he alludes to the idea that perhaps we’ll return to liberalism’s vanquished alternatives: fascism and communism. But it’s hard to imagine that our salvation lies in either of those directions. Deenen suggests as much with his call for an epic theory, but it’s hard to imagine salvation coming from that corner either. More likely we’ve reached the end of history and instead of discovering a durable paradise we’ve uncovered a tumultuous hell.


II- Capsule Reviews

Leviathan Falls

by: James S. A. Corey

528 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This book concludes The Expanse series, finally dealing with the issue of the malevolent elder gods who destroyed the ring builders. 

Who should read this book?

If you’ve made it through the first eight books in this series I can’t imagine that you would be reluctant to read one more book to see how it all ends. For those who have read only some of the previous eight books, or who perhaps haven’t read any of them, and are hesitating because they want to know if the series as a whole has a satisfying arc. I would say that it does. 

General Thoughts

Ending things is tough, and there are many works of art—books, TV shows, series of all kinds—which succeed right up until that point, only to fail when it comes time to tie up all the loose ends. Art whose reach ultimately exceeds its grasp. So how does Corey do with the job of ending The Expanse? I would give it a 7 out of 10. So not perfect, but better than average. It was solid, but not extraordinary.

In order to explain my mild dissatisfaction I’m going to go into mild spoiler territory. So if you’d rather avoid that sort of thing skip the next paragraph.

I came away with the strong feeling that when the ring builders and their destruction were introduced at the end of the third book, that Corey (who is actually two people btw…) had not quite figured out the nature of the ring builders or the nature of their enemies. So when it comes time to conclude things, some of the things they had already established no longer made sense. I understand this is being kind of picky, but a really great ending is all about revealing the grand plan you’ve had from the very beginning. And in this case those disparities made the plan less grand, or at least less elegant. It left one with the feeling that perhaps they were making it up as they went along.

Still as somewhat pulpy science fiction goes, this was a great series, and if you’ve been thinking about either picking it up or continuing it. I would recommend that you do so. 


Termination Shock: A Novel

by: Neal Stephenson

720 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A hard headed Texas businessman, the Dutch Queen, and other assorted characters decide to solve global warming through geoengineering.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who likes Stephenson already. If you have no strong opinion or haven’t read anything he’s written this book is not a bad place to start. 

General Thoughts

The last time I reviewed a Stephenson novel I paid special recognition to a horribly awkward sex scene he had included. There is more of that in this book, though he’s managed to move things in the direction of humorous double entendres, making things both less explicit and less cringe-worthy, but for me it was still a false note. Perhaps the only one, because other than that I quite enjoyed the book, particularly the characters of T.R. and Rufus. After being somewhat disappointed in his last two books (Seveneves and Fall) this felt like a return to form.


The Landmark Herodotus: The Histories

by: Herodotus 

1024 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

It’s the founding book of western history, which describes the rise of the Persian empire and the Greco-Persian war, among other things.

Who should read this book?

If you have any interest in ancient history or the genesis of the West, this book is not only important, but eminently accessible.

General Thoughts

This is the third time I’ve read Herodotus. I picked it up again because I couldn’t resist this new edition which has all kinds of maps and appendices. The hardback is pretty expensive but you can pick up the paperback for $15. In it you’ll find all sorts of great stories, including the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae, Creosus of Lydia (call no man happy until he’s dead), and Herodotus’ great attempt at explaining why the Nile floods.

On this third reading I spent a lot of time wondering how much the Greco-Persian war contributed to the whole idea of the “Western World”. As a foundational myth, the story of the tiny city states of Greece taking on the million man army of Xerxes of Persia, and miraculously, winning, is hard to beat. Now, of course, modern historians doubt that Xerxes had anywhere close to the numbers Herodotus claims, but one assumes that most of the people reading the account in the thousands of years since it was first written didn’t know this. 


The Golden Transcendence: Or, The Last of the Masquerade 

by: John C. Wright

414 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The final book in The Golden Age Trilogy, which kind of ends in the way you would expect a series like this to end, with a bunch of philosophy added in for good measure.

Who should read this book?

I’m not sure. It’s a weird mix of metaphysics, Victorian adventure story, transhumanism, love story and AI ethics. Which, yes, could be awesome, but it requires all of them to be subtly intertwined, and one thing this trilogy is not, is subtle. 

General Thoughts

I’m glad I read the trilogy. If nothing else, the world-building was great. In particular Wright did a great job of describing a full spectrum of transhuman possibilities. One that was far larger than what you find in most futuristic science fiction. But now that I’m done I think it’s another series where the author’s ambition exceeded his ability to execute. But if you’re just looking for a whole mess of interesting ideas, this series has that in spades.


The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

by: Charlie MacKesy

128 pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

It’s not so much what the book is about, but what it looks like. It’s more a work of visual art than it is a story.

Who should read this book?

Everywhere I turned I was hearing about this book. So I read it to see what all the fuss was about. It’s a beautiful book with a sweet message. But it might be one of those things that’s famous for being famous…

General Thoughts

It’s probably going to take me longer to write this review than it did to read the book. (It took me about 20 minutes to read the book.) And I’m not sure how I feel about that. It’s a typical children’s book, and I’m not sure I’ve read enough of those recently to be qualified to pass judgment. It struck me as being pretty saccharine. Here are three consecutive pages:

“Life is difficult — but you are loved.”

“So you know all about me?” asked the boy. “Yes.” Said the horse. “And you still love me?” “We love you all the more.”

“Sometimes I think you believe in me more than I do.” Said the boy. “You’ll catch up.” Said the horse.

It’s entirely possible that I am too jaded to give an objective opinion.


III- Religious Review

Doctrine and Covenants

296 pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This book is part of the scriptural canon of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS). It consists of modern day revelations received by Joseph Smith, mostly in the 1830’s, along with a few additional revelations received by subsequent prophets.

Who should read this book?

If you’re interested in the Church, then I would suggest reading the Book of Mormon first, but the Doctrine and Covenants also has some really great stuff.

General Thoughts

Within the Church last year was dedicated to studying Church history and the Doctrine and Covenants, which is how this ended up as one of the books I read. Obviously you can cover a lot of territory in a full year, and I can only cover a tiny portion of that in a single review. So I figured I’d just provide my two favorite passages. The first is from Doctrine and Covenants Section 58, verses 26-28:

26 For behold, it is not meet that I should command in all things; for he that is compelled in all things, the same is a slothful and not a wise servant; wherefore he receiveth no reward.

27 Verily I say, men should be anxiously engaged in a good cause, and do many things of their own free will, and bring to pass much righteousness;

28 For the power is in them, wherein they are agents unto themselves. And inasmuch as men do good they shall in nowise lose their reward.

This first one came to me with particular impact many years ago when I was unemployed and fighting a lawsuit. At the time I was praying every day for guidance, and it wasn’t coming. And then I came across those verses, which I had heard many times (particularly verse 26) but they had never hit me before like they hit me that day. And I realized that it was up to me. That I needed to do what I thought was best, and that in a sense the whole thing was a test. Phrasing it like this, probably trivializes it, but perhaps if I move onto the other verse it will make more sense. This one is from Section 93, verse 30:

All truth is independent in that sphere in which God has placed it, to act for itself, as all intelligence also; otherwise there is no existence.

Existence and intelligence are about making choices, and acting for ourselves. If you’re familiar with my extensive writings on the relationship between LDS cosmology and the AI alignment problem then you might be able to see some connection between that and this verse. 

One of the reasons why I continue to be a very devout member of The Church of Jesus-Christ of Latter-day Saints is that this model (which I have only touched on in the most superficial way) continues to make sense to me, and explains the world at least as well if not better than anything else I’ve come across in my reading and searching.

I’ve seen a lot of things recently that would seem to indicate that anyone who reads as much as I do is a pseudo-intellectual who’s just trying to run up the score, not really engaging with what they read. If you disagree with that. If you happen to like how much I read and the reviews it generates, consider donating.


The 8 Books I Finished in November (And the One Series I Decided Not to Finish)

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  1. The Deep Places: A Memoir of Illness and Discovery by: Ross Douthat
  2. Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration’s Response to the Pandemic That Changed History by: Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damien Paletta
  3. The Premonition: A Pandemic Story by: Michael Lewis
  4. Morning Star by: Pierce Brown
  5. Star Trek: The City on the Edge of Forever Teleplay by: Harlan Ellison
  6. The Economics of Violence by: Gary M. M. Shiffman
  7. The Hobbit, or There and Back Again by: J. R. R. Tolkien
  8. Chorazin: (The Weird of Hali #1) by: John Michael Greer
  9. The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia by: Peter Hopkirk

I’ve always been a big fan of November. I’m a big fan of fall in general, and November has the start of the holidays going for it as well. Along the way, at some point in the month, one nearly always gets a spell of Indian summer, where the temperature is perfect and the leaves are still pretty. 

It was particularly nice to be somewhat back to normal in terms of family gatherings. Last Thanksgiving our big family gathering was cancelled and so I took my immediate family to a restaurant. (I’m not saying that option was necessarily safer, it’s just the option we took.) 

Writing wise I’m trying to prioritize working on my book as the first writing I do every day, which made the essays drag out a little bit, so I’m still trying to strike a balance there. But hopefully I’m dialing it in. 

Finally, since by the next time this section rolls around it will already have passed. I guess this is the time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!


I- Eschatological Reviews

The Deep Places: A Memoir of Illness and Discovery 

by: Ross Douthat

224 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

Epistemology in an age of unlimited information and experimentation. 

I suppose, if you want to split hairs, the story of Douthat’s battle with chronic lyme disease (CLD) also features prominently, but mostly it’s about epistemology.

Who should read this book?

It’s possible that over the two and a half years I’ve been publishing my reviews, that I have been too liberal with my “everyone” designation. As in:

“Who should read this book?”

“Everyone.”

I will be more parsimonious going forward, because I want “everyone” to mean something. Particularly now, because I really do think that everyone should read this book.

General Thoughts

After that intro the first question you might have is “Why?” “Why should everyone read this book?” Well to begin with Douthat is a great writer, and even Freddie deBoer, who was critical of the book, acknowledges that:

The Deep Places tasks us with becoming intimately familiar with Douthat’s body and mind, and succeeds in that way that is unique to reading. The book depends on that willingness to inhabit Douthat’s life, including its most private spaces, a profound change of pace even from his memoiristic first book. If he had failed to draw his readers in, if he hadn’t successfully opened up his self to be picked over by strangers, the book would have failed completely. At that first prerequisite task he’s succeeded, to the degree that it’s hard for me to imagine someone reading this book and not wanting desperately to alleviate Douthat’s pain. This is all the more impressive given the degree of difficult[y] here; it’s a book that requires a leap of faith. The size of that leap will depend on your priors.

If even someone critical of the book describes it as immersive and impressive, then hopefully you can start to see why I’m saying that everyone should read it. But it’s that last part, the “leap of faith”, the part that deBoer takes issue with, which is where the book goes from immersive and impressive to important

As you may, or may not have already guessed, it’s in the existence of CLD where deBoer and much of the medical world argue that faith is required. Faith, because there’s no proof. Or as Wikipedia says:

Chronic Lyme disease is the name used by some people with “a broad array of illnesses or symptom complexes for which there is no reproducible or convincing scientific evidence of any relationship to Borrelia burgdorferi infection” to describe their condition and their beliefs about its cause. Both the label and the belief that these people’s symptoms are caused by this particular infection are generally rejected by medical professionals, and the promotion of chronic Lyme disease is an example of health fraud… 

Despite numerous studies, there is no evidence that symptoms associated with CLD are caused by any persistent infection…

A number of alternative health products are promoted for chronic Lyme disease, of which possibly the most controversial and harmful is long-term antibiotic therapy, particularly intravenous antibiotics. Recognised authorities advise against long-term antibiotic treatment for Lyme disease, even where some symptoms persist post-treatment. Following disciplinary proceedings by state medical licensing boards in the United States, a subculture of “Lyme literate” physicians has successfully lobbied for specific legal protections, exempting them from the standard of care and Infectious Diseases Society of America treatment guidelines. Such legislation has been criticised as an example of “legislative alchemy”, the process whereby pseudomedicine is legislated into practice.

In the book Douthat argues against all of that. That he did have CLD and it was because he was still infected. That the studies are wrong, and that it was only after massive experimentation with antibiotics, intravenous and otherwise, that he finally started feeling better. And all of this was only possible because of the existence of “Lyme literate” physicians. 

(I’m not sure if Douthat still thinks he’s infected, or if he thinks his CLD has moved on to being “post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome”.)

So who do we believe, the “recognized authorities” or Douthat? Well even Douthat initially wanted to believe the “recognized authorities” and that’s part of what makes the book so compelling. The way it demonstrates the journey of someone who desperately wants to believe the recognized authorities, but the longer things go the worse their advice gets and the more attractive the fringe becomes.

He starts off in the exact opposite position as someone who actively rejects fringe thinking and really wants to “follow the science”. So when the doctors in DC tell him he doesn’t have Lyme disease, he believes them, and really tries to come to terms with a world where his bizarre array of incredibly serious symptoms are all just psychological. But treating it from this angle is singularly ineffective, and things continue to get worse. But then, he moves to the Northeast where Lyme disease is endemic, even “by the book” doctors tell him, “Oh, you obviously have Lyme disease.” At this point should he follow the DC science or the Northeastern science? Presumably the latter because they have more data, right? Does this trend continue towards believing people on the internet who’ve actually cured CLD? No? Why not? Where do we draw the line?

Answering this question of how to conduct science when you’re the subject, is the entire point of the book, and why I think it’s a book about epistemology. Douthat’s process is important enough and interesting enough that I’m going to include a very long quote from the man himself.

The first, an infectious disease specialist in New York City, had an avuncular, reassuring manner. Yes, he said, I probably had Lyme — my symptoms fit, the blood tests missed lots of cases, he saw people like me all the time. But no, I didn’t need to worry that much about the disastrous chronic cases I was now reading about on the internet. Yes, some Lyme cases took more than a few weeks to clear, and he usually prescribed antibiotics for a little longer than the official guidelines. But that would be enough, he promised: I would be much, much better by the holidays, and well within a year.

The second doctor had a wood-paneled office one town over from our new Connecticut house, more like a den than a clinic, and books and pamphlets littering the waiting room, each seeming to offer a different theory on how one might treat an entrenched case of Lyme. He talked to me for 90 minutes, took copious notes, asked a thousand questions, and informed me that chronic Lyme was an epidemic, wildly underdiagnosed and totally mistreated. Could he get me better? Probably, but I was obviously very sick, and it would take a while. Most of his patients took high doses of antibiotics for around a year; I might need more; some needed years and years of treatment.

The first doctor reassured me; the second doctor frightened me. So I chose to believe the first one, to trust his version of the science, and for months I followed his prescriptions — while also seeing doctors who told me that even his approach was too aggressive, that if I had Lyme disease at one point I no longer did, and that I should stop the antibiotics altogether and wait for my body to recover on its own.

But the body’s experiences are their own form of empirical reality, and as a patient you can’t follow a scientific theory that doesn’t succeed in practice. And in the end the reassuring doctor’s theories didn’t work — I didn’t get better on his steady dose of antibiotics, the constant pain didn’t go away — while the advice to go off antibiotics entirely led to disasters, where I stopped the drugs and disintegrated quickly.

So I went back to the doctor who frightened me, feeling that otherwise I could be sick forever, sick until I died. And the rest of the story unfolded, over a very long period of time, roughly as the dissenting faction of Lyme doctors would have predicted.

…after about a year of trying different combinations of antibiotics and extremely high doses, I finally found a cocktail that first made my symptoms more predictable, and then enabled me to begin slowly gaining ground, month upon month and year upon year — in a process that has taken me from almost-constant pain to something approaching normal life and health.

So that dissenting doctor — and others like him, and many researchers doing work on Lyme disease treatments outside the official line — saved my life. But I also saved my own life, because I was the only one who could actually tell what treatments made a difference.

So what is one to make of all this? DeBoer reads the whole book (which is full of much more stuff than could be included in the quote) and ends his review by pointing out the ways in which the book “triumphs”, but then immediately follows that declaration with this final paragraph:

But I still don’t believe in chronic Lyme. And I wish I could say I was sorry.

I ended up reading deBoer’s review before I read the actual book, and after reading the actual book I was stunned by this assertion. And it raises a host of questions in my mind:

  • When he says he doesn’t believe, what’s his certainty level? 51%? 100%? Did reading the book move the needle at all? If so, by how much?
  • How does deBoer feel about other diseases on the fringes? Does he just have a beef with CLD? What about chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)? How does he feel about people who think CLD may be misdiagnosed CFS? 
  • How much of his dismissal is tied into Douthat’s Catholicism? Which is to say his belief in other non-scientific phenomena? (I’ll have just a little bit more to say about this in the religious section at the end.)
  • Finally, and most importantly, what does deBoer imagine he would do if he were in Douthat’s shoes? If he had the same symptoms and those symptoms all responded in the same way to the same things? Would he still not believe in CLD? Or does he imagine that it couldn’t happen to him? (Perhaps because of the aforementioned religiosity?)

The problem with that, is it’s already happening to all of us. Which takes me to:

Eschatological Implications

I don’t have the space to go into why it happened, and in any case I’ve touched on those subjects elsewhere—the history of the internet, and conspiracy theories and the various ideological camps, each seemingly possessed of their own fringe ideas. But somehow we’ve all ended up suffering from the same epistemological chaos as Douthat. Most (though not all) are fortunate enough that it doesn’t affect their health and doesn’t leave them in constant pain. For most people it’s ideological and evidentiary chaos. A million voices screaming at them all the time that this thing is important, no this other thing is important. With very little way to make sense of it except by doing their own crude experiments, following their gut, and choosing which flavor of the fringe they find most palatable.

Yes, there are still authorities, but beyond the obvious fact that their authority has been diminishing for years, it’s also much harder to be an authority, as knowledge, opinions and innuendo have proliferated, seemingly exponentially. And so, like Douthat we are left to construct our own authority on those issues we care most deeply about. In this effort, it’s clear that we’re not all that good at it, but that also it doesn’t take much to be better than the experts. Or, to put it another way, is there really any greater authority on Douthat’s condition than Douthat? Before the internet, sure? Afterwards, no way.

I don’t know what this atomization of authority means for the future of our society. But I do know that it’s happening, and that Douthat’s is the best book I’ve seen for describing what that atomization feels like from the inside.


II- Capsule Reviews

Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration’s Response to the Pandemic That Changed History 

by: Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damien Paletta

496 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The Trump administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Who should read this book?

I read two books about the pandemic last month. Of those two I would recommend reading Michael Lewis’ (see my next review) before reading this one. But if you have already decided that Trump is THE bad guy and you just want that decision to be confirmed, you will probably really enjoy this book.

General Thoughts

It is my eventual intention to take this book and the next book, plus a third book which I have yet to read and pull all of them together into a post mortem on the initial handling of the pandemic, along with what I believe are some long term lessons we should take from things.

Until that point, the key thing to know about this book is that it’s not a book about the pandemic, it’s a book about what Trump did during the pandemic. As an example of what I mean, when the book gets to the point in the narrative when BLM protests erupt in the wake of George Floyd’s killing the authors spend three pages talking about Trumps march to St. John’s Church and only a paragraph discussing whether the large gatherings might contribute to the spread of the virus. The former had nothing to do with the pandemic while the latter represented one of the biggest questions of the whole period. 

Not only is the book focused on Trump, it has clearly taken sides as well. The very first thing it does is introduce Trump as the bad guy while introducing Fauci as the good guy. 

Despite what I feel are its evident biases, I do think that the insider account of how the pandemic was handled at the highest levels is very interesting and useful, but unfortunately the biases mean that it’s also very narrow.


The Premonition: A Pandemic Story 

by: Michael Lewis

320 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Modern attempts to prepare for pandemics going back to George W. Bush, and how this preparation played out when we actually had a pandemic. 

Who should read this book?

At this point I’ve only read one other book about that pandemic, which is not surprising, the story is still ongoing. But out of those two I would definitely recommend this one. But it’s also entirely possible that the real definitive work is yet to be published. 

General Thoughts

Lewis is a great writer, and this is a very enjoyable book. As I already said I’m going to wait to really dig into it in a separate post. But I guess it’s worth comparing this book to the previous book. In this book the Trump administration is something of a villain, but it’s not the villain, nor is it all directed at Trump either. Also one gets the impression from Lewis’ book that there were a lot of moving parts, and that it’s really difficult to isolate which ones could have saved us and which ones really hurt us. Which is to say Lewis’ is definitely the more nuanced of the two.

Perhaps the best way to compare the two books, though certainly not 100% accurate, is that Lewis is promoting the Mistake Theory version of the story. While Abutaleb and Paletta seem to be promoting more of the Conflict Theory version.


Morning Star

by: Pierce Brown

544 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The concluding events of the initial Red Rising trilogy, where the Gold’s finally get what’s coming to them, or something, I got about 20% of the way through it and couldn’t stomach it anymore.

Who should read this book?

After reading book 2 of the series I decided that it was a combination of Dune, Game of Thrones and the Hunger Games, but bloodier and more duplicitous than all of them. If that sounds appealing maybe you should read this book. For myself I can’t recommend the series and I probably can’t even recommend just reading the first book.

General Thoughts

Imagine if someone experienced the Red Wedding from Game of Thrones and said, “I’m going to write a book that is nothing but Red Weddings!” That’s how book 3 felt to me. Before abandoning it, I decided to read the plot summary on Wikipedia, I was not wrong. 


Star Trek: The City on the Edge of Forever

Originally by: Harlan Ellison

Adapted by: Scott & David Tipton

128 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A graphic novelization of Harlan Ellison’s original script for “The City on the Edge of Forever”. One of the best regarded of the episodes from Star Trek’s original series.

Who should read this book?

If you like Harlan Ellison, Star Trek, or graphic novels, you will probably enjoy this book.

General Thoughts

Wikipedia asserts that “The City on the Edge of Forever” is frequently named as the best Star Trek episode of the entire Star Trek franchise. Harlan Ellison always maintained that they butchered his original script and that what you saw was just a pale imitation of the majesty of the original. Having heard this accusation for years, when I saw that there was a graphic novelization of his original I bought it immediately, so that I could finally decide for myself. 

It was great, and thoroughly enjoyable, but having read it I would say Ellison oversold things, and was probably insufficiently appreciative of what they had managed to do with the actual episode. But if you’re familiar at all with Ellison that probably won’t surprise you. Still the man could write.


The Economics of Violence

by: Gary M. M. Shiffman

244 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

That the conventional wisdom that cartel violence is different from mob violence, is different from terrorism, is wrong. That really all violence can be explained using economic incentives. 

Who should read this book?

Previously we had an “everybody”? Well this one is “nobody”. Shiffman is so taken by his one idea, that he pushes it past the point of utility into being less useful than the idea he’s trying to replace. Plus he spends way too much time getting into the minutia with his various examples.

General Thoughts

Answering the question of, “Why should everyone read this book?” is difficult. For this one I have to answer the opposite question, which of course is far easier. Given how many books are out there, to a first approximation the vast majority of books are read by nobody. Why should this book be any different? I suppose the next question is, if the book shouldn’t be read, is there a point in reviewing it either? Particularly as one of the highly selective reviews of the world renowned We Are Not Saved blog?

Perhaps not, but given that I read it for a book club I ended up with some fairly extensive notes, and it would be a shame to let all that go to waste.

Shiffman’s one big idea is to note the similarities between the actions of violent organizations and the actions of normal businesses. Pointing out how both are responding to market forces and financial incentives. This is useful and interesting, but Shiffman is so taken by the idea that he tries to squeeze everything into that framework. I think this could have been a far more useful book if he had also used this model to draw a contrast between violent organizations and businesses. A couple of examples:

First, I have a friend who feels that a disproportionate number of people at the highest levels of business and government are psychopaths. If you also believe that, and also believe Shiffman, then it’s not surprising that you would also find psychopaths at the head of violent organizations. But clearly rising to be the head of the Medellín Cartel, or the Lord’s Resistance Army, or Al Qaeda selects for psychopathy to a far greater degree than being the head of a Fortune 500 company. And I would be inclined to argue that it is this quality that is more predictive of success in a violent organization than being a savvy businessman. Shiffman talks about sadism, but dismisses it as being only a tiny part of the story. I would argue that it’s one of the key differentiators between a normal business and a violent organization. But since Shiffman’s project is to minimize these differences, he also minimizes its role.

Second, Shiffman talks extensively about how important ties of family and ideology are to the cohesion and success of violent organizations. That: 

People face scarcity, and so have almost constant need for others: need to know the “us” and the “them” so we know who to look out for and who will look out for us when matters of survival and growth arise. Issues such as “radical Islam” matter only in the way that branding and marketing matter for a firm.

But family and ideology generally aren’t that big of a deal in a normal business, and comparing “radical Islam” to branding and marketing, is a gross exaggeration of the power of marketing and a gross understatement of the appeal of radical Islam. 

In both of these cases leaning into the contrast between the two would have been more informative than what Shiffman did, which was to lean into the similarities.

Yes, there are similarities between violent organizations and business, but this is neither as groundbreaking nor as widespread an insight as Shiffman thinks.


The Hobbit, or There and Back Again 

by: J. R. R. Tolkien

320 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

I assume everyone knows what this book is about.

Who should read to this book?

Actually, as with the majority of the books, though I’m coy about it, I listened to this book. Specifically I wanted to listen to The Hobbit as narrated by Andy Serkis (the guy who did the voice and motion capture for Gollum in the movies.)

General Thoughts

The book is even better than I remembered. And I remembered it as being very good. Serkis’ narration was also a delight, as expected. If you need some “comfort” listening over the holidays, it would be hard to do better than this.


Chorazin: (The Weird of Hali #3) 

by: John Michael Greer

255 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

It’s the next book in the “What if the elder gods were the good guys?” series.

Who should read this book?

If for some reason you’ve started this series (perhaps on my recommendation) then there’s nothing in this book that should make you stop.

General Thoughts

This book spent a fair amount of time on world building, which was nice, though that did make the first part drag a little bit. But I thought the action and reveal at the end were satisfying enough to make up for it. As I have said in my past reviews, the chief appeal of this series is its premise. If the premise sounds appealing to you then you’ll probably like the book. If you have no idea what an elder god is, and the name Cthulhu means nothing to you then I would avoid these books.


The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia 

by: Peter Hopkirk

564 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

The Central Asian rivalry between the United Kingdom and Russia which played out during the 19th Century.

Who should read this book?

If you like good history, then you’ll appreciate this book. Though make sure to read it with a map handy because you won’t have heard of most of the places where the action takes place.

General Thoughts

In some of my previous posts on Afghanistan I mentioned Mohammad Najibullah, the last president of Afghanistan while it was controlled/supported by the Soviets. In between Najibullah’s capture by the mujahideen and his execution by the Taliban he spent his time translating this book into Pashtun so that the Afghans could better understand how they got to where they are. To the best of my understanding the translation was unfinished when he died. But I can see why he undertook the project, if I hadn’t read about the history of things I’m not sure I would have believed it myself. 

The book is worth reading just for the story of the First Anglo-Afghan War, or as the British call it the Disaster in Afghanistan. Take the biggest military fiasco you can imagine, multiply it by 10 and then imagine the most cinematic ending possible, and that’s the story. Essentially of the 16,500 British citizens, soldiers and camp followers who started the retreat from Kabul, only one nearly dead assistant surgeon made it to safety.

I’m something of a collector of horrible, preventable tragedies and this is one of the most terrible ones I’ve encountered. It makes me wonder if anyone associated with the recent withdrawal from Afghanistan had read this book, because beyond all of the interesting historical events, the book is obviously still relevant today. Up until a few months ago we were still fighting over Afghanistan. We’re still trying to figure out what to do in Central Asia. And we’re still suffering massive, preventable tragedies.

III- Religious Observation

The Deep Places: A Memoir of Illness and Discovery 

Before leaving the book entirely I wanted to briefly include a comment about Douthat’s religion. Obviously Douthat’s faith is a big part of who he is and how he went about recovering. And there was one story in particular which really struck me, because Douthat describes an interaction with God which is almost an exact parallel to some of my own experiences with God:

On the last morning, I was up early as always and I carried my son, now six months old and heavy, down the long, low-tide strip of sand. The pain was mostly in one shoulder, though I knew it would be somewhere else soon enough. There was a spot where the sand gave way to barnacled rocks bewigged with seaweed, where the tide met the stones; sometimes in her youth, my mother had found sand dollars there. I had never found one in decades of looking, and over time it had become a game I played – If I find one today, it means that God exists. If I find one today, it means that the girl I have a crush on has a crush on me. If I find one today, it means I’ll get into the college I want. If I find one today, it means…

Inevitably, I had been playing the game all that vacation week, casually glancing in the shallows as I waded with my kids.

If I find one it means I will get better.

If I find one it means I will get better.

If I find one it means I will get better.

On that last day, though, I was in too much pain to play. I held my son in my right arm, watching the seagulls sweep above, feeling the fire spread down my left arm and side. At a certain point, the combination of beauty and agony broke me, and I began to sob there, on the empty sandbar beside the flat, blue bay, while my son cooed curiously, and from somewhere in the depths I came out with a desperate, rasping croak.

“Help me, God. Why won’t you help me?”

My eyes dropped to the water. There between my feet, as tiny as a nickel and as pale as a wedding dress, was the only sand dollar I have ever found.


I don’t think that everyone should read my blog, but neither do I think nobody should read it either. Rather I think you should read it if you think the next 20 years are going to be particularly difficult to navigate. And you should donate to it if you think I might in some sense be helping to navigate it better. 


The 8.5 Books I Finished in October

If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post:

Or download the MP3


  1. Tyranny of Merit: What’s Become of the Common Good? by: Michael J. Sandel
  2. Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills by: Jesse Singal
  3. Kingsport: (The Weird of Hali #2) by: John Michael Greer
  4. The General vs. the President: MacArthur and Truman at the Brink of Nuclear War by: H. W. Brands
  5. Based on a True Story: Not a Memoir by: Norm Macdonald
  6. The Silmarillion by: J. R. R. Tolkien
  7. The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by: Carlo M. Cipolla
  8. The Last Place on Earth: Scott and Amundsen’s Race to the South Pole by: Roland Huntford
  9. How God Works: The Science Behind the Benefits of Religion by: David DeSteno

Over the last few months I’ve been enjoying Holden Karnofsky’s newsletter “Cold Takes”. One of his central arguments is that this is the most important century. 

In this opinion we are basically aligned, but whereas I am largely pessimistic about our ability to handle the ramifications of this moment, Karnofsky is more of an optimist. Perhaps I’ll go into his assertions more on some other occasion, but for now I merely wanted to provide some context around Karnofsky before I introduce his deplorable advice on how one should read books. Which, since I’m about to review a bunch of books I’ve read, would appear to be germane

He starts off with the idea that we overestimate how much we retain from reading a book. Which is almost certainly true. Though I think his assertion suffers from never going to the trouble of rigorously defining the word “retain”. Is retention measured by telling someone to write down everything they remembered from the book, and comparing it to the actual book? Or is it measured by being able to summon forth a point from the book when it’s relevant? Or could someone be said to retain something if they can call it to mind after being prompted:

Do you remember that part in Dune when Paul chooses his name?

Oh, yeah. He asks the name of the mouse shadow in the second moon. And they tell him that they call it Muad’dib. And that’s the name he chooses.

Additionally his measurement of retention is just a percentage—what portion of the book was retained using the various methods (skimming, reading slowly, re-reading, etc.) And beyond the fact that his percentages are ridiculous, which I’ll get to, certain parts of a book are far more valuable to retain than other parts. The first 10%, the stuff that everyone knows about the book, is likely to be in such common circulation that any interesting insights will similarly be widely available. Whereas the 10% you extract after reading the whole thing, or reading it multiple times is likely to be the most valuable, or at least the rarest.

But I’m sure you want to know why I think his percentages are ridiculous. You should check out his post if you want to see his entire table but to give you a couple of examples. He asserts that the percent you understand and retain after reading just the title is 10%, that skimming it raises that to 12%, reading the book quickly pushes it to 13% and reading it slowly pushes it all the way to 15%. The entire progression is ridiculous, but I’m particularly flabbergasted by his contention that you can get 2/3rds of the value out of slowly reading a book if you just read the title. 

Beyond his exaggeration of the importance of reading titles, he contends that in general it’s a far better use of your time to read what other people are saying about the book then it is to read the book itself. And this is where we return to the idea of the varying quality of retaining some parts of the book vs. retaining other parts of the book. As an example if you were to compare my book reviews to the reviews found on Amazon you would find that I’m frequently talking about the book in a way that no one else is. Which means my insights can only come from reading the actual book, not reading what other people say about the book, because no one is saying what I am. Now this still leaves unaddressed the question of whether my insights have any value, I could just be insane. I’ll let you be the judge of that:


I- Eschatological Reviews

Tyranny of Merit: What’s Become of the Common Good?

by: Michael J. Sandel

342 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

As meritocracy has become more deeply entrenched it has begun to take the form of a system of morality, where being successful equals having moral worth.

Who should read this book?

At any given moment some books are part of the larger conversation. This is one of those books, and if you want a better understanding of the conversation around meritocracy you should read it. 

General Thoughts

The book opens with by recounting the admissions scandal which ensnared people like Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin. Sandel chooses this story because it’s a clear example of merit-seeking corruption. But beyond this it illustrates that it’s not actual merit the parents were seeking—I haven’t come across anything indicating these parents were “tiger moms” obsessed with making their children practice various skills—no, what they were buying was the appearance of merit. While he didn’t reference it, Sandel essentially wrote a book length treatment of Campbell’s law (and also the closely related, Goodhart’s law) as it applied to merit:

The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.

This is also closely related to the discussion from a few years ago when Bryan Caplan published his book, The Case Against Education, which argued that college was not about knowledge and increasing human capital, it was about signalling intelligence, conscientiousness, and conformity. The book also reminded me a lot of Freddie deBoer’s book, Cult of Smart, which I read back in April. As I mentioned already there is definitely a robust conversation around this topic. 

If I were to try to distill out Sandel’s contribution to the topic, I would say he really leans into the moral angle of the whole phenomenon. The idea that if we assume this is a meritocracy, then we further have to assume that positions are earned. That the poor deserve to be poor and the rich deserve to be rich. And gradually the definition of deserve creeps from an evaluation of economic worth in a capitalist system to moral worth in a more transcendent system.

In large part this happens because those in charge are incentivized to move the definition in this direction. Not only that, but it only takes a little bit of bias to believe this narrative. Meritocracy has made it so that at least some hard work is required to succeed, people are no longer born to positions. Therefore those at the top of the meritocracy will emphasize their hard work while overlooking outside help and luck.

It’s the dash of hard work with the ratcheting effect of the bias that, in Sandel’s account, differentiates meritocracy from previous social systems. Which takes us to:

Eschatological Implications

Meritocracy is a relatively new invention. Previous to it’s introduction religion and nobility were the primary systems for deciding who was in charge. In both cases people quite obviously ended up in positions of power without any hard work. One might think that this is a bad thing, and it almost certainly was for the people who were subject to this power, but it was a good thing for the system as a whole because it forced a certain amount of humility to be present. It didn’t force every individual to be humble, but the system as a whole necessarily created some humility. 

As Sandel points out:

[T]he more we think of ourselves as self-made and self-sufficient, the harder it is to learn gratitude and humility. And without these sentiments, it is hard to care for the common good.

The meritocratic concept of being self-made is also something which wasn’t present in the past systems. Under a system of nobility you were always answerable to some higher noble. Unless you were the King, and indeed that was also generally the failure point in the system. Under a system of religion you were always answerable to God. Or rather the actions of people in power would be circumscribed by the perception of their righteousness. You could only ratchet your own importance so much.

Now I understand that this overview of past systems has overlooked all kinds of nuance and exceptions, and been largely written from a Western, Christian perspective. But I think Sandel is right in pointing out that the incentives of meritocracy have produced some weird, and pernicious outcomes. None of which is to say that Sandel is advocating for a return to earlier systems. And, while I think the world needs more religion, neither am I.

For all the harms caused by meritocracy, I’m still glad that doctors, pilots, and politicians (mostly) are selected by merit. And it may be that meritocracy is similar to democracy. The worst system except for all those other systems that have been tried from time to time. Let us hope that this continues to be the case. But there is an argument to be made that the harms of meritocracy are multiplying at the same time that its benefits are diminishing.


Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills

by: Jesse Singal

334 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

The way in which the popularization of psychology has incentivized scientists to produce “quick fixes”, even if they have to ignore the scientific process in order to do so. 

Who should read this book?

If you’ve noticed the parade of techniques that are supposed to be the solution to everything, from improving self esteem, to positive psychology and emphasizing grit. Techniques that flare in a blinding fashion before fading into irrelevance, this book is for you.

General Thoughts

For anyone who’s been following the replication crisis this book will not be surprising. Though I’m sure you’ll still come across stuff that you hadn’t heard. For myself I had forgotten about the panic over super predators and I had no idea that positive psychology had essentially taken over the military. 

But of course this latter example illustrates the point, these concepts have, when ascendent, penetrated nearly everywhere. Even power posing, which always seemed a little bit silly, ended up being prominently featured in the book Lean In by Sheryl Sandberg which spawned a whole movement around women in the workplace. Nor has power posing been entirely abandoned, it still has it’s defenders.

But eventually after this moment in the spotlight the principles fade, the results don’t match the hype, and (hopefully) the science eventually catches up Though, rather than being abashed that they fell for yet another fad, people immediately start looking for the next fad, the next golden bullet to solve all the problems.

Interestingly, though Singal approaches with caution, his book ends by speaking approvingly of nudges. Targeted, and limited interventions designed to accomplish very narrow aims. The classic example is the idea that people donate more to their 401k if you make them have to opt out of it, rather than opting into it. I get this, but whatever his caution I think Singal may be falling for some of the same faddish adulation he’s decrying everywhere else. 

I think the nudges that work best are just people exercising a little more intelligence when they design systems, like the 401k example. I think other nudges will appear to work initially, but then the effectiveness will fade with time. My power company tries one of the classic nudges with me every month. They show my power usage with respect to my neighbors. And initially, when I saw that I used more power I tried various things to use less, as intended, but then when it kept coming in high I realized that there were (at the time) six people in my house. And two retirees in most of the houses I was being compared against. And now even though there are fewer people in my house I haven’t looked at those comparisons in months, nor do I care much what they show. 

All of which is to say that individual nudges may have a small effect but the concept of nudges as a new tool that will change everything (particularly divorced from any larger concepts, a point I’ll get to it a bit) is yet another fad that will fade. Which Singal allows for, but maybe not enough.

Eschatological Implications

I think most of the implications here are one’s I’ve already spent a lot of time covering in this space. For the last few centuries progress and science have given people a reason to be optimistic about the future. But it’s been apparent for a while that we were running out of things for science to revolutionize. However there was always one thing left on the list, and it’s been on the list of things to improve for at least the last century and probably longer than that. Of course I’m talking about humanity. Quick Fix is both valuable and depressing. Valuable for the truths it points out, depressing in that one of those truths is that humanity is becoming more intractable rather than less. Meaning that if you want to be optimistic about the future, science no longer provides that. If you want optimism you have to find it in the perfectibility of humanity which every day seems more impossible.


II- Capsule Reviews

Kingsport: (The Weird of Hali #2) 

by: John Michael Greer

247 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A young girl who reconnects with her extended family who are worshippers of the Elder Gods. Only unlike most novels of this sort, such worshippers are the good guys.

Who should read this book?

Greer mostly writes non-fiction and I think his fiction writing somewhat reflects that, thus you should read the book only if you feel intrigued by its unique premise.

General Thoughts

After reading the first book in this series I was kind of underwhelmed. I had enjoyed it, but I felt it hadn’t crossed the line into being exceptional. I intended to finish the series, just because that’s what I always intend, even if it never happens, but I wasn’t particularly excited for the next book. 

But, as the months went by I found myself unable to stop thinking about it, and more and more eager to find out where Greer was going to go with this unique “worshipers of the elder gods are the good guys” premise. So I picked up the second book, and once again the writing was a little dry, and the characters were a little bit flat, but the premise continues to be endlessly fascinating, and I’m really interested to see what happens in the rest of the books.


The General vs. the President: MacArthur and Truman at the Brink of Nuclear War

by: H. W. Brands

448 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The post World War II career of General MacArther, and in particular his conflict with Truman over the conduct of the Korean War. 

Who should read this book?

If you like history and biography at all this is one of the better examples I’ve come across. Also if you feel like you have a blindspot when it comes to the Korean War this is a great entry point.

General Thoughts

The book starts out by talking about how much the Japanese revered General MacArthur. I’m curious to know if that’s still the case. (I have a friend in Japan I’ve been meaning to ask but I haven’t gotten around to it.) It’s nice that it starts out that way because the remainder of the book is increasingly hard on him, and by the end he doesn’t come out looking very good. Which I think is the impression I absorbed of him growing up in the 70s and 80s. (Certainly the show M.A.S.H. didn’t help.) Obviously I had heard about Truman firing him, but it always felt more like a piece of trivia than a national scandal. This book definitely made me feel the magnitude of the act. And the magnitude of the Korean War, which is another thing which doesn’t carry the weight it deserves, stuck as it is between Vietnam and World War II.

If you’ll forgive me for going on a brief eschatological tangent, one of the really interesting things about the Korean War is how pivotal it was when it came to the question of nuclear weapons. At this point it was still an open question whether nukes were going to be just another weapon in a countries arsenal or whether they were going to be treated as being on a whole, separate, almost unthinkable level. It’s a credit to Truman that it was the latter not the former.

One of the things I did in October, which didn’t get mentioned in the intro, was I took a trip to Albuquerque to visit family. While there I visited the National Museum of Nuclear Science & History. I highly recommend it, particularly for those who have any doubts about the unclear status of nuclear weapons in the 50’s. You’ll see all manner of things including nuclear artillery and the infamous nuclear bazooka

To the extent I have a criticism and it’s a very small one, this book, despite its subtitle, might have been even better if Brands had spent more time examining this inflection point in the use of nuclear weapons.


Based on a True Story: Not a Memoir

by: Norm Macdonald

242 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A somewhat surreal pseudo-memoir of Norm Macdonald. About 99% untrue, but 100% of his essence. Perhaps if Vonnegut had written Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, this is what would have come out.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who REALLY liked Norm Macdonald already has. But if, like me, you only truly recognized his genius once it was gone, this is a great way to both bask in it and pay homage to it.

General Thoughts

I was not a hardcore Norm Macdonald fan. He was rather someone I wanted to hear more from, but never got around to it. When he died, that snapped me into action and I picked up his book. It was the audio version and he did the narration which was great. 

I think the comment I made about Vonnegut and Hunter S. Thompson sums it up pretty well. This book is not for everyone, and it’s pretty crass to boot. But if you felt like Macdonald was taken too soon this is a great way to celebrate his comedic genius. 


The Silmarillion 

by: J. R. R. Tolkien

480 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

If the Lord of the Rings is the New Testament, The Silmarillion is the Old. It’s a record of all the things that happened beforehand which were only alluded to in the trilogy. It’s also far more tragic.

Who should read this book?

I’m not sure. I don’t know anyone who likes The Silmarillion, who doesn’t already like the Lord of the Rings, but liking LotR is no guarantee that you’ll like this book. I only know a few people who love it. 

General Thoughts

I am one of those who love The Silmarillion. My favorite scene from the trilogy is when Gandalf confronts the Lord of the Nazguls at the gates of Minas Tirith. The Silmarillion is full of scenes like that. It can do this because it covers thousands of years, and it basically only includes these scenes. As a consequence of this there is very little in the way of character development. And while there is something of an overarching plot the book is not a novel, it’s a collection of myths. And as such it’s not for everyone. But after reading it this time, I think I actually like it better than the original trilogy. 

On this read through one scene in particular really moved me. It concerns Húrin, a mighty warrior, who ends up being imprisoned in the dungeons of the dark lord for 28 years before he is finally released. Wandering about, old and bowed down he comes across his wife, sitting at the graves of his children:

But Húrin did not look at the stone, for he knew what was written there; and his eyes had seen that he was not alone. Sitting in the shadow of the stone there was a woman, bent over her knees; and as Húrin stood there silent she cast back her tattered hood and lifted her face. Grey she was and old, but suddenly her eyes looked into his, and he knew her; for though they were wild and full of fear, that light still gleamed in them that long ago had earned for her the name [Morwen], proudest and most beautiful of mortal women in the days of old.

‘You come at last,’ she said. ‘I have waited too long.’

‘It was a dark road. I have come as I could,’ he answered.

‘But you are too late,’ said Morwen. ‘They are lost.’

‘I know it,’ he said. ‘But you are not.’

But Morwen said: ‘Almost. I am spent. I shall go with the sun…

…and they sat beside the stone, and did not speak again; and when the sun went down Morwen sighed and clasped his hand, and was still; and Húrin knew that she had died. 


The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

by: Carlo M. Cipolla

64 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The 5 Laws of human stupidity.

Who should read this book?

The introduction is by Nassim Taleb. If that sounds like the kind of thing that would appeal to you, you should read this book. Also it’s super short (this is my ½ book for the month.)

General Thoughts

Here are the five laws of human stupidity:

  1. Always and Inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.
  2. The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.
  3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.
  4. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.
  5. Stupid people are the most dangerous kind of people. A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.

The rules are interesting, but it’s the idea of the bandit that’s going to stick with me. Cipolla divides people into four quadrants:

  1. The Intelligent: Those who act in such a way that it benefits themselves and others.
  2. The Bandits: Those who act to benefit themselves while causing harm to others.
  3. The Helpless: Those who harm themselves while benefiting others. (I feel like there should be a better term for this than helpless.)
  4. The Stupid: Those who cause harm to both themselves and others. 

He further divides the bandit in two. Bandits who help themselves more than they harm others— so on net they benefit society. And bandits who harm others more than they help themselves—someone who breaks a $500 car window to steal the $5 in change sitting in the center console. Obviously, just by the nature of banditry the latter type is far more common than the former. But I think the former has an interesting place in the capitalist structure. Particularly when you start to consider harms that are more diffuse.


The Last Place on Earth: Scott and Amundsen’s Race to the South Pole

by: Roland Huntford

640 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The lives of Robert Falcon Scott and Roald Amundsen and their race for the South Pole.  

Who should read this book?

Anyone who likes stories of survival and exploration, but it also works as a business book.

General Thoughts

To start with I’m glad I read The Man Who Ate His Boots before reading this. The foundation it gave me on the previous era of arctic exploration was very helpful particularly at the beginning of this book.

As far as the book itself, my sense of Scott was developed in a similar fashion to my sense of MacArthur. I had evidently picked up some stuff by osmosis. Before reading this book I had a vague sense of Scott’s heroism and a vague annoyance with Amundsen, but if you had asked me to explain where I got those impressions I would have been unable to point to anything specific. Having read the book I’m not surprised by those opinions, they’re basically the opinions which suffuse the anglosphere. Though the fact that I was unaware of this osmosis might bear further examination. Particularly since the impressions I had were entirely wrong. Everyone should strive to emulate Amundsen, while Scott should be a cautionary tale for anyone engaged in any high risk endeavor.

So how is it that the conventional wisdom is lukewarm towards Amundsen, while Scott is still thought of with reverence? There are three factors: first, whatever other faults Scott may have had he was a gifted writer, and when his journal was published posthumously (and also after some extensive editing) it gave the whole enterprise a heroic narrative, which bore only a passing resemblance to reality. Second, Scott died. Objectively this can’t help but count against him, but emotionally it ends up providing a huge boost to someone’s reputation to die young. Also there’s this sense that Amundsen, by being close and winning the race, somehow contributed to it. Third, Scott’s journey was more exciting.

It’s this last bit that I want to focus on in particular, and what makes this something of a business book. How often do we judge people’s efforts by how many near death experiences come out of it, rather than how safe and effective it was. Certainly the near death stories are more exciting and get retold more often. In this case Scott was heroic because he died, while Amundsen was not because his expedition was meticulously planned and executed. Of course what we should want is not excitement and heroism, we should want things to be meticulously planned and executed. But that’s often not the way people think. 

I wonder if movies have made this problem worse? Something to chew on.


III- Religious Reviews

How God Works: The Science Behind the Benefits of Religion

by: David DeSteno

256 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

How most of the stuff scientists think of for improving humanity is already being done by religion and in a more effective fashion.

Who should read this book?

People who want their support of religion confirmed or people who think that religion is entirely valueless.

General Thoughts

This book makes the argument I’ve long made. That religion isn’t a harmful batch of superstitions that idiots waste their time with, but rather a rigorously evolved package of beneficial behaviors. So in a very broad sense it’s supportive of one of the core missions of the blog. But as I’ve spent a lot of time already on that subject I’d like to talk about the interesting addendum it provides to one of the previous books I reviewed, Quick Fix.

To begin with, DeSteno’s point is very similar to Singal’s. There are no quick fixes. If you want to change human behavior it takes something massive and integrated; something that has been developed over centuries. Nor are these changes massive, mostly they are small improvements, but there are improvements which last, they’re not transitory. 

But then interestingly DeSteno ends up in the same place as Singal, talking about nudges. And there’s this sense that for DeSteno that’s all religion is. (DeSteno himself is not a believer.) That it’s a collection of nudges. For example, we know meditation is good, religion tells you to pray which is a nudge to meditate. And indeed that’s probably all that DeSteno’s data can tell him, but I think he’s only scratching the surface on the benefits of religion. That nudges are just what can quickly be measured, that the benefits of religion are mostly felt over the span of decades. This is also the scope for the harms of its absence to be felt as well. Harms which every day seem more and more apparent.


I guess this end bit that I always do is also a nudge. Let’s hope it’s one that is bundled up into a larger system of value rather than one of those nudges that fade with time. Either way if you have felt the nudge to donate, give into that impulse, it’s what science would want you to do. 


The 9 Books I Finished in September

If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post:

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  1. The Rise and Triumph of the Modern Self: Cultural Amnesia, Expressive Individualism, and the Road to Sexual Revolution by: Carl R. Trueman
  2. Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future by: Elizabeth Kolbert
  3. Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t by: Julia Galef
  4. Hero of Two Worlds: The Marquis de Lafayette in the Age of Revolution by: Mike Duncan
  5. This Is How You Lose the Time War by: Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone
  6. Slanted: How the News Media Taught Us to Love Censorship and Hate Journalism by: Sharyl Attkisson
  7. Plato: Complete Works by: Plato
  8. Stillness Is the Key by: Ryan Holiday
  9. The Sorrows of Young Werther by: Goethe

I’ve been watching a lot of Big Bang Theory. As something of a sacrilege I watch it at 2x, so a normal 20 minute episode ends up being a 10 minute break. Which takes it from an irresponsible indulgence to a perfectly acceptable “10 minute break”. I guess having given you an insight into my strange little world I shouldn’t hesitate to reveal the full extent of my madness. Episodes of the show actually range in length from 18 minutes to 22 minutes. So I set the speed increase such that it always takes 10 minutes—1.8x for the 18 minute episodes and 2.2x for 22 minute episodes. I’m not taking a break of about 10 minutes, I’m taking a 10 minute break!

I bring this up because Chuck Lorre, the creator of the show, always ends each episode with a message on his vanity card. In the course of reading each of these cards you gain a glimpse into his life (for example you find out more than you might expect about his love life). As I sat down to write this intro I realized that it’s sort of similar to what I do here. Once a month I briefly pause in my jeremiads to give you a brief glimpse into what’s going on in the world outside of my writing. I get the feeling that Chuck Lorre found it therapeutic. That’s probably one of the reasons I do it as well.

As far as what happened in September, it was busy. I went to Gencon and my son got married. The marriage was excellent and beautiful. The convention was enjoyable but also a glimpse into the impact and the weirdness of COVID. My favorite restaurant in Indy is St. Elmo’s, but I can only afford to go there once. My second favorite restaurant, Claddagh, which I sometimes went to 3 or 4 times, did not survive the pandemic. This was surprisingly heartbreaking. Though it would have been less so if my third favorite restaurant, The Ram, hadn’t also succumbed. And then there’s the weirdness of the pandemic theater. As just one example they set an attendance cap at 60% of normal. Implying that there’s some level of transmission which happens when you gather in groups of 50,000 which doesn’t happen when gather in groups of 30,000

But of course the most important news of all is that I didn’t catch COVID, which was good, because if I had, I would have missed the wedding, and my wife would have killed me.


I- Eschatological Reviews

The Rise and Triumph of the Modern Self: Cultural Amnesia, Expressive Individualism, and the Road to Sexual Revolution

by: Carl R. Trueman

426 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

The trend, starting with Rousseau, of people deriving truth from an inner sense of authenticity rather than an external sacred order.

Who should read this book?

Probably anyone who’s interested in a better understanding of the modern world. 

General Thoughts

I heard Trueman give a presentation about his book at an LDS apologetics conference I attended back in August. (Trueman himself is not LDS.) Even just based on the limited information he was able to pass along in his 45 minute presentation I knew I wanted to read the book immediately. It did not disappoint, and the cursory overview given by his presentation did in fact accurately foreshadow a deep philosophical treatise I’m still trying to process. As a result my “general thoughts” are still coalescing, but I’ll see what I can do. 

Trueman builds off the work of a lot of other authors including Philip Rieff, and Charles Taylor. I’ve already read a couple of books by Charles Taylor, but Rieff was unknown to me. I may have to add him to my list because he presents a very intriguing framework. 

Rieff imagines four stages of development for civilization. First there was “political man”. This was followed by “religious man”, who was then eventually displaced by “economic man”. Before we finally arrive at our current state which is “psychological man”. I’m not sure how I feel about his first stage, as I said I should probably read some of his books. But the other three stages, and particularly the last one, feel dead on.

For Rieff the psychological man is:

…a type characterized not so much by finding identity in outward directed activities as was true for the previous types but rather in the inward quest for personal psychological happiness.

In Trueman’s reading of Rieff it becomes apparent that the “psychological man” demands a “therapeutic culture”, where:

…the only moral criterion that can be applied to behavior is whether it conduces to the feeling of well-being in the individuals concerned. Ethics, therefore, becomes a function of feeling.

All of this ties into the idea of authenticity, which Trueman pinpoints as starting with Rousseau, but which is then expanded on by a host of other philosophers including Nietzsche, Marx and Freud. Freud’s contribution becomes particularly important to understanding the current world as he’s the one who identifies sex as the most important part of psychological happiness and individual well-being.

Pulling all of this together, truth does not originate from a sacred external order or anything external period. Individual preferences become the only source of truth and the deeper the preferences the more truth they contain. Sexual preferences are the deepest preferences of all which is how LBGTQ+ issues (the acronym Trueman uses) become the most important and truest things of all. 

This becomes both an epistemology and a distributed teleology which has profound… 

Eschatological Implications

When I decided to focus on eschatology I said I wanted to expand it to focus on things lower down the scale than just the end of the world. That I wanted to talk about the end of culture. This book is an excellent opportunity to do just that. 

Continuing with Rieff, he asserts that culture is derived from having an external sacred order. He’s not alone in this Samuel Huntington makes essentially the same argument in Clash of Civilizations. That a civilization in its proper sense must inevitably be attached to a religion. 

So what happens to a culture when you dispense with religion and a sacred order? When you start to derive all truth from internal claims of authenticity? In that case you have no culture. Everyone is a culture unto themselves. Rieff calls this an “anticulture”. Trueman asserts that this is exactly what has happened.

He doesn’t spend much time going beyond this assertion into predictions of what will happen to a civilization which ends up with an anticulture in place of a culture, he’s mostly interested in identifying things rather than prognostication. But in the best case it has to be radically different, and in the worst case (the most likely case?) it would appear to be entirely unsustainable. If for no other reason than it’s lack of cohesion.

As I mentioned, Trueman draws the path to our current situation through a lot of different philosophers, including Nietzche. In particular he mentions the madman passage from The Gay Science, which contains the famous assertion that “God is Dead”. I’ve been a big fan of this passage for quite a while. I even wrote a whole post about it. But this time around I was struck with how it ended:

Here the madman fell silent and looked again at his listeners; and they, too, were silent and stared at him in astonishment. At last he threw his lantern on the ground, and it broke into pieces and went out. “I have come too early,” he said then; “my time is not yet. This tremendous event is still on its way, still wandering; it has not yet reached the ears of men. Lightning and thunder require time; the light of the stars requires time; deeds, though done, still require time to be seen and heard. This deed is still more distant from them than most distant stars—and yet they have done it themselves.

Trueman is not the first to complain about the disintegration of morality, the distortion of ethics, or the downfall of civilization. But perhaps all those who came before him came too early. After reading this book it kind of feels like it has all come together. That I finally understand the madman’s warning.


Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future

by: Elizabeth Kolbert

256 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

To quote from the book, “This [is] a book about people trying to solve problems created by people trying to solve problems.” Specifically environmental problems.

Who should read this book?

If you’re looking for a reasonably pragmatic book about the damage to the environment caused by humans and the hard trade-offs faced by people trying to solve those problems, this is the book for you.

General Thoughts

Most of the examples in this book follow a fairly predictable pattern. Humans want to do X. X causes environmental issues, but by the time anyone realizes the extent of the issues it’s too late to stop doing X. So they come up with some idea Y which will hopefully allow them to continue doing X only without the issues. Sometimes there’s a chain of such causes and effects. For example:

Back in the 50’s and 60’s people were using lots of pesticides and herbicides. These chemicals were getting into the water and causing issues. This was part of what inspired Rachel Carson to write Silent Spring. As one might have hoped, Carson didn’t merely use the book to complain, she also offered solutions. One of her recommended solutions was that instead of using pesticides and herbicides you could set one biological agent against another. As people looked for ways of taking this advice and furthermore complying with things like the Clean Water Act Asian carp became very attractive “biological agents”. It was thought they could get rid of invasive weeds, clean algae from the water and eat pests. Accordingly the Fish And Wildlife service deliberately brought them over to America… Where they promptly ended up basically everywhere

This quote from the book is illustrative:

“At the time, everybody was looking for a way to clean up the environment,” Mike Freeze, a biologist who worked with carp at the Arkansas Game and Fish Commision, told me, “Rachel Carson had written Silent Spring, and everybody was concerned about all the chemicals in the water. They weren’t nearly as concerned about non-native species, which is unfortunate.”

I said they ended up basically everywhere, that is everywhere in the Mississippi River Basin, but so far they’re not in the Great Lakes Basin. And people are desperate to keep it that way. This wouldn’t be very difficult except, in order to solve yet another environmental problem, Chicago sewage, a canal was dug which connected the Great Lakes to the Mississippi. And now this canal is the front line in the war against carp. Of course some have suggested that they just reintroduce “hydrologic separation”. The Army Corps of Engineers studied the problem and determined that indeed it would be the most effective solution, but it would also take 25 years to accomplish and cost $18 billion.

Currently they use an electrical barrier and a few years back when they had to shut it down for routine maintenance they used 2000 gallons of poison which resulted in 27 tons of dead fish. Not an ideal solution, but that’s basically the point of the book. There are no ideal solutions.

Eschatological Implications

Of course the biggest X of all is humanity’s desire to burn fossil fuels for power. And the book’s title comes from one of the Y’s which have been suggested for dealing with the environmental damage this has caused. The Y is geoengineering, specifically injecting things like sulfates or calcites into the atmosphere as a way of blocking solar radiation, which would cause the sky to turn from blue to white.

As you might imagine, debate over geoengineering is fierce, and merely exploring it as a potential solution has provoked death threats directed at the scientists involved. And while I don’t at all condone death threats, I do understand why people would be hesitant.

Interventions often backfire, I just provided two examples of exactly that. And it would be hard to make any guarantees that geoengineering won’t have harmful, unforeseen second order effects. That said, not all interventions backfire, some end up saving the lives of millions. If we have a default expectation that they will backfire it’s most likely because those interventions that do, get all of the attention. 

Here’s where eschatology comes into play. It’s as if we’re being offered our choice of dooms. We can allow global warming to proceed without attempting any interventions and hope that climate change skeptics are right. (Though oftentimes that skepticism comes from an assumption that we will do some geoengineering.) Or we can intervene, and assume that the world with intervention will be better than the world without intervention, once everything is accounted for. All that said, the book does point out that it’s much easier to ruin an ecosystem than to run one.

There is of course the idea that we will reverse warming by cutting emissions and sequestering carbon in the atmosphere, but I get the feeling that this author, like many of the people I’ve read, thinks that’s as likely as reimposing hydrological separation between the Mississippi and Great Lakes.


II- Capsule Reviews

Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t 

by: Julia Galef

288 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

An overview and introduction for how to think rationally. A book length defense of mistake theory over conflict theory.

Who should read this book?

This is something of a self-help book written using the framework of rationality. If either of those terms (“self-help” or “rationality”) sound attractive you should read this book. If you’re on the fence I would read Scott Alexander’s review of it (hopefully in addition to mine.)

General Thoughts

Scout Mindset as another work to emerge out of the Bay Area rationality movement. The movement itself is another in a long series of attempts at developing a philosophy for how people should act. With the ultimate goal of making the world a better place.

In order to accomplish this you need some way of spreading that philosophy. Traditionally this has taken the form of a book, something that you could give to someone and say “Here. Read this. It will change your life.” In similar fashion to how those attempting to spread Christianity might give someone a Bible. Scout Mindset is attempting to fill that role for rationality.

Previous contenders for the job were The Sequences (published in book form under the title Rationality: AI to Zombies) and Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. Both of these contenders were written by Eliezer Yudkowsky, and suffered from many deficiencies, of which perhaps the greatest was that both clocked in at over 1500 pages. In a past post, as a way of illustrating my point, I observed that the idea of someone in prison reading the Bible and converting to Christianity is so common as to be a cliche. The idea of someone reading the Sequences and becoming a rationalist, on the other hand, is so strange as to sound like the premise for a sitcom. 

Scout Mindset gets much closer to this mark than any of the other two contenders. It’s not only short, it’s also well written, and easy to understand. This last point is particularly important because we’re not talking about just improving the way that smart people act, or people who live in the Bay Area. Ideally if any philosophy for improving the world is going to be successful it has to be something that can work with anyone. 

I don’t claim to be an expert on the ideology of rationality, though I have read the entirety of The Sequences, HPMOR, and every last Slate Star Codex post. Out of this reading I would say that in the beginning the focus was on being right (or “Less Wrong”), on identifying and eliminating biases, and on understanding and accurately using probabilities (Bayesianism). But more recently the focus has shifted to being charitable to those you disagree with intellectually and attempting to understand them. This is the whole basis of the difference between what Galef calls the “scout mindset” and the “soldier mindset”—between mistake and conflict theory.

In other words the philosophy of rationality ends up being at least as much about being a good person as it does about how to be rational. But rather than taking my word for it let’s turn to the aforementioned review by Alexander:

I’m mentioning this story in particular because of how it straddles the border between “rationality training” and “being-a-good-person training”. It reminds me of C.S. Lewis…I think Julia thinks of rationality and goodness as two related skills: both involve using healthy long-term coping strategies instead of narcissistic short-term ones.

But all these skills about “what tests can you put your thoughts through to see things from the other person’s point of view?” or “how do you stay humble and open to correction?” are non-trivial parts of the decent-human-being package, and sometimes they carry over…

In one sense, this is good: buy one “rationality training”, and we’ll throw in a “personal growth” absolutely free! In another sense, it’s discouraging. Personal growth is known to be hard. If it’s a precondition to successful rationality training, sounds like rationality training will also be hard. 

Here Scout Mindset reaches an impasse. It’s trying to train you in rationality. But it acknowledges that this is closely allied with making you a good person. 

Here Alexander hits on the point I’ve brought up before. If the difficult part is making people good then perhaps we should just focus on that. And if that’s our focus, is there any reason to believe that rationality is better than traditional religion? 

I understand that religion does not unfailingly produce good people, but neither does rationality (A point Alexander makes at another point in his review.) Making people good is enormously difficult and even the best methods only shift things a little bit. We’re not interested in individual examples of improvement. As I mentioned before we’re looking for something that works with everyone. We’re looking for something that improves society in aggregate. And in this respect, while I think Scout Mindset is a great book with excellent advice, I’m not convinced that it would achieve better outcomes than the way we’ve been doing it for thousands of years. 

Perhaps it would help to present it in the form of a hypothetical situation: Imagine that you can add one book to the curriculum of all the schools in the nation. That you’re hoping to make the nation and maybe even the world a better place. Would you add Scout Mindset or the Bible (or maybe just the New Testament)? Particularly given the facts we’ve just discussed. 1) You want something that works with everyone. 2) Both books are trying to make people good by emphasizing kindness and charity. In this case would it not be better to go with what has worked for thousands of years, then re-inventing the wheel under the heading of “rationality”? 

Given the choice I would recommend that people read both the Bible and Scout Mindset. But as much as I enjoyed the latter I think if you were only going to read one I’d read the former.


Hero of Two Worlds: The Marquis de Lafayette in the Age of Revolution

by: Mike Duncan

512 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A biography of Lafayette, a French noble who fought in the American Revolution and then went on to be a major player in the French Revolution and the subsequent July Revolution of 1830.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who enjoys Duncan’s Revolutions podcast. Or who is interested in either Lafayette, or the connection between the American and French revolutions. 

General Thoughts

I quite enjoy the Revolutions podcast and I quite enjoyed this book. Lafayette was a central figure in French politics during its most tumultuous decades. Despite this the French apparently don’t have much interest in him. I was listening to Duncan being interviewed on another podcast. He mentioned that as soon as he told people who he was researching they would nod in understanding. “Of course,” they said, “because only Americans are interested in Lafayette.” Duncan speculated that this was because Lafayette was too much of a royalist to ever be embraced by the hard-core revolutionaries, and too much of a liberal to ever be embraced by the conservatives. This put him in a no man’s land where he wasn’t idolized by either side. But it also makes him something of his own man. And someone like that is always a joy to read about.

If I were going to point out anything specific about the book, it would probably be how much of a family man he was. When he was imprisoned in Austria (which probably saved him from the guillotine) his wife and two daughters, unwilling to be separated from him, traveled to Austria, and finding there was no other way to see him, joined him in prison and remained there for two years. It seems pretty clear that the harsh conditions his wife experienced while in prison contributed to her early death at the age of 48.

Can you imagine anything similar happening today?


This Is How You Lose the Time War

by: Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone

209 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Two people on opposite sides of a time war who begin sending letters to one another.

Who should read this book?

This novella won the Hugo and the Nebula and a few other awards besides. If you have four hours (the length of the audio book) and you want to read an award winning novella, here’s your chance.

General Thoughts

I expected to like this book more than I did. And I assume that many of the people reading this would enjoy the book, so I don’t necessarily want to do anything to close off the possibility of you doing just that, but this is a review so I have to say something. I guess I can do that in the form of a criticism sandwich:

The writing was gorgeous and to the extent that the book won awards I assume this was a large part of it.

At the bottom of that gorgeous writing most of the chapters were pretty repetitive. 1) Describe interesting location in the past or the future. 2) Describe elaborate way enemy operative hid letter. 3) Read contents of letter. 

All time travel stories have to have a twist at the end involving the manipulation of time. The twist at the end of this story was pretty good. Not fantastic, mind you, but interesting and enjoyable.


Slanted: How the News Media Taught Us to Love Censorship and Hate Journalism 

by: Sharyl Attkisson

320 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

An insider’s account of the liberal bias in the media, particularly as it is manifested against Trump.

Who should read this book?

Those who want a description of how the liberal media bias actually plays out in the decisions made in newsrooms of the major networks (CBS and CNN in particular).

General Thoughts

There are upsides and downsides to reading insider accounts. One of the upsides is you get to hear the stories first hand. Meaning that in the future you don’t have to argue about the media’s liberal slant based on vague inferences you picked up while watching or reading the news. You can point to actual accounts of news directors exercising ideological censorship over what stories get pursued. One of the downsides is that insiders generally have axes to grind, often with specific people, and it can be difficult to disentangle the biases of the person telling the story from the biases they’re describing. 

I’m not sure how well I have disentangled Attkisson’s biases from the stories she tells, but even if only half of them are true (and I suspect that they’re all mostly true) then the situation is pretty bad, and the neutrality of the press has been severely compromised. 

If we accept that this is the case then what should we do? Attkisson offers some recommendations for outlets and individuals who are still doing good journalism. Beyond that she offers the standard recommendation that there should be no censorship. That if we just allow all the information to circulate that the truth will rise to the top. I used to believe the same thing, these days I’m far less confident in that solution. 

By way of illustration, one of the biases which keeps coming up in the book is a bias in the level of evidence necessary to make a story newsworthy. Attkisson describes many cases where the slightest accusation of a Trump misdeed will make the front page, while much more credible evidence of misdeeds by Biden or Clinton will be judged as being not substantial enough to report on. Attkisson doesn’t want the Trump standard applied to Biden, she wants the Biden standard applied to Trump, but that’s the problem. Social media has allowed us to signal boost slight accusations against everyone. Often without any evidence at all. I think over time the truth might rise to the top, but by the time that happens the “top” has long ago been buried under multiple additional layers of B.S.


Plato: Complete Works 

by: Plato

1848 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The collected works of Plato (including stuff that may or may not be Plato) one of the greatest philosophers ever.

Who should read this book?

I don’t think anyone should read the entire book, certainly I didn’t (see below). But probably everyone should read at least some Plato.

General Thoughts

This is a continuation of my project to read the Great Books of the Western World. Which is a huge undertaking. I did not read every last page of the book. I solicited recommendations and trimmed it down to a little over half of the total content. One assumes you could trim it even further than that. 

As usual with the classics, it’s difficult to know what to say, since so much has been written about them already. But I do have a couple of observations:

First, The Republic. My sense is if you’ve read anything by Plato it’s probably this. Which is interesting because after a strong start where it resembles most of the other dialogues, it quickly descends into offering solutions and plans. As I pointed out in a previous post, for whatever reason you can take the wisest person you know, and the minute they start offering solutions they end up in crazytown. As an example of what I mean: In Book III there’s a whole discussion on what sort of things they’re going to allow children to read. And how they’re going to censor passages from Homer and get rid of tragedies. All of this will allow them to unfailingly raise courageous and noble children.

Now this isn’t the craziest solution he comes up with. (That probably belongs to something like having all wives in common so that no one would know who their father is.) But it is amazing how we’re still grappling with this issue thousands of years later. And despite all that time and effort we have neither managed to keep kids from getting ahold of material we deem unsuitable, nor managed to hit on exactly the right material to give them the education we want them to have.

Second, speaking of modern issues appearing in ancient texts. In reading Plato I was very much reminded of the modern rationality movement, and things like The Sequences (which I already mentioned in another review). There’s this sense in both of discovering a tool which, if used properly, will solve all of our problems. In Plato it’s the dialectic. For modern rationalists, it’s Bayesianism. And of course there are other historical examples which could be added. Now it’s certainly possible that modern rationalists will bring the world to heel with reason despite all the previous failures, but I don’t think that’s the way to bet.

Next I should be reading Aristotle, but in the course of reading The Landmark Thucydides, I discovered that the people who had done that had gone on to give the same treatment to Herodutus, so I think I’m going to go back and read that first.


Stillness Is the Key

by: Ryan Holiday

288 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Stillness: “To be steady while the world spins around you. To act without frenzy. To hear only what needs to be heard. To possess quietude—exterior and interior—on command.”

Who should read this book?

Those who have heard of Ryan Holiday and enjoyed his writing in the past. Or potentially anyone who’s feeling overwhelmed.

General Thoughts

This is a self-help book. But if you imagine that self-help books exist on a continuum between those that are almost textbooks, with exercises at the end of every chapter and those that are essentially history, containing lots of stories of people you should emulate. This is definitely all the way on the history end of things. 

I will say that stillness is definitely something I’ve been working on, and this book certainly helped. But it’s also difficult to summarize how it helped. As you may have gathered from the above it’s more meditative than practical—more right-brained than left. Perhaps, befitting its theme, it would be accurate to call it a quiet book.


The Sorrows of Young Werther

by: Goethe

121 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Werther, a man hopelessly in love with Charlotte, who is unfortunately engaged to someone else. Charlotte appears to reciprocate Werther’s feelings, but still ends up marrying the other man. Their chaste relationship continues in spite of her marriage, but eventually Werther can suffer it no longer and takes his own life. It may be the very first emo book.

Who should read this book?

Hard to say, on the one hand the book was immensely popular, and probably has some historical significance. On the other hand Goethe himself all but disowned it later in life. On the gripping hand it’s short…

General Thoughts

I think this book is most interesting for the story surrounding it rather than for the story it tells. To start with there is the aforementioned opinion of the author. This book catapulted him to fame when he was only 24, but as he grew older it turned into an embarrassing example of youthful excess. Then there were the fans of the book. Apparently it was so popular that people dressed up as Werther, and it even spawned associated merchandise, including a perfume. But what’s perhaps most interesting is that the book engendered some of the first known examples of copycat suicide. With people going beyond just dressing up as Werther all the way to dressing up as him and then killing themselves using the same pistols described in the book. 

I’m not sure if all of this strikes me as strangely modern or bizarrely foreign. Maybe a mix of both?


Now that we’re done with September and into October it appears that the weather has finally turned. Yesterday may have been the last day this year where the high was over 80. You would expect that as it gets colder that I would be inside more and thus read more, but as most of my “reading” is audiobooks which I listen to while I walk, cold weather may have the opposite effect. If you’d like to encourage me to power through the cold and “read” as much as always consider donating.


The 8 Books, 2 Graphic Novels, & 1 Podcast Series I Finished in August

If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post:

Or download the MP3


  1. This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race by: Nicole Perlroth 
  2. Everything is F*cked: A Book About Hope by: Mark Manson
  3. Never Split the Difference: Negotiating as if Your Life Depended on It by: Chris Voss
  4. Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore by: Michele Wucker
  5. Golden Son by: Pierce Brown
  6. Red Rising: Sons of Ares – Volume 1 and 2 (Graphic Novels) By: Pierce Brown
  7. The Bear by: Andrew Krivak
  8. The Phoenix Exultant by: John C. Wright
  9. A History of North American Green Politics: An Insider View by: Stuart Parker
  10. Rube Goldberg Machines: Essays in Mormon Theology by: Adam S. Miller

In August my youngest child left for college, and my oldest child started her graduate work. Next month another one of my children is getting married, though he’s been moved out for quite a while. Out of all of this only one child remains at home. He’s recently graduated from college with a computer science degree and is looking for his first job. Once he gets it, he too will move out. And, in what seems a very short space of time, my wife and I will be empty nesters. I’m not entirely sure I’m ready for it.

One of the first things we’re going to do is move out of the house while it undergoes a long overdue remodel. I’m expecting it to start sometime in October. I’m obviously nervous about an undertaking of this size. Remodeling isn’t a huge gamble, but it is a costly one. It’s also asymmetric, the upside is essentially capped while the downside has a very fat tail. So lots of changes, but hopefully none of them will impact the mediocre logorrhea you’ve come to expect from me.


I- Eschatological Reviews

This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race

by: Nicole Perlroth

528 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

The history, mechanics, and actors of a global and escalating cyberwar.

Who should read this book?

If you have enough worries about the future already I would avoid this book. If you’d like more or if you’re interested in cybersecurity this is the book for you.

General Thoughts

There are a lot of moving parts in this story, numerous actors, different incidents, and various technologies. One gets the sense that Perlroth is writing the history of something that hasn’t happened yet. Similar to someone writing the history of World War II at the end of August, 1939. Germany hasn’t invaded Poland, but they have annexed Austria, occupied the Sudetenland, and signed a nonaggression pact w/ Stalin (though no one knows that yet). Certain things are going to end up being very important and certain things are going to end up being entirely forgotten but none of that is clear yet.

Out of all the things Perlroth mentioned I’m going to make a few guesses as to which events and actors will end up actually being important when the war is finally over.

Stuxnet: This is the worm that was developed to take out Iranian centrifuges and slow down their uranium enrichment. It’s important for two reasons: It’s the first clear example of one nation attacking another using cyberweapons. Beyond that it undercut any moral high ground the US might have had. When the final history is written I think it will actually be less important than Perlroth claims, but it’s hard to imagine it not being included.

Heartbleed: This was a huge open source bug in the OpenSSL library that the NSA and others took advantage of for a long time. It illustrated that open source was not necessarily any more secure than the alternative (despite what some have claimed). Unsurprising given that the budget for the OpenSSL foundation was $2000/month. 

Ukraine: The Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine are a huge part of the story, big enough that I’ll cover it in the next section.

China: As is the case with so many things these days, China also conducts extensive cyberwarfare operations. And the story is similar to all the other China stories. China does something completely ridiculous, but in the end there’s too much money at stake so we overlook it. The key story from the book was Google, which exited China in 2010 after a gigantic hack, but then by 2018 they were working on getting back in. Currently the situation is complicated, but it’s obvious that Google is trying to get back into China’s good graces.

Of course I could be wrong as well about what will end up being important, but I don’t think I’m wrong about this being only the beginning.

Eschatological Implications

Historically wars have been the most common way that one sort of world changed into another sort of world, what we might consider eschatology lite. But it was only with the advent of nuclear weapons that people started to seriously consider the possibility that we could have wars which ended the world. With the book’s title Perlroth is making the claim that we should add cyberwar to that category. I don’t think she makes a convincing case that it should be added to the list with other x-risks, still she does make the case for significant worry. 

The book opens with the stories of Russia’s cyber attacks on Ukraine. The first, in 2015, took down their power grid, the second, in 2017, took down nearly every company in the country (though to the best of my knowledge the power stayed on this time). The second used the Petya malware, and apparently the Urkainians divide their lives into before Petya and and after Petya, in part because so much information was lost in the attack. From Pelroth’s description these attacks were obviously bad, but she claims that they could have been a lot worse. That this was just a test, not a real attempt to do as much damage as possible. That we should assume that if a big enough player, like Russia or China, really wanted to cause as much damage as possible, it would be far far worse. 

This example of Ukraine and the other discussions of cyberwarfare remind me of discussions about strategic bombing during the interwar period. World War I had given people a taste of what might be possible, and the advancement of technology only served to make those possibilities more terrifying—possibilities which would certainly play out in future wars.

These discussions were not universally bleak. Many thought it would lead to war more terrible than any which had come before, but some thought it would actually lead to fewer deaths because it would end wars so quickly. People would just give up once you had air superiority and could bomb them at will. In particular it was widely believed that aerial bombardment would cause uncontrollable panic among civilians. As you can see some people got it right and others didn’t. But amidst all the theorizing, one thing was definitely clear, industrial capacity would be a hugely important factor. You had to be able to build both the bombers and the bombs and the more you could build the better. 

We’re having the same discussions with respect to cyberwarfare. Some, like Perlroth, judging by the title of her book, think it has the potential to be apocalyptic, while others think that the danger is severe but manageable. (I assume Pinker is in this category, but this is another danger from progress/technology which doesn’t appear in Enlightenment Now.) I think I’m somewhere in the middle of those two positions. What I’m more interested in thinking about is which factors are going to end up ultimately determining success in cyberwarfare. If industrial capacity is what eventually allowed the US to win World War II, what factors will eventually allow which actors to achieve victory in a cyberwar?

From the book it’s clear that currently warfare revolves around highly talented individuals finding security holes in important software. From this you can imagine lots of ways this could go:

  • Is it a numbers game where the larger your country’s population the more talented individuals you possess and thus the more security holes your country has access to?
  • How does culture play into things? Are Chinese and Russian hackers more dedicated or less? If you’re a talented programmer in the US you’re working for six figures in silicon valley. If you’re a talented Russian hacker you’re building ransomware. The latter skill set would appear to be more useful if a cyberwar starts. 
  • Related, our government seems to suffer from more leaks than the Chinese and Russian governments. See for example Edward Snowden. Does our expectation of openness work against us?
  • China seems to have a pretty tight clamp on its software companies. For example it’s widely believed that they can have them include whatever backdoors and spyware they want. While we do see some cooperation between our government and our companies, it’s not nearly so extensive, and there’s been enormous pushback. Who has the advantage here? 
  • There’s a market for security holes and exploits. Given that you can buy your way into being competitive, but doing so is viewed as immoral, to whose benefit is that?

As I said, it’s impossible to predict which factors are going to be important and how things will play out in this arena, but reviewing the factors I just listed most of them seem to work to our disadvantage and to the advantage of our enemies. In particular this book has made me very worried about cyberterrorism. Thus far most terrorist organizations are fairly low tech, but that can’t last forever. In the old days it was assumed that the holy grail for a terrorist organization would be a nuke. With security vulnerabilities you have thousands of potential nukes wandering around. How long before a terrorist organization gets its hands on one? 

Consider, what would cause more chaos? A terrorist nuke in a major city (probably closer to Hiroshima than an ICBM) or 20% of the country being without power for a month because terrorists managed to blow out a couple of critical transformers? Okay, now which is easier to pull off? My hunch would be that the power disruption causes more chaos and is easier to pull off. And if the terrorists can’t quite pull that off, there are thousands of security holes out there—some more damaging, some less damaging—but all with the potential to cause a lot of chaos.


Everything is F*cked: A Book About Hope 

by: Mark Manson

288 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

I’m honestly not sure. It was kind of all over the place. I think it’s primary theme was an admonition to accept the world as it is, and that hope and the search for happiness is the opposite of that.

Who should read this book?

If you loved Manson’s other books, you will probably like this one, beyond that. I’m not sure I would recommend it. There are good parts, but nothing you couldn’t get from reading Ryan Holiday or some other stoic. 

General Thoughts

I’m not entirely clear on how this book came to my attention, but I had read Manson’s previous book, The Subtle Art of Not Giving A F*ck, and I enjoyed it, so that’s probably why I decided to read this book, plus it was short. The book is strange. It’s got a fair amount of philosophy in it, and most of that is pretty good. In fact Manson seemed to be making exactly the same connection I did between Nietzche and AI. It also had a lot of stories which I also enjoyed. The story of Antonio Damasio and “Elliot”, a man who couldn’t do anything because he felt no emotion is one I’ve heard, and even referenced on a couple of occasions, but Manson presents it with far more detail than any of the previous retellings I’ve encountered, so that was certainly useful. 

One thing I hadn’t encountered, at least that I can remember, was the blue-dot experiment. In this experiment researchers ask participants to decide if a dot is blue, and initially they show them a set of dots where half are blue and half are purple. Then they gradually reduce the number of blue dots until all they’re showing is purple. As it turns out the number of dots identified as blue remains fairly constant, even as the actual number of blue dots goes to zero. As the occurrence of blue dots decreased, their definition of blue expanded. Thus far it’s interesting, but not particularly earth-shattering, but then they did some follow-up experiments:

In one follow-up experiment, the researchers showed the participants 800 computer-generated faces that varied on a continuum of “threatening” to “nonthreatening.” When the number of malevolent mug shots the researchers showed the participants decreased after 200 trials, the participants started labeling nonthreatening portraits as threatening.

From this, people (including Manson) concluded that even if things are improving humans are wired such that they will always see a constant level of danger and disorder. That if we’re not feeling sufficiently threatened by external foes that we’ll make up the difference by perceived internal threats

The things I’ve just mentioned along with other human biases are what lead him to conclude that Everything is F*cked. It’s when he provides his solution, in a chapter titled “The Final Religion” that things get interesting.

Eschatological Implications

So what is the FINAL religion? In Nick Bostrom’s foundational work on AI Risk, Superintelligence he proposes something he calls “The principle of epistemic deference”:

A future superintelligence occupies an epistemically superior vantage point: its beliefs are (probably, on most topics) more likely than ours to be true. We should therefore defer to the superintelligence’s opinion whenever feasible. 

Manson takes this principle and turns it up to 11. I have never seen anyone lean into it as much as Manson does. He doesn’t suggest we defer to them “whenever feasible”. He suggests we worship them as gods:

AI will reach a point where its intelligence outstrips ours by so much that we will no longer comprehend what it’s doing. Cars will pick us up for reasons we don’t understand and take us to locations we didn’t know existed. We will unexpectedly receive medications for health issues we didn’t know we suffered from…

Then, we will end up right back where we began: worshipping impossible and unknowable forces that seeming control our fates, Just as primitive humans prayed to their gods for rain and flame—the same way they made sacrifices, offered gifts, devised rituals, and altered their behavior and appearance to curry favor with the naturalistic gods—so will we. But instead of the primitive gods, we will offer ourselves up to the AI gods.

We will develop superstitions about the algorithms. If you wear this, the algorithms will favor you. If you wake at a certain hour and say the right thing and show up at the right place, the machines will bless you with great fortune. If you are honest and you don’t hurt others and you take care of yourself and your family, the AI gods will protect you. 

[A]llow me to say that I, for one, welcome our AI overlords.

Needless to say there is a lot wrong with this. First it completely ignores the AI alignment problem. Do we care what location we’re taken to by the car that “pick[s] us up for reasons we don’t understand”? What if it’s an assisted suicide facility because the AI has decided we’re old, sad and lonely and all of those conditions are only going to get worse? What if it’s a eugenics facility? And these are the very mildest examples.

All of the foregoing might be forgivable if this conclusion was supported by a foundation built over the course of the previous 200 pages, or if it was foreshadowed at all. But instead it seems to come out of left field. A strange eschatology emerging, unheralded from a rambling mix of self-help, neuroscience, and Nietzsche. 


II- Capsule Reviews

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating as if Your Life Depended on It 

by: Chris Voss

288 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A method of negotiation which involves open ended questions designed to get the other side to solve your problems for you.

Who should read this book?

Someone, I forget who, pointed out that you’re never making more money, or losing more money in a given period of time than when you’re negotiating. If this book can improve your negotiating power by 1%, say by netting you $101k vs. $100K and you do this sort of negotiation a lot, then it’s value should be obvious.

General Thoughts

One would think based on what I just wrote that I have read every book on negotiation I can get my hands on. This is not the case, I mostly only read ones that have been recommended to me, and out of those I think this one, Influence by Robert Cialdini and Secrets of Power Negotiating by Roger Dawson have been the best. If you’re trying to decide between them it might be useful to point out that Influence has 365 ratings on Amazon with an average of 4.7 stars. Power Negotiating has 428 ratings also with a 4.7 average. Don’t Split the Difference on the other hand has 20,000 ratings with an average of 4.8. I’m not sure if these numbers should reflect on the author’s negotiating prowess or not. 

Beyond that, as I’ve already said, I believe this is a useful book. Voss has lots of great stories from his time as the FBI’s chief international hostage negotiator. And lots of good advice beyond that. With that in mind, my sense of things is that these sorts of books are best read right before a big negotiation. They’re useful in general, but they kind of recommend a different mindset, one you’re unlikely to practice enough (unless you’re in a position like Voss’s) to be able to recall at will. 

So if you’ve got a big negotiation coming up, I would definitely recommend this book, and probably the other two as well.


Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore

by: Michele Wucker

284 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Catastrophes which have been predicted but not prepared against.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who’s interested in risk management, though, if you haven’t read The Black Swan you should read that first.

General Thoughts

In 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused the levees to fail in New Orleans. The resulting flood killed approximately 1500 people and inflicted $70 billion dollars in damages. This was a catastrophe, but it wasn’t a black swan, the potential for catastrophe had been foreseen well in advance of Katrina, and yet the necessary preventative steps were not taken.

Shortly after reading this book Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana and New Orleans, and while the levees fortunately held this time, the 911 system once again collapsed. Despite the 16 years that had elapsed since Katrina, New Orleans was only now putting in a new system and it wasn’t ready, and the old system collapsed in the same way it had the last time around.

All of the foregoing are examples of Grey Rhinos. Disasters which can be foreseen, even if the actual timing can’t be pin-pointed. Wucker uses the analogy of someone out on safari who wants a picture of a rhino. In their quest they get too close, ignoring all the rules given by their guide, and as a result they spook the rhino and next thing they know it’s charging in their direction, whereupon they freeze. Everything about the “grey rhino” crisis is predictable and obvious, but because people are more focused on short term incentives they ignore the giant, and possibly fatal risk, which is now barreling down on them. 

Grey rhinos are obviously more common than black swans, and far easier to see, but as Wucker points out this doesn’t mean we’re great at dealing with them. If this book can help even a little bit it’s utility will be unquestionable. Despite that potential, reading the book was depressing rather than hopeful as it goes through example after example of people who got too close to the rhino, found themselves facing down possible catastrophe, freezing up and getting trampled. And yes, Wucker does provide plenty of advice for avoiding that fate, but people have been giving such advice for thousands of years and it hasn’t seemed to make much of an impact, it’s hard to imagine that this book is going to finally be the one that takes. 


Golden Son

by: Pierce Brown

464 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is book two of the Red Rising Trilogy. The continued saga of Darrow, a low caste Red who becomes a Gold and must navigate the various treacheries and machinations of their society while attempting to bring the whole thing crashing down. 

Who should read this book?

Every series has its peak, if you’re lucky it comes at the end, but that’s actually fairly rare. I think this series peaks in book one. Book two is still enjoyable, but if you didn’t love book one this book isn’t going to improve things for you.

General Thoughts

I’ve decided this series is a combination of Dune, Game of Thrones and the Hunger Games. This is not necessarily a good thing. In particular it out paces all of them in the amount of deaths and duplicitous double dealing. (Yes, it even out paces Game of Thrones.) At a certain point I started to find this tiresome. My plan is still to read the third book, but I’m worried. The friend who recommended them said that each book is worse than the one before. Of course he told me this after I finished book two…


Red Rising: Sons of Ares – Volume 1 and 2 (Graphic Novels)

by: Pierce Brown

152 Pages and 132 pages respectively

Briefly, what was this series about?

This is a prequel to the main trilogy, in graphic novel form. 

Who should read it?

First off you shouldn’t read this series before you read book two of the actual trilogy because it contains major spoilers. Second, unless you’re a Red Rising completist you probably shouldn’t read it at all.

General Thoughts

The back story provided by these graphic novels is somewhat interesting, though it doesn’t break any new ground. Also it’s incoherent in places, and I didn’t really like the art, which was kind of the whole reason I decided to check them out. (In this case, literally, I checked them out from the library.)


The Bear

by: Andrew Krivak

224 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A man and his daughter making their living in the wilderness long after the rest of humanity has disappeared.

Who should read this book?

This is another instance where I think viewing something as a long podcast is very clarifying. The audio book is four hours, so if a great four hour podcast episode sounds appealing then this should as well.

General Thoughts

If you were to view this as a happy version of Cormac McCarthy’s The Road you wouldn’t be far off. It also has hints of Jack London’s Call of the Wild. Finally it reminds me of some of the Native American mythology I’ve read over the years. Krivak does a great job of combining all of these elements together into something great. I thoroughly enjoyed everything about the book: the setting, the plot, the characters and the writing. It was great.


The Phoenix Exultant 

by: John C. Wright

304 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A story set in the far future, full of AI’s and humans in every variety you can imagine (from base neuroforms, to warlocks, composites and invariants). A story about one man’s quest to explore beyond the solar system and the forces trying to stop him.

Who should read this book?

This is also the second book in a series. It was also not as good as the first, but I enjoyed it quite a bit. I expect this series might peak at the end, and thus if you’ve read the first one, read this one too.

General Thoughts

As I mentioned in my review of book one Wright is great at creating an interesting setting. That mostly continues to be the case, though this book takes place at a smaller scale than the last one, which is somewhat to its detriment. Also one thing I didn’t mention is that Wright himself is a conservative catholic. It’s extraordinarily difficult to craft a book with an underlying ideology that doesn’t appear heavy handed, but I think Wright pulls it off. As you might imagine this gives the book a bit of an old school science fiction feel which I also enjoyed. 


A History of North American Green Politics: An Insider View (Podcast Series)

by: Stuart Parker

15 hours

Briefly, what is this podcast about?

The history of North America environmentalism and the creation of the Green Party, which have not always been as closely aligned as you might think. 

Who should listen to it?

From the outside looking in I always assumed that the environmental movement was well organized and monolithic. Parker shows that it was anything but. If you’re interested in a detailed story about how the narcissism of small differences plays out in politics, this is the series for you.

General Thoughts

Parker has been heavily involved in politics and environmentalism essentially his entire adult life. He was leader of the British Columbia Greens from the age of 21 to 28. So this really is an insider view of things. Parker is also a gifted academic and lecturer with a deep and eclectic knowledge of the history of environmentalism, the relationship between various factions (farm workers, rich elites, native americans, etc.) and how it all came to be manifested or ignored in the form of the Green Party. 

As the series progresses it comes to events where Parker really was an insider. He is able to give more of a first hand account of how things played out and we get to really see how the sausage was made. Which is fascinating and frustrating in equal measure, and I don’t even have a dog in the fight. I really enjoyed the series, much more than I expected.


III- Religious Reviews

Rube Goldberg Machines: Essays in Mormon Theology

by: Adam S. Miller

132 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A collection of essays with a particular focus on what Mormonism has to say about grace and the atonement.

Who should read this book?

If you only dabble in Mormon theology, then there are easier books to read, but if you’re serious about the subject the essays in this book are deep and thought-provoking.

General Thoughts

I found Miller’s writing to be somewhat opaque, in my opinion more opaque than was actually necessary. Miller has some brilliant insights, but at times I felt like I was having to work too hard for them. My favorite essay from the book was “Notes on Life, Grace and Atonement.” Grace is going through something of revival in current Mormon dialogue and Miller’s contribution is fascinating, and almost Buddhist in nature:

With respect to grace, the legitimacy of my preferences for pleasant or productive things is a secondary issue at best. Grace is not concerned with preferences, legitimate or not. Grace, in its prodigality, is relentlessly and single-mindedly concerned with just one thing: the givenness of whatever is given, regardless of how such things may or may not comport with my preferences.

This definition of grace is all part of what he calls a non-sequential theology. We are not interested in cause and effect. We shouldn’t be focused on doing this in order for this to happen, but rather we should be focused on the totality of our lives at any given moment. I am certain I am not doing it justice, but perhaps I’m giving you enough of an idea to determine whether or not the book would appeal to you. And isn’t that the whole point of a review?


September looks to be the month when I finally finish reading Plato. So you’ve got more dilettantish commentary on ancient classics to look forward to. If that’s precisely what’s been missing from your life all this time, consider donating. If, inexplicably, you’ve already got enough of that sort of commentary, consider donating to support all the non-classical dilettantish commentary I do.


The 10 Books I Finished in July

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  1. Count Down: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race by: Shanna H. Swan
  2. End of Everything: (Astrophysically Speaking) by: Katie Mack
  3. Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America by: Charles Murray
  4. Winning: The Unforgiving Race to Greatness by: Tim Grover
  5. Streaking: The Simple Practice of Conscious, Consistent Actions That Create Life-Changing Results by: Jeffrey J. Downs and Jami L. Downs
  6. Red Rising by: Pierce Brown
  7. Coming Back Alive: The True Story of the Most Harrowing Search and Rescue Mission Ever Attempted on Alaska’s High Seas by: Spike Walker
  8. Freedom by: Sebastian Junger
  9. Faust by: Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
  10. Open and Relational Theology: An Introduction to Life-Changing Ideas by: Thomas Jay Oord

I’m back. Hopefully my absence was not too distressing… 

The older I get the more I hate the heat, and as July is the hottest month of the year, lately I’ve been trying to get out of Utah, or at least up into the mountains. This July I went to the Open and Relational Theology Conference which was at a ski resort near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Shortly after getting back from that I took a trip with my wife to a condo in the mountains. Both trips were nice, and I will talk more about the theology conference when I get to the associated review.

These two trips meant that I didn’t get as much done as I had hoped but I did quite a bit done with the time freed up by not writing two essays last month. I’m hoping some of my efforts will bear fruit, but only time will tell. As you can tell whatever else I may have been doing in July I did get quite a bit of reading done, so I’m going to try to keep things tight. Thus, without further ado:


I- Eschatological Reviews

Count Down: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race

by: Shanna H. Swan

292 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

That modern world is suffering from a severe chemically induced fertility crisis.

Who should read this book?

If news about decreased sperm counts fills you with curiosity or dread, this is the book for you. 

General Thoughts

Growing up my experience was that kids were everywhere and they arrived fairly effortlessly. I’m the oldest of seven kids. In the house across the street was another family with seven kids and one of my best friends had 11 brothers and sisters. Now admittedly Mormons have always been at the higher end of the total fertility rate (TFR) curve, but the larger point I’m trying to get at is that when I was a child I saw no evidence of any fertility problems. 

These days it seems like we’re in exactly the opposite situation. It feels harder to come up with couples who don’t have any fertility problems than those which do. If I’m trying to be objective I don’t think this is literally the case, nor do I put much stock in my childhood impressions, but I know an awful lot of couples who are having a devil of a time conceiving. 

I hadn’t really given that much thought to this dichotomy until I started reading this book. Certainly I had heard that male sperm counts had been falling, but even with my focus on technologically induced crises, it only dimly registered. If someone had asked me for my opinion on the subject before reading this book, I probably would have said that the science on the phenomenon was still unclear. I would have been wrong.

Perhaps this subject was just a blind spot for me and everyone else knew it was a crisis, but my sense is that we’ve spent so much time focusing on why people might have fewer children, that the crisis of being unable to have kids has slipped under the radar. But make no mistake, it is a crisis. Here are just a handful of the statistics Swan provides in the book:

  • Miscarriages are increasing by 1% per year
  • Between 1973 and 2011 sperm concentration dropped 52% in western countries. This study involved 42,935 men.
  • The average twenty something woman is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35. 
  • In China eligible sperm donors dropped from 56 percent to 18 percent. (So it’s not just the west.)
  • Standards for infertility have been lowered. In the 40s it was 60 million sperm/mL, now the standard is 15.
  • 26% of men who present with some degree of erectile dysfunction are under 40.
  • Impaired Fecundity is actually worse among young women, relatively speaking. There was a 42% increase in impairment among women aged 14-24. While there was only a 6% increase in impairment among women aged 35-44.

About half the book is composed of statistics and a general overview of chemically induced infertility and about half is advice for what individuals can do to increase their personal fertility. I find the advice for individuals less interesting, but I was curious how efficacious it was. Swan gave lots of pointers but not much guidance on how much impact each, or even all of these changes would make. For example, with age having such an effect, which cohort has greater fertility: 20 year olds who follow none of Swan’s advice or 35 year olds who follow all of it? I suspect the former. If that’s the case, which is easier? Convincing people to have children earlier or completely eliminating harmful chemicals from every corner of the environment, and from everyone’s bodies? 

We might hope that there’s some simple fix, that perhaps we can fight chemicals with chemicals. That if these chemicals mess with fertility, perhaps by throwing off the proper function of estrogen or testosterone we can just add more. Unfortunately the body is more complicated that, as one example, testosterone replacement therapy causes 90% of men to drop to a sperm count of zero!

Eschatological Implications

Shortly after finishing Count Down I came across another piece claiming that chemicals were also causing the obesity epidemic. So I intend to do a separate post looking at both claims, and the ways in which they interact. Instead I’m going to use this space to have a higher level discussion.

There are many people who wish to claim that everything is going great, and that the future is going to be awesome. In order to do this they have to explain how the dangers people currently fixate on are overblown or soluble. I am most familiar with Steven Pinker’s Enlightenment Now, and while he talked directly about climate change and AI risk, as well speaking about pollution generally, he did not cover chemically induced infertility. This was not a danger that was on his radar, not a problem of modernity he considered.

As I said I am not familiar with every work in this genre, and perhaps some of them have a compelling answer for why this potential catastrophe should not trouble us, but Pinker entirely ignores it. In drawing attention to this, my point is not that it’s unanswerable, my point is that it illustrates just how many potential technological catastrophes there are. 

It’s not as if this problem is difficult to foresee or get a handle on. It’s easy to measure, it’s central to human flourishing, and the evidence has been available for decades. It didn’t make my list, or Pinker’s list, or really any list because there are just so many things for us to worry about. (Pinker also completely missed the corrosive effects of social media, because his book was written in 2018 rather than 2020.) There are just so many things that can go wrong. So many unintended consequences to our large-scale tampering. If we can’t even adequately deal with problems which should be obvious, how are we going to deal with the subtle problems, the ones that sneak up on us?


End of Everything: (Astrophysically Speaking) 

by: Katie Mack

240 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

An exploration of theories on how the universe will end.

Who should read this book?

People who like astrophysics, or thinking in time horizons of trillions of years.

General Thoughts

I remember reading Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time back in the day. This book has a similar feel, though it was more irreverent and humorous than Hawking’s. (Though, to be clear, Hawking could be quite funny.) Labelling this book “A Brief History of the End of Time” would not have been misleading.

In the book Mack covers six possibilities for the end of everything: Heat Death, Big Crunch, Big Rip, Vacuum Decay or Bouncing Branes. Two of these explanations (crunch and bounce) posit a universe that cycles with the death of one universe leading to the birth of the next. The rest of the explanations posit a universe that dead ends. Cycles have always made more sense to me, otherwise you need a whole separate endeavor for explaining how universes begin. That said, dead end explanations currently seem to be favored by astrophysicists. And if that’s the way the data points, that’s the way it points. But my bet is on cycles, or some other stable state (And my personal bet is that God will reveal this to me in the hereafter. Should we run into each other in the next life I want you to remember this prediction and give me credit accordingly.)

Eschatological Implications

This book is primarily about eschatology, so obviously I had to include it in this section. Though it is an eschatology much different than what I normally write about, and much different than what most people care about. Mack largely writes about things that will happen long after we are gone, and by long I mean, for example, 10^1000 years from now. And while it’s good that some people are thinking about it, I will still contend that my eschatological focus is more useful than Mack’s. 

This is not to say the book wasn’t useful or interesting. It was fascinating. I particularly liked the Vacuum Decay possibility. This holds that the Higgs Field/Potential is at a local minimum, but not a global minimum. Some incredibly energetic event could locally knock it out of its current minimum and into the global minimum, when that happened the nearby space would follow suit and a bubble of this new universe would expand out at the speed of light. Since it’s expanding as fast as information can travel we wouldn’t know about it until it hit us. One day everything’s fine and the next day the universe is unrecognizable. If you’ve ever read Cat’s Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut this is similar to what happens with ice-9.

Finally, this book was also a great reminder about how little we know about things. Mack points out that of the four things that determine how the universe behaves—matter, dark matter, dark energy, and time—we really only understand matter and it’s the smallest contributor to that behavior.


II- Capsule Reviews

Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America

by: Charles Murray

168 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The two truths that there are racial differences in cognitive ability and criminality. 

Who should read this book?

Possibly no one. I think Murray’s arguments are important, but the issue is so polarized that there is no one left who does not already have a position which is unalterable.

General Thoughts

Murray is best known as the co-author, along with Richard Herrnstein, of The Bell Curve which makes the case that intelligence is important and partially heritable. As a result of this heritability they go on to say that intelligence has different means and distributions among the various racial groups. In this book Murray again makes the case for racial differences in cognitive ability, and to that he adds data making the case for racial differences in criminality. He doesn’t speculate on a root cause for these differences, but he does assert that they will be with us “indefinitely”. And indeed, according to his data the difference was shrinking until the late 80’s, but since then it’s been remarkably stable. 

As you might imagine we’re already in dangerous territory. The Bell Curve is still taboo, and Murray, despite being unfailingly civil, is also basically taboo. And while Murray avoids mentioning genetic racial differences in this book, it’s impossible for the mind not to go there, so perhaps you want me to offer some opinion.

This reminds me of an episode of Seinfeld where Jerry gets a couple of women to agree to a ménage à trois, but in the end decides that he can’t go through with it because he’s not an orgy guy. If he were going to do that he would have to get new clothes, new decor, new friends—he’d have to grow a mustache. Which is to say diving into racial differences in IQ is a whole lifestyle, really on both sides of the argument. And I’m not going to do it. 

However I will say this, and I’ll probably end up regretting it. In the rationalist community, which I am adjacent to in a very vague sense, these sorts of ideas are generally viewed as having some truth to them. And I don’t think it’s because rationalists are just unforgivably hateful and racist, I think it’s because that’s what the data seems to say. If you’re interested in a brief overview of that data you could do worse than read Murray’s book.


Winning: The Unforgiving Race to Greatness 

by: Tim Grover

240 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

How the true pursuit of winning requires an absolute single-minded devotion.

Who should read this book?

If you want to be inspired to try harder and to be tougher this is your book.

General Thoughts

Grover trained Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant (among others) two of the most relentless competitors who have ever walked the Earth. This is a book about how if you really want to win, there is no work/life balance, there is no pausing to rest. That all the cliches we tell ourselves are wrong. Showing up is NOT half the battle. Winning is selfish, there is an “I” in team. And you don’t need to make time for yourself or others. The only thing you should be making time for are things that take you closer to victory.

I found this book a useful wake-up call, and something of a corrective to so much of the current self-help landscape. I think I had mostly slid into a certain routine which was more focused on the perfecting of the routine than getting to a certain outcome. If it never gets me the outcome I want, what use was the routine? 

However, while I think the world in general needs more focus on “Winning!” and less focus on small incremental improvements. I would argue that the absolute fixation Grover advocates for is dangerous. I do think balance is important, but more than that I’m worried that Grover doesn’t draw any lines. As an example consider Lance Armstrong. Grover didn’t coach Armstrong, but Armstrong is another example of a relentless competitor, so relentless that he didn’t give a second thought to doping (i.e. performance enhancing drugs). Grover doesn’t ever mention doping but the impression one gets is that he would be in favor of it. Particularly given that all of Armstrong’s competitors were doping. How else would Armstrong win if he didn’t do the same?

If Grover is against doping, this book gives no hint of it, and nothing in the book could be used to derive that conclusion. But of course the real question is: did Jordan or Bryant ever use performance enhancing drugs while Grover was training them?


Streaking: The Simple Practice of Conscious, Consistent Actions That Create Life-Changing Results

by: Jeffrey J. Downs and Jami L. Downs

208 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Creating “streaks”, i.e. doing an activity every day in an uninterrupted fashion as a way of self improvement.

Who should read this book?

If the previous book didn’t appeal to you, maybe this one will. This is self-improvement at its easiest and most basic.

General Thoughts

This book is basically the inverse of the previous book. Rather than looking at improvement or winning as a total endeavor, this book puts forth the smallest and easiest possible methodology for improvement. The “streaks” methodology involves picking some activity that would be a part of your ideal life, and then making sure that you do that activity every day, keeping track of your “streak” of days. This activity should not be big, in fact they recommend the criteria of “laughably easy” when deciding what the activity should be. They also don’t recommend starting several streaks all at once, but rather suggest that you should go 100 days with your first streak before adding another one.

As you can see this is basically the opposite of what Grover is recommending, and I think both points of view are valuable, but my guess is that Downs’ recommendation will be more useful for more people. Still, you should never forget the need to actually win on occasion.


Red Rising 

by: Pierce Brown

382 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is the first book of a dystopian science fiction series set ~700 years in the future where humanity has been divided into colors, each color has a specific role. Golds are on top and Reds are on the bottom.

Who should read this book?

If you’re looking for a good sci fi series, I’ve heard good things about this one, and the first book was very enjoyable.

General Thoughts

There are lots of elements that go into a good science fiction book. Plot, characters, setting, world building, etc. Pierce is pretty strong with nearly all of them. In part this is because he uses the increasingly common technique, one which I’ve kind of decided is cheating, of setting his book in a school. It’s a very strange school, and I’m not sure it makes a lot of sense, but it is a school, and with that setting comes all sorts of things you don’t have to worry about. You only have to deal with basically one location. The plot is naturally driven by the pedagogy of the school. And, If you only focus on a few characters that feels entirely natural. 

However, as I said, I’m not sure it makes sense. *Incredibly mild spoiler* The school is composed entirely of Golds, the very highest caste, and they die like flies. Which is a world very different from ours, and I don’t know that his world-building is deep enough to make it believable. It’s interesting, but it doesn’t entirely cohere. But as criticism goes, that’s a pretty mild one. It’d be pretty hard to find a book that doesn’t have some flaw at least as egregious. 

As I write this I’m a third of the way done with the second book, and it occurs to me that the part Red Rising does poorly is what Dune does so masterfully. And there are definitely echos of Dune in the book, but that’s a very hard act to follow.

In the final analysis, Red Rising is not a classic, but it’s still quite good.


Coming Back Alive: The True Story of the Most Harrowing Search and Rescue Mission Ever Attempted on Alaska’s High Seas 

by: Spike Walker

288 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Amazing Coast Guard rescues off the coast of Alaska.

Who should read this book?

People who appreciate shows like “Deadliest Catch” or general stories of man against nature.

General Thoughts

I’ve read a lot of these stories and this collection is as good as any of them, in particular the story of the most prominent rescue has a horrible twist that makes it all the more dramatic. 


Freedom

by: Sebastian Junger

160 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A meditative book that’s half autobiographical narrative of a walking trip Junger took and half narrative of the way freedom was understood during the early history of the country. 

Who should read this book?

People who enjoy long, discursive podcasts, or Junger’s other stuff.

General Thoughts

Freedom was not as good as Tribe (few books are), though it is probably more personal. After getting divorced Junger decided to start walking the rails with three companions. Walking the rails is illegal, and as such it provides the setting for numerous anecdotes on freedom. About half the anecdotes come from his trip and about half the anecdotes are historical.

I listened to the audiobook, which is only three hours long, and I think if you approach the book as just a long episode of a good podcast it’s amazing.


Faust 

by: Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

158 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The original Faustian bargain.

Who should read this book?

It’s a classic and it’s short, so maybe everyone?

General Thoughts

Sometimes when you read an acknowledged classic you immediately recognize why it’s a classic, sometimes you kind of have to take it on faith. Faust is split into two parts and I think the first part fell into the “immediate recognition” bucket, while the second part was in the “take it on faith” bucket.

Though Faust isn’t just an acknowledged classic, it’s frequently named as the greatest work of German literature, which would appear to be a level beyond that. I definitely didn’t get that sense, even out of Part 1, but perhaps I should try reading it in the original German. I mostly know Dutch and it feels like with a moderate amount of effort I could pick up German literacy. Though it kind of feels like I’m at a point in my life when I should be cutting back on things rather than being ambitious. 

As a final note I should mention that in the past I have found full cast audiobooks to be less enjoyable than those with a single great narrator. I listened to a full cast version of this book and it was quite good. So perhaps I just had a few bad experiences. I’ll keep you posted.


III- Religious Reviews

Open and Relational Theology: An Introduction to Life-Changing Ideas

by: Thomas Jay Oord

192 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A new take on how God operates, very different from traditional religious ideas.

Who should read this book?

If you like plumbing the depths of theology, but find some of it far too dry, this is the book for you.

General Thoughts

As I mentioned I went to a conference on open and relational theology (ORT) last month, but this was not because I subscribe to it. My biggest reason was that I was acquainted with Oord, who organized the conference. Also, it didn’t appear any more expensive than taking a vacation of similar duration, so I thought I could kill two birds with one stone. 

ORT does have a lot of overlap with LDS theology, in particular they’re very big on the idea of free will and agency. Something that’s also pretty foundational for Mormons. ORT uses it to answer the questions of evil and suffering.  Basically God can’t do anything which interferes with our free will. More broadly, God has only a limited ability to interfere with anything.

As I said this is not my theology and so I don’t want to get too deep into things lest I misrepresent it, but one of the interesting outgrowths of this focus on free will is that God can’t know the future. If he knows with absolute certainty what’s going to happen then we don’t really have free will. This is the “open” part of ORT, it describes the idea that the future is open, that both we and God move through time in the same way at the same rate. So God doesn’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow anymore than we do. (One assumes his predictions are better, but they are still just predictions, there is no certainty.)

As a result of this God experiences things, again much the same way we do, and he experiences our actions while we experience his. This is the “relational” part. God is not a fixed unmovable being unchanging through all the eternities, in ORT God develops in harmony with the rest of creation. His essence is unchanging, but what he has experienced is constantly being added to.

It’s a very interesting idea, and I met a lot of very cool people. As a theology I think it’s something of a statement on the ongoing developments in Christianity and religion, but I’m still not 100% sure what that statement is.

Winning for me is getting people to pay me to write. I have an ongoing “streak” where I ask for money at the end of every post. But perhaps I’ve been looking at it all wrong, and if I really want to “Win!” I need to pass the bank teller a note demanding all the money. Wouldn’t that count as getting paid for my writing? And the rate per word would be huge! Perhaps that should be my plan B. If you want to help me with plan A, consider donating.


The 8 Books I Finished in June

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  1. Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters by: Steven E. Koonin
  2. Theory and Reality: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science by: Peter Godfrey-Smith
  3. The Start 1904-30 by: William L. Shirer
  4. The Storm on Our Shores: One Island, Two Soldiers, and the Forgotten Battle of World War II by: Obmascik, Mark
  5. Catherine the Great: Portrait of a Woman by: Robert K. Massie
  6. Tiamat’s Wrath by: James S. A. Corey
  7. What I Saw in America by: G. K. Chesterton
  8. Job: A New Translation by: Edward L. Greenstein

It was a little over five years ago that I started this blog. In that time I have written 240 posts, or an average of four a month, which is less than I hoped to write but still pretty impressive. Enough so that I feel like I’ve earned a break, as such other than this entry, and the end of the month newsletter, I’m not planning on posting anything else, though I have a vague idea about updating some of my past posts, so there’s some chance I’ll do that. This is not primarily about taking a vacation, it’s primarily about carving out time to get some momentum on the book I’ve been working on, which I still hope to have out this year. And which has been stalled at 30% for a while. 

Beyond that there’s not much to report, except that June has been super hot, which I hate, but I’ll talk more about that in my first review:


I- Eschatological Reviews

Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters

By: Steven E. Koonin

240 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

The way in which the media and climate activists distort the facts and science of climate change.

Who should read this book?

If you’re really interested in steelmanning the case for not being alarmed about the climate, this is the book for you.

General Thoughts

As I just mentioned, June here in Utah has been hot. On June 15th, Salt Lake City hit 107, which tied the record for the hottest temperature ever recorded here. (In the time since I first wrote that Portland hit 115). This is bad enough, but the fact that it happened in June is even worse. July is generally hotter than June, so worse may be yet to come. 

When things like this happen it’s easy to take it as proof that the globe is warming, that record breaking heat is more common, and that super hot days are the new normal. Not so fast, says Koonin. He claims, regardless of how it appears, that we haven’t had more record breaking heat, that the increase in average temperature hasn’t come because it’s getting hotter, it’s come because it no longer gets quite so cold. That the daily low temperatures are not quite so low anymore, but that the daily highs are unchanged. In making this claim he walks you through all the data, almost all of it taken from the official IPCC reports.

Note: The last paragraph was written before Lytton, Canada beat the previous Canadian high temperature record by a full 8 degrees, and then, subsequently burned to the ground. I understand this is just one data point, but viscerally it’s pretty compelling. 

It’s hard to not come across as strident when you’re talking about global warming, if for no other reason than that there’s just so much background contention. Koonin is no exception to this stridency, but insofar as he has an axe to grind it doesn’t appear to have anything to do with politics. It seems to be the exact opposite. What sets him off is when people twist science for political ends. Koonin appears to have a mania for accuracy, for pointing out where things are uncertain. And when it comes to something as complicated as the climate and you’re trying to make predictions about exactly where it’s going to be in 100 years, you’ve got nothing but uncertainty.

You may find it hard to believe that he doesn’t have a partisan axe to grind, but that’s part of what drew me to the book. Koonin was 2nd Undersecretary for Science under Obama. He was also Provost of Caltech. These two together should be enough to convince you that he’s not some unhinged climate change denier, that he may in fact be exactly what he says he is, someone who’s just interested in making sure that the facts are reported objectively. In service of this goal, as I mentioned above, most of his contentions are based on data from the IPCC reports, or from studies by scientists who are part of the IPCC. And the book is full of examples of some media outlet or politician saying something, for example, hurricanes are getting worse, and Koonin showing that this claim is not supported by any of the official reports, nor by the data.

He’s got many suggestions for how to deal with this problem. The one that I found most interesting was the idea of treating climate change science like a war game. In war games you have a blue team and a red team. The blue team represents the friendlies, so if the US Army is conducting a war game the blue team represents the US. One portion of the army is assigned to the blue team, while another portion gets assigned to be the red team. They play the opponents and they’re trying to poke holes in the plan, to show where things have been missed, and where it might be vulnerable. Koonin suggests that we need a red team for climate change science. A group specifically tasked with showing where the science is weak or where the data is unclear. 

It’s an interesting idea, and insofar as Koonin is acting as a one man red team he does poke many holes in things. As one example, it turns out that our computer models are actually getting less accurate. This in spite of greater computing power and all of the insights into modeling we’ve presumably accumulated. Or at least Koonin claims models are getting less accurate… And that’s the problem. I have to mostly take his word for it. Yes, he gives citations and yes, I could look those up, but that’s a rabbit hole of essentially infinite depth.

I will point out that Tyler Cowen took particular issue with Koonin’s claim that “The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.” Saying:

That is presented as a big deal, and yes it would be.  But “minimal”?  The economist wishes to ask “how much.”  The more concrete discussion comes on pp.178-179, which looks at twenty studies (all or most of them bad), and reports they estimate that by 2100 global gdp is three percent less due to climate change, or perhaps the damages are smaller yet.  Those estimates are then graphed, and there is a bit of numerical analysis of what that means for growth rates working backwards.  There is not much more than that on the question, and no attempt to provide an independent estimate of the economic costs of global warming, or to tell us which might be the best study or what it might be missing.  Koonin seems more interested in discrediting the hypocritical or innumerate climate change researchers than finding out the best answer to the question of cost.

So, if I’m not going to spend my time going down the rabbit hole of verifying Koonin’s sources, what am I going to spend my time on? How about…

Eschatological Implications

Global warming is primarily viewed through an eschatological lens. Is it an existential crisis? Will it lead to vast upheaval? Does it represent the end of the modern world as we inevitably harvest the bitter fruits of progress?

Determining the answer to these questions is obviously of critical importance. Certainly when I talk to people, particularly of a more liberal bent, they answer all of these in the affirmative, and while the data I found on this subject is all over the place, anecdotally my impression is that global warming has become the default doomsday scenario, supplanting nuclear war—particularly among people of a certain age and ideology. So what sort of contribution does the book make to answering our questions?

First let’s start with a couple of things he doesn’t cover that I think he should have:

Climate refugees: When I talk to someone who’s actually informed about the issues the thing they’re the most worried about is not rising sea levels, it’s refugees fleeing areas that are no longer habitable because of severe heat and drought. More broadly they worry not that global warming will directly kill people, but that it will create discord between nations, in the form of wars over resources and refugees. And that it is these conflicts we really need to worry about.

Koonin discusses numerous potential harms, but not this one. The closest he comes is pointing out that warming is mostly occurring near the poles, rather than the equator. So while Siberia is getting much warmer (which could potentially be a good thing if you’re worried about food and refugees) the regions where most of the refugees are expected to come from are not experiencing much of an effect from warming. Perhaps Koonin assumes that people will be able to continue to live in these areas because their climate and the associated agriculture will be largely unaffected, if so that’s a pretty big assumption.

Loss of Biodiversity: Among my knowledgeable friends, this is the next big thing they worry about: a mass extinction of species caused by warming. (One of my friends calls it “The Omnicide”.) Here, I suppose Koonin might argue that warming is not the only thing causing the extinctions. Or perhaps he would argue that these extinctions will probably have little impact on us. I’m only speculating because he doesn’t make any arguments, so I have no way to judge whether he could make a persuasive argument along these lines. I suspect not. As to the former argument I’m not sure what the breakdown is between warming and things like habitat destruction, pollution, and other forms of exploitation. As to the latter, I do have some figures. From the latest issue of The Economist:

At least 9% of the 6,200 breeds of domesticated mammals that humans eat or use to produce food had become extinct by 2016, and at least 1,000 more are threatened. 

If you combine those and do the math that’s 25%. Now this is just domesticated mammals, I don’t know what the associated number is for plants, but that seems like a lot. 

Thus from my perspective Koonin completely ignores the two climatic impacts people are most concerned about. Even if you buy the rest of his arguments against climate alarmism, there’s plenty of potential alarmism left just in these two topics.

If we wanted to be more charitable we could just focus on Koonin’s criticism of science and reporting. And here my natural inclination is to be entirely on Koonin’s side. It seems obvious that we should do the best we can to uncover the true facts of the situation, and present them without embellishment. That if we can just nail down the science it will show us the path forward. 

This was obvious and this was my natural inclination — the idealism of my youth. These days I’m a little more pessimistic. First off, worldwide coordination problems, like the one presented by global warming, are extraordinarily difficult. And if you’re thinking that you’re not even sure whether it is a problem, then you’ve just illustrated my point. Agreement is the first layer of coordination and the most difficult. And while demanding additional rigor can produce more certainty, it also embeds inaction while waiting for that rigor, and tacitly opens the option to always demanding ever increasing amounts of rigor. And in a sense that’s what Koonin is doing. Yes, I understand the idea that if we can just nail down the science, the path forward will be clear. But as I’ve pointed out in a couple of previous posts this idea of “follow the science” is far more difficult than most people realize. A subject I’ll go into more in my next review.

I liked Koonin’s book. I’m glad I read it. It was particularly good as a corrective to certain forms of apocalyptic alarmism. That said I do think he missed some of the complexities inherent in the issue—complexities which shouldn’t be overlooked.

As far as the larger issue of global warming, I’ve written about it before and I’ll probably write about it again. In particular I keep coming back to nuclear power as a solution both to this issue and to many other issues. Now I know people disagree with me on this, and there is a nuanced debate to be had over what to do with the waste, and what sort of reactors we should build, and what regulations are overkill and which are not, etc. etc. But I am becoming increasingly intolerant of anyone who is worried about climate change but who refuses to entertain the idea of making it easier to increase the supply of carbon free nuclear power.


Theory and Reality: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science

By: Peter Godfrey-Smith

272 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

It’s pretty much right there in the subtitle. The book has everything from Logical Positivism, to Thomas Kuhn and Karl Popper.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who’s interested in the Philosophy of Science. Additionally I’ll say I was very impressed by how easy it was to read, unlike a lot of philosophy and a lot of textbooks.

General Thoughts

I probably hang out around rationalists too much because almost from page one I was thinking, “But what about Bayesianism? Bayesianism seems to solve this problem.” Godfrey-Smith did eventually cover Bayesianism, but when he finally got around to it, it felt like he didn’t spend as much time as I would have liked. Possibly this is just a reflection of my biases, probably because Bayesianism, particularly in 2003 when the book was written, was still a relatively new movement. Which brings me to one of the few criticisms I have of the book. I felt like Godfrey-Smith was weaker the closer he got to the present day. (The book covered the progression chronologically.) In particular when Godfrey-Smith was propounding his own philosophy, I found it less interesting and more dogmatic. Which is to say he was better at being a historian than at being a philosopher himself. 

The other criticism I want to bring up is part criticism and part confusion. I had always heard that Occam’s Razor and the principle of parsimony was a critical part of science, since there are thousands of potential explanations to choose from for any given phenomenon which all fit the evidence, and the only way to choose between them is using this principle. But Godfrey-Smith spends very little time on the idea, and when he does he’s very dismissive:

Scientists often support hypotheses via an appeal to simplicity or “parsimony.” …Given two possible explanations for the data, scientists often prefer the simpler one. Despite various elaborate attempts, I do not think we have made much progress on understanding the operation of, or justification for, this preference.  

I’m not sure what to make of this. I’m not sure when or where I heard that the principle of parsimony was a critical part of the philosophy of science, but whenever that was I remember thinking, “Well of course! It’d have to be. That’s obvious.” But when I finally read an actual book about the philosophy of science, the author speaks of it only in passing and dismissively. Have I stumbled into a fight I know nothing about? Is Godfrey-Smith part of some anti-parsimony faction? Is the principle just currently out of favor like some kind of fashion accessory? Or is its importance not nearly so obvious to everyone else as it was to me?

Beyond these two issues the book was enjoyable, easy to read, and a great examination of the essentials of scientific epistemology, but what about its…

Eschatological Implications

I recently went through some theories as to what might have happened in 1971. One of the minor ones I tossed into the mix was the idea that we broke science. This book confirmed that opinion. Which is not to say that it contained incontrovertible evidence of this happening, which I will now reveal to you in a dramatic flourish. No, it just further confirmed the difficulty of doing science, adding another layer of complexity. Before reading the book I was aware of how difficult it is to conduct good science. Having read the book, now I’m aware of all the difficulties involved in even defining what good science is. Which is not to say I had no awareness of these difficulties previously, but that Theory and Reality deepened that awareness.  

The question that confronts us as we move forward is whether these definitional difficulties are going to get worse or better. Whether the problems of science are going to get more complex or less. Well given that nearly everything in the modern world is getting more complex, I’d be surprised if the battleground of defining science ended up being one of the rare exceptions. So if the project of defining good science is getting more difficult, what do these difficulties look like? Well they look like a lot of things, but many of the greatest difficulties seem to be the same as everywhere else. They come down to identity politics.

Godfrey-Smith devotes a whole chapter to “Feminism and Science Studies”, and interestingly in my copy of the book, which I bought used, this is the only chapter to have been marked up. Make of that what you will… Some of you reading this will wonder what feminism has to do with good science, others will probably know exactly where this is headed. Here’s the description from the book:

Feminist thinking about science makes up a diverse movement. It is unified, perhaps, by the idea that science has been part of a structure that has perpetuated inequalities between men and women. Science itself, and mainstream theorizing about science and knowledge, have helped to keep women in a “second-class” position as thinkers, knowers, and intellectual citizens.

Setting aside for the moment whether science is a tool of oppression, you can see that such claims only increase the difficulties inherent in defining what good science is. This book was written in 2003, so before critical race theory and the BLM movement, but adding race to the mix only further complicates things. 

It would be one thing if the issues being raised were limited to certain minor aspects of the scientific endeavor—aspects which could be easily excised—but increasingly it appears that the entire scientific endeavor may be under attack.

Perhaps you remember the kerfuffle when the Smithsonian National Museum of African American Culture put up a graphic with various objectionable aspects of “whiteness” which included the item, “Emphasis on Scientific Method” as one of these aspects. Yes I understand it’s just one example, but it is a fairly prominent example. And even if you don’t agree that it’s evidence of an assault on the scientific endeavor it is indisputably evidence of an increasingly complicated conception of science. One that will only make it harder to agree on what separates good science from bad.

The long term impact of broken science is hard to overstate. It’s the tool that has powered all of our progress for the last 300+ years. If that tool can no longer be relied on, then we don’t have any other tools waiting to take its place. I was recently pointed at an article that sums up the situation very well, it was titled Silly people vs. serious people. The recent attacks on science risk turning us from the serious people who got us to this point into silly people who are unable to go any farther. This might be okay if everyone was becoming “silly” but they’re not. There are still plenty of serious people out there, and mostly they’re not our friends. 


II- Capsule Reviews

The Start 1904-30

by: William L. Shirer

590 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

William L. Shirer was a journalist best known for his book The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. This is the first book in his three volume autobiography.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who wants an insider’s account of Paris in the 20’s with appearances by Fitzgerald, Hemingway, Lindbergh, Woolf, etc.

General Thoughts

I have long intended to read The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, but I have yet to get around to it. This book was recommended to me by the voraciously well-read little old lady of my acquaintance and it was only after I started reading it that I made the connection. Once I did, I decided, for probably biased reasons, that it was smart to read Shirer’s biography first and then read his history. At some point I’ll be able to provide a report on whether that was in fact a wise decision, but it will probably be awhile. 

This book reminded me of The World Until Yesterday by Stefan Zweig, which I talked about the last time I visited the interwar years. Of course Zweig’s book began before World War I, and it’s in this period that the parallels are the most apparent. Which is to say pre-World War I Vienna, kind of resembles pre-World War II America. Both had a sense of optimism. Though it could be said that they were travelling in different directions. Vienna was on it’s way down while the US was on it’s way up.

Of course Shirer himself was on the way up. And in his rise you get a sense of how small the world was for an American with a college degree, even if that person was from a small town in Iowa. Now of course as a foreign correspondent Shirer lucked into a lot of things (meeting all of the people I mentioned above). But he also grew up in the same town as the guy who painted American Gothic, and had numerous well known professors and other breaks before he even made it to France. So Shirer benefited from being an American, but he was also appalled by many aspects of America.

Similar to nearly all intellectuals of the time (I point I brought up in a previous post on the interwar years.) Shirer was deeply disturbed by the inequality of the 20s, and thought that socialism was the best solution. And indeed it’s hard to read of the way capitol treated labor during this period without having similar sympathies. But it leads to this weird contrast particularly in the life of Shirer. As part of his criticisms of these horrible conditions he criticizes the idea of there being a path from poverty to wealth. He basically doesn’t believe in the American dream. For example he calls out the Horatio Alger stories for being borderline propaganda, while never seeming to be aware of the fact that he’s basically living in one of those stories.


The Storm on Our Shores: One Island, Two Soldiers, and the Forgotten Battle of World War II 

by: Obmascik, Mark

256 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A Japanese doctor who was educated in America but ended up as part of the Imperial Army that occupied Attu, and the American soldier on the other side.

Who should read this book?

If you’re interested in World War II, this is a minor story in the whole scheme of things but a fascinating one. And one of the better examinations I’ve encountered of the Japanese side of things.

General Thoughts

Paul Tatsuguchi was living happily in America, having come here to study medicine, and as Obmascik tells it he might have stayed here permanently if his wealthy older brother, hadn’t sold his sister into prostitution, forcing Tatsuguchi to move home and rescue her. This is not the most interesting part of the story, but it’s close, which is why I included it. Though just now I reviewed Tatsuguchi’s wikipedia page and this element of his story is not mentioned, so take it with a grain of salt. 

In any event while he was in Japan he was drafted into the Imperial Army. This posed two problems for Tatsuguchi. One he didn’t want to fight against America, he knew how hopeless it was, and two he was a devout Seventh-day Adventist and therefore a pacifist. But obviously he didn’t have a choice, and was eventually sent to Attu, the westernmost island in the Aleutian chain. When the Americans eventually decided to retake it, a horrible battle ensued, as was so often the case. Tatsuguchi recorded his experience of it in a diary. 

Eventually the Japanese forces decided on a final banzai attack, and during that attack Tatsuguchi was killed by Dick Laird. Laird is the other soldier mentioned in the title, and the book spends about half the time on him. He grew up poor, working from a very young age in the coal mines before finally joining the military. He ended up recovering the journal, and when it was translated and revealed that there had been an American trained doctor on the island it caused a sensation. The translation was extensively photocopied and passed around, becoming almost holy writ for some of the men.


Catherine the Great: Portrait of a Woman

by: Robert K. Massie

672 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A biography of Catherine the Great, absolute ruler of Russia from 1762 to 1796.

Who should read this book?

If you enjoy history at all Massie is one of the best. I wouldn’t say this was quite as interesting as Peter the Great, but it was still quite good.

General Thoughts

Catherine did a lot of amazing things, and I obviously don’t have space to cover them all, so I’d like to just focus on Catherine’s aspiration to be an enlightened monarch. These days no one questions the idea that some form of democracy is the best form of government, and that absolute autocracies are the worst. But that was far from clear back then (and I’m not sure it’s quite as clear as we think even now.) Back then many people thought that the only way for progress to occur was under the guidance of an absolute monarch who had adopted enlightenment ideals. 

At the beginning of her reign this is precisely what Catherine tried to be. She corresponded with Voltaire, she bought the library of Denis Diderot, but let him keep it, while paying him to be its caretaker when he ran into financial difficulties.  Diderot ended up living in St. Petersburg for five months, and he and Catherine talked nearly every day. One of her first projects as monarch was to standardize the complicated and confusing set of Russia laws left by Peter the Great. As part of this project she put together a book of instructions containing the underlying principles she wanted the legal code to reflect. This included things like equality before the law for all Russians, greater protection for serfs, and a prohibition on torture and capital punishment. In earlier drafts of her instructions Catherine even proposed entirely freeing the serfs. And keep in mind that she wrote all this stuff a decade before the Declaration of Independence. 

Having put these instructions together she called together people from all walks of life, from nobles to peasants and charged them to use her instructions to come up with a new, more enlightened Russian legal code. These people met for a year and a half. The meetings were rancorous and unproductive. In the end this assembly accomplished basically nothing and after being suspended because Russia had gone to war with the Ottoman’s it was never restarted. By the time the French revolution erupted near the end of her reign Catherine had turned decisively against anything resembling democracy and many of the enlightenment ideals she had previously embraced.

The point of all this being that there was an enormous amount of progress in Russia under Catherine. But as the practical difficulties of making this progress became apparent Catherine became more and more disaffected with actual progressive methodology. As an actual monarch ruling over actual people she soon discovered that the lofty ideals of Voltaire and Diderot were horribly impractical. And when people tried to implement them you ended up with the French Revolution. I’m not sure what the lesson for the present day is, but I’m sure there is one.


Tiamat’s Wrath 

by: James S. A. Corey

544 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This book mostly wraps up the Laconian plotline and sets everything up for the ninth and final book.

Who should read this book?

I will repeat, with a slight modification, what I said last time. It’s book 8 of a series, presumably by this point you should know whether or not you’re the audience for this book.

General Thoughts

I’ve quite enjoyed the Expanse series, and out of all the books, this one has to be near the top. That said I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t have some quibbles, and interestingly those quibbles relate to the last book. The bad guy in the book (more or less, I’m trying not to spoil things) is an absolute autocrat, similar to Catherine. And as absolute autocrats go, he’s pretty enlightened. Yet, the good guys are not only convinced that he’s going to have a negative impact on humanity’s chances, they’re also convinced that the whole endeavor will inexorably flame out in a couple of years. Beyond being historically illiterate this attitude is also hopelessly hypocritical, because the good guys are basically all autocrats themselves. We never read of one of the main characters being thrown out by an election. Or having to deal with a representative body, or changing course because of public opinion. They’re basically all autocrats, it’s just because they’ve been designated as the good guys that it all works out. While the other guy has been designated as the bad guy so we know it’s not going to work out for him.

Of course I understand that this is a novel, and certain things aren’t entertaining, so I’m not criticizing the writing. In fact I’m convinced that if they had included all those things I just mentioned that I would have enjoyed the series less. I just thought it was interesting to contrast the two books. The one dealing with an actual historical autocrat who was enormously successful, and the other dealing with fictional autocrats who find success entirely based on whether they have been designated as protagonists or antagonists.


What I Saw in America 

by: G. K. Chesterton

159 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A Tocquevillian examination of America written while Chesterton was in the country on a speaking tour.

Who should read this book?

I have a 50 book Chesterton collection on my Kindle. I haven’t decided if I’m going to read them all, but I would say that unless you’re engaged in some endeavor similar to that, you can probably skip this one.

General Thoughts

This is another book (similar to The Start) which focuses on the interwar years. And just like with Shirer, wealth inequality was very much on Chesterton’s mind, though obviously he didn’t think socialism was the solution. He mostly thought that rich people should stop applying the law unequally. He was there during prohibition, and it provides a good example of the kind of thing he was talking about. Despite the ban, rich people basically drank in the same fashion as they did before the amendment. It was the poor people who were deprived of alcohol. Prohibition wasn’t designed to stop all drinking it was designed to stop the drinking those in power disapproved of—low class drinking if you will.

He provides other examples of these sorts of disparities, some involving wealth or living conditions, and in this respect he was very similar to Shirer and others, but whereas those advocating socialism felt that the government was the solution through passing new laws and enforcing them. Chesterton seemed to be advocating that rich people just needed to be more moral, that the right thing to do was clear and they just needed to work on being more righteous. Given his impression that the chief problem was rich people were ignoring the laws already in existence, I can see why he didn’t think more laws were the answer.


III- Religious Reviews

Job: A New Translation 

by: Edward L. Greenstein

248 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is the Book of Job from the Bible, retranslated with extensive commentary. Also it’s about how all previous translations got it wrong.

Who should read this book?

If you like reading things that were written a very long time ago, or if you like the story of Job enough to really dig into it, or if reading about the ancients grappling with theodicy is one of your “love languages” this might be the book for you.

General Thoughts

I’ve read the entire Old Testament, once. And I confess that it was more to check off a box than an attempt to deeply engage with it, so it was nice to deeply engage with at least one book. 

Job reminds me a little bit of Gilgamesh, possibly just because of how old they both are. It also reminds me of Plato’s Dialogues (which I’m in the process of working through) because that’s what the book basically is, a series of dialogues.

Of course while these comparisons and observations are somewhat interesting, what you really want to know is what Greenstein thinks other translators got wrong. Well in the introduction to chapter 42 where in most translations Job acquiesces and all of his misery is undone, Greenstein claims that instead:

Job understands the deity to be exactly as he had feared: a purveyor of power who cares little for people. Parodying the divine discourse through mimicry, Job expresses disdain toward the deity and pity toward human kind (and not acquiescence, as has been generally thought;)

I’m always a little wary when someone comes along in the Year of our Lord 2019 and claims to have discovered a new interpretation of a text which was overlooked by everyone else for thousands of years. But I will give him credit for making things interesting, and he may even be correct, I just have an inbuilt bias against such efforts.

But I did enjoy learning about the fact that Job is essentially trying to bring a lawsuit against God, the exact details of how and under what customs he is doing so are not worth getting into, but in the end, as Greenstein summarizes:

…[T]he deity is able to dismiss Job’s testimony about him pro forma—Job lacks the firsthand knowledge of a witness that is required in order to make the claims in his lawsuit. God extricates himself from the lawsuit without having to explain Job’s suffering to him or to his companions.

In a sense this is the perpetual argument atheists have with theists. They feel that this life provides sufficient evidence to prove the truth of their claims, while theists claim that there is evidence outside of this life which needs to be considered. To this Mormons add yet another wrinkle by asserting that we existed before this life and may have made agreements we voluntarily choose to forget. Based on Greenstein’s summary he seems to fall into the atheist camp, and as such suffering presents an insuperable barrier to the existence of God. But I’m totally on God’s side here. Even if we were to assume God’s absence I still feel pretty comfortable assuming that humans don’t have enough knowledge to pass final judgement on reality however it’s constructed.


I keep trying to keep these book review posts short, but I keep failing. If you like them as they are or if you’d like them shorter and have suggestions on what I could cut out, or if you just want to yell at me and hope it makes you feel better please don’t hesitate. But I will mention that my love language is donations to my patreon.


The 10 Books I Finished in May

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  1. A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence by: Jeff Hawkins
  2. One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger by: Matthew Yglesias
  3. Persepolis Rising by: James S. E. Corey
  4. Project Hail Mary by: Andy Weir
  5. The Perfect Dictatorship: China in the 21st Century by: Stein Ringen
  6. The Ethics of Authenticity by: Charles Taylor
  7. Legal Systems Very Different From Ours by: David D. Friedman
  8. Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage by: Alfred Lansing
  9. The Graveyard Book (Graphic Novel) by: Neil Gaiman Adapted by: P. Craig Russell Illustrated by: Various
  10. Learning from Loss: The Democrats, 2016–2020 by: Seth Masket

It’s the end of the school year, and this one has been particularly dramatic. My two oldest both graduated from college, and my youngest graduated from high school. Beyond that my wife is a school teacher and this year has easily been her most difficult. She was required to do her normal in person teaching, while on top of that to prepare everything again for a separate virtual track. Which more than doubled her workload. My two oldest didn’t have a normal graduation ceremony, and spent much of their final year in virtual classes, which I don’t think they enjoyed. But the person who really suffered was my youngest. The pandemic clobbered the end of her junior year and most of her senior year. At a time when kids should be spending time with their friends and going to games and dances, she did far less of that than normal. Fortunately though they cancelled prom last year, they didn’t this year, which I was overjoyed to hear. She ended up missing the majority of her high school dances, I was glad she got to go to prom.

We did a lot during the pandemic to save the lives of old people. And it was easy to know if we were succeeding or not by looking at how many of them died. Of course in order to protect these lives we made sacrifices, we sacrificed the lives of the young for the lives of the old. Not literally of course, their sacrifice was less dramatic, but they did make sacrifices. In the end, perhaps whatever sacrifice the young needed to make was entirely worth it. It will probably end up being only a minor disruption, and quickly forgotten. Kids are pretty resilient after all. But when I consider everything my daughter was looking forward to that she ended up missing out on, and then beyond that to consider the millions of other kids who missed out on stuff I can’t help but be sad. Also it’s clearly a perversion of the natural order to have the very young make sacrifices for the very old, and I suspect that these days we do it far too often. 


I- Eschatological Reviews

A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence

By: Jeff Hawkins

288 Pages

Briefly, what was this book about?

How the brain works, and what implications that has for artificial intelligence.

Who should read this book?

If you’re at all interested in artificial intelligence or neurology you should probably read this book. 

General Thoughts

This is a follow-up to Hawkins’ previous book, On Intelligence, which introduced the predictive processing model of the brain. I loved On Intelligence so I was eager to read Hawkins’ follow-up. I also enjoyed this book, but it was not nearly so revelatory as his first one, though it was more ambitious. However, I’m not sure this ambition was a good thing.

In this book Hawkins fleshes out the predictive processing model introduced in On Intelligence. For those unfamiliar with the idea, the predictive processing model holds that the brain works by creating predictions for what it will see and hear and then uses those predictions in essence to meet sensory input half way. That’s a simplistic explanation for a fascinating topic, and if it’s still unclear I would recommend the wikipedia article I linked to. In this book Hawkins adds two new ideas:

First off he presents the idea of reference frames. If the brain is going to make predictions it has to have a framework around which to base its predictions. Thus, according to Hawkins, intelligence relies on a large collection of models. It models objects, rooms, ideas, etc. Once these models are in place it can compare them against what it encounters in reality and use them to identify objects, catalog things which are new, and make judgements based on how closely things correspond or deviate from these models. 

His second idea, embodiment, is closely related to reference frames. A brain has to be attached to a source of sensory input to something in order to make and use these models. Perhaps not in theory, but in practice when all the food and the predators were physical, reference frames ended up being very closely tied to the actual environment. This means our intelligence is intimately connected to our bodies, and that creating an intelligence without giving it a body to control as it goes about collecting data and turning it into models is to miss the entire definition of intelligence. In more concrete terms Hawkins asserts that robotics will end up being critical to AI, that thinking is inseparable from moving. The natural question is whether we could simulate a physical environment. I think Hawkins could have spent more space on this question, but his answer appears to be that we cannot, not in a way that leads to actual intelligence.

Underlying all of this is the neocortex, the most recent addition to the brain and the seat of intelligence. The fundamental unit of the neocortex is the cortical column, which makes it also the fundamental unit of intelligence. If we assume (as Hawkins does) that each cortical column takes up one square millimeter at the surface of the brain and has a depth of 2.5 millimeters (the thickness of the neocortex) then humans have 150,000 of them. (Thus the title of the book.) And each one can contain parts of thousands of different models. But the key fact, according to Hawkins, is that they all have essentially the same architecture, and as such if we can just duplicate a cortical column we can attach it to a “body” and we’ll have intelligence, and consciousness. 

I will leave a full discussion of the book’s implications for AI and the “hard problem of consciousness” to the experts. Though I do find his contention that AI will need to learn through movement fascinating for religious reasons which I’ll get into at the very end of the post. And as far as consciousness, according to Hawkins it will be easy to replicate and should carry no particular moral weight, meaning it’s not a big deal to shut off such machines even if they are conscious, and getting into why takes us to:

Eschatological Implications

A big part of Hawkins’ book is making a division between the neocortex and the “old brain” and while he doesn’t go as far as some people I’ve seen (Tim Urban over at Wait but Why makes the same distinction and claims that “the Higher Mind [i.e. the neocortex] values truth above all else” and yes it was bold in the original.) Hawkins basically claims that all of the problems we’re currently grappling with as humans, the biases, the divisions, the violence, etc. originates in the old brain. Thus when we build an artificial neocortex it won’t have any of that bad stuff because we won’t have built an old brain along with it. Apparently caring about survival and consciousness is one of those bad things, which is why shutting off AIs which lack old brains will not carry any moral weight. Moreover, an AI built in such a fashion will be perfectly subservient and docile. From all this Hawkins concludes that all those people who are worried about AI risk are worried about nothing.

At a bare minimum such a blanket rejection seems hasty, but there’s a case to be made that it’s worse than that, that it’s actually staggeringly naive. I can think of at least 4 reasons why this might be the case:

  1. As I’ve pointed out over and over again civilization is the accumulation of cultural evolution. Out of this we’ve gotten things like rule of law, expectations of reciprocity, positive systems of belief, etc. Let’s assume, as Hawkings appears to, that none of this is built in, that we’re born as a blank slate with respect to these issues. This would mean that a blank neocortex would have none of this very important cultural evolution either. Nevertheless it seems important that they acquire it. How is that to be accomplished? This seems like a reasonably important and difficult issue, and I’m just talking about the technical aspects, forget the arguments which would arise over deciding which “culture” to embed in our AI.
  2. More importantly there are studies that indicate you actually can’t make even routine decisions without emotions, and further that emotion is tied to perception, attention, learning, memory, reasoning, and problem solving. But emotions are all part of the bad old brain, so we’d have to come up with some other way of providing the AI with emotions or at least something which directs the neocortex. But wouldn’t this just take us back to the AI alignment problem?
  3. Another reason Hawkins has for dismissing AI risk is if we take it as given that intelligence needs to be embodied in order to learn, this inevitably puts a cap on how fast the AIs can develop. A computer may be able to play a million games of virtual chess in only a moment or two, but if it tries to play physical chess that fast the robot arm won’t be able to keep up. This is an important point, but I think Hawkins dismisses the potential of virtual worlds too easily. Also I think he underestimates the advantage of being able to clone experts and mass produce bodies. Which is to say there’s a good chance that if one robot spends the time necessary to become an expert in a given domain, we can copy that robot as often as we want, or even add that expertise to other robots. 
  4. The impression I got from the book is that if we can figure out how to create a cortical column then the problem of intelligence would be solved beyond a few trivial issues that are barely worth mentioning. One of these issues that was apparently too trivial to mention is the specialization between the left and right hemispheres, something I went into great detail on in a previous post. (Left brain obsesses over details, right brain is the one that assembles them into coherent wholes.) This oversight is just one example, I suspect there is vast complexity in the cortex that would not be captured by just duplicating cortical columns.

These are all significant problems, despite that it seems clear that if you think understanding natural intelligence is an important step in creating artificial intelligence, you’re going to have to grapple with Hawkins’ ideas. If we are as close to AI as Hawkins claims, it would carry profound implications for the future of humanity and our eventual destiny. This endeavor touches on most of the hot topics in the trans/posthumanist space, and in the last part of the book he also grapples with these.  He vigorously disagrees with the idea that anyone is ever going to want to have their brain uploaded, and he’s also fairly dismissive of the idea of integrating brains and computers cybernetically. He knows that part of this desire is connected with a desire for immortality which leads him to a discussion of ways to achieve immortality for humanity and Fermi’s Paradox. Here he summarily dismisses worries about announcing our existence (i.e. the Dark Forest explanation) and offers some ideas for creating a civilizational archive.

I agree with most of his predictions, though often for very different reasons, but I wonder if it would be a better book if he had leaned in more to these additional topics or ignored them entirely. His tactic of touching on them briefly gave the appearance of arrogance, and leads to the accusation that Hawkins feels that because he has solved one problem, how the brain works, that he can use that methodology to solve all problems.

I don’t think Hawkins has solved all the problems of the future, and I don’t even think he’s solved all of the problems of intelligence as comprehensively as he imagines. Nevertheless I think this book represents a significant step forward in our understanding of natural intelligence, which is why, despite my numerous criticisms, you should still probably read this book. 


One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger

By: Matthew Yglesias

268 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This book is less about dramatically increasing the population than the title suggests. That is in there, but it is at least as much about ambitious technocratic solutions to our current problems.

Who should read this book?

If you like Yglesias then subscribe to his substack. (I do.) If you think his problem solving approach is so important that you should read everything you can about it, then also read this book, but I think from the standpoint of information density and utility the substack is better.

General Thoughts

As I said this book is less about the mechanics of getting “One Billion Americans” than the title would suggest, and at least as much about the subtitle “The Case for Thinking Bigger”. This disconnect violates one of Yglesias’ own rules, it doesn’t do what it says on the tin. (I really like this rule, I did a whole post on it.) As an example of this lack, nowhere in the book does he lay out a timeline for how long he expects this population increase to take — 20 years? By the end of the century? He never even hints at this answer which seems like the bare minimum one should expect for a proposal like this. I suspect he leaves it out because it would point out some obvious difficulties with the idea. But clearly if we’re going to evaluate his idea we need to know what those difficulties might be, so let’s see if we can infer them based on what he does say. 

Space-wise he spends about the same amount of time on increasing population through increasing the birthrate as he does on increasing it through immigration, and he frequently talks about one billion as a tripling of the population. Obviously the first part of the three parts is the current population, so let’s say the second is babies born to current Americans and the third part is immigration. If we can decide a reasonable rate for adding the second part we can come up with a timeline for the whole endeavor. Currently the US Population is growing at 0.3% per year. At that rate it would take until 2256 for the population to double, and I’m assuming that much of that 0.3% is already due to immigration, but let’s be optimistic and assume it’s all births to current Americans, obviously we’re going to have to increase that rate, but how much is reasonable?

Let’s say we got it all the way to 1% in this case it would take until 2092. This would require that government incentives triple the population growth, something no government has even come close to doing, and we’re still looking at 2092. Israel has the highest population growth of any developed country at 1.44%, and they achieve that mostly through their huge population of orthodox Jews, so as it turns out religion is more powerful than policy. (A point I think I make all the time.) Even if we were to manage to get to that rate of growth it would still take until 2070 to double the population. This starts out as around five million new people per year and by 2070 it’s around 9 million people, since we’re assuming equal contribution from immigration this means that we’re also admitting that many immigrants. Currently we have around 46 million 1st generation immigrants, so we’d be doubling that number in 10 years, and eventually adding that many more immigrants every five years. And recall that these huge numbers get even huger if we can’t vastly increase the birthrate. So under the most optimistic scenario we’d need Israeli birthrates, 330 million immigrants and it wouldn’t happen until 2070.

One of the reasons Ygelsias gives for needing this massive population growth is to enable us to stay ahead of China. This is a big part of his book, it first comes up in the second paragraph of the introduction. As I’ve pointed out, getting to a billion Americans by 2070 would be a staggering achievement. Does anyone think it’s going to take 50 years before things come to a head with China? All of which is to say Yglesias is either encouraging politically inconceivable amounts of immigration, or he assumes that we will have many, many decades of runway before it will be a problem.

I focus on the unreality of Yglesias’ logistics first because if he’s actually serious then the minimum he can do is put together a timeline and some numbers. He has positioned himself as a pragmatist and I would think a timeline would be the bare minimum required for something to be considered a pragmatic solution. But the second thing I want to bring up is probably more serious, though at least he has an ideological excuse for ignoring it: 

It’s the problem of assimilating this massive influx of immigrants. My memory is that the topic of assimilation never appears in the book, certainly it’s never seriously grappled with. I bought the book expecting to be able to confirm this using the index, but it doesn’t have an index! (I would have bought the kindle version so I could search, but the hardback was actually less expensive.) I understand that some people believe assimilation to be unnecessary or even harmful, but I think they’re mistaken, particularly when dealing with an influx as massive as the one being discussed in this book..

Eschatological Implications

In some respects what this book has is an anti-eschatology. It contends that we can continue to avoid history and the catastrophes that accompany it if we just have a billion Americans, and perhaps more importantly if we implement his ambitious technocratic proposals, which cover areas like energy (way more nuclear), infrastructure (figure out and eliminate cost disease), and immigration (way more, but with some filtering). 

In this latter respect this book somewhat resembles Where Is My Flying Car, by J. Storrs Hall which I reviewed back in March. Hall claims all our problems can be solved by scientists and engineers if the government would just get out of the way. Yglesias claims that all our problems can be solved by government bureaucrats, though it’s not entirely clear who needs to get out of their way, perhaps the bureaucrats need to get out of their own way? This is the charitable interpretation of the book. But I don’t think it quite captures the book’s essence. No, for that we need to turn to Gary Larson’s The Far Side.

In one of the strips from this classic comic we see a man trapped in a box full of snakes hanging from the side of a tall building. The caption reads: “Professor Gallagher and his controversial technique of simultaneously confronting the fear of heights, snakes and the dark.” This appears to be the same technique Yglesias is advocating, that if America just had a billion people we would be forced to figure out a solution to transportation, infrastructure spending, and NIMBYism. And Yglesias has some decent ideas for how to do these things. Of course we would presumably also have to figure out racism, education (in particular racial achievement gaps), climate change and border control (Yglesias doesn’t want to admit just anyone). And here his ideas are far more vague, though I appreciated his advocacy of nuclear power. 

On one level you think, that might just be crazy enough to work! But on another level I think I would have been more interested in hearing the one thing he would focus on first, rather than his vague and crazy plan to solve everything all at once.


II- Capsule Reviews

Persepolis Rising (The Expanse #7)

By: James S. A. Corey

560 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This book jumps 30 years into the future and finally reveals what’s been happening with the renegade Martians who’ve been hiding out all this time in the Laconian system.

Who should read this book?

It’s book 7 of a series, presumably by this point you should know whether or not you’re the audience for this book.

General Thoughts

The improbable centrality of James Holden and his associates to everything that happens everywhere continues in this next book of the Expanse series. But that’s okay. Since I came to the realization that the Expanse is just the campaign log for a particularly well run science fiction themed role-playing game that particular conceit has been a lot easier to stomach.

This book continues the interesting and capably written science fiction of the previous books with one notable exception. Singh, the viewpoint character for nearly a quarter of the chapters and the primary antagonist, did not gel for me. He was a bundle of attributes that never cohered. And out of all the attributes in that bundle he lacked the one you most expected him to have. So great was this lack that the book acknowledged its peculiarity and provided a perfunctory explanation. (I believe the cool kids call this lampshade hanging.) But as you might be able to tell I found the explanation entirely inadequate. This wouldn’t have been so bad, but the Expanse series has actually done a reasonably good job of constructing interesting antagonists, and the Laconians have the potential to be the most interesting of all, but by making Singh the Laconian who gets the most screen time they fatally undermine this endeavor.


Project Hail Mary

by: Andy Weir

496 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is the third book by the author of The Martian. (Now a major Hollywood motion picture starring Matt Damon!) This book is also the story of a scientist/engineer who finds himself alone and far away from home and must use his science/engineering chops to save the day.

Who should read this book?

If you liked The Martian I’m pretty confident you’ll like this book.

General Thoughts

As I mentioned this book is very similar to The Martian, but that’s okay. Lot’s of authors essentially write the same book over and over again (Fleming, Le Carre, Clancy, Crichton, Doyle, etc.) and if that’s where their talent is that’s what they should do. And clearly Weir has a talent for this sort of book, so he should probably write as many of them as he and we can stomach. That said, as is so often the case, I had a couple of problems with the book, one minor and one existential. 

Starting with the minor one, Weir, like so many science fiction authors who end up touching on Fermi’s Paradox, falls prey to the Mistake of Dramatic Timing, where despite the fact that something could have happened anytime in the last 100 million years (if not far longer) it happens at some point in the next 20, at a point where it’s occurrence creates the most drama. But as I said this is a failing common to many authors, not just Weir. 

The existential issue I have involves massive spoilers, so I have hidden it but if you select the space below you can see it. But, seriously think carefully before you do, I am spoiling the central mystery/reveal of the book, and if you don’t want that spoiled then come back after you’ve read it.

The main character has amnesia, and the central mystery of the book is how he ended up on the spaceship, since as his memories return it’s clear that he was not supposed to be on it, someone else was and on top of that, there was another person as a backup for the first  person. As you read you figure that something obviously happened to the primary crew member and their backup and indeed near the end you find out that they both end up dying in a freak accident. And Ryland Grace, the main character, ends up being the best person to take their place, in part because he’s been intimately involved in the project and already mostly has all the necessary knowledge, and in part because he’s got the rare gene which allows people to survive the artificial coma the crew is going to have to undergo in order to make the 13 light year trip. (Not 13 years for the crew because of relativity, but long enough that without the coma the mission planners are confident the crew will end up going crazy and killing on another.) 

So far so normal, authors create contrived situations all the time in order to end up with the story they want. It’s contrived that the other two crew members would die, leaving him alone. It’s contrived that the main character would have amnesia. And the whole book is a contrivance constructed to get a junior high science teacher on an interstellar ship. But all of these I can forgive, because they’re part of the story. But then there’s one contrivance which ends up being part of Grace’s character and I can’t believe that Grace would act this way, and furthermore I can’t believe that Weir thought it was acceptable to write the character this way.

Near the climax of the book Grace finally remembers the accident which kills the person who was supposed to go as the science officer and that person’s backup. When this happens the woman in charge (who I love) asks him to take their place. And when she makes this request, when she tells him that the only hope of the ENTIRE WORLD and EVERYONE ON IT depends on him, that they’re days away from launch and it would be impossible to train someone else, he refuses to go.

What sort of person would refuse this request?!?! (Honestly, and I know this is abjectly sexist according to conventional norms, but what kind of man would refuse this request?) More than that, what sort of author thinks this unbelievable level of cowardice is an acceptable trait for anyone let alone their main character? And most important of all, how did we reach this point as a society where we have no problem accepting the idea that it should be someone’s right to refuse to save the world? That even if someone is the only hope for saving the world, that they can just say they don’t feel like it and that’s an understandable and acceptable motivation? I’ve looked around some and no one else seems to have this problem. Now possibly it hasn’t come up because it’s a huge spoiler, but before you let society off the hook also remember that Weir not only had to come up with the idea and it had to get past numerous editors and first readers. As one final point, compare this to the heroic novels of just a few decades ago and try to imagine how people back then would have reacted. 

As I mentioned in a previous post I’ve been reading the archives of The Last Psychiatrist, and he frequently talks about the way narcissism has become the defining trait of modernity. Could there be a better example than this? Perhaps? But this is a doozy regardless. 

Now Weir has a reason. In establishing that Grace’s desire to live is so strong that he would refuse to save the world (the mission is one way). When, later in the book, he has to choose between living and doing something else noble (I could go into details, but I’m trying not to spoil everything) it makes this choice more noble because we already know how much he wanted to live, enough to choose it over saving the planet. But couldn’t Weir have accomplished the same thing by doing something similar to what Nolan did in Interstellar — give the guy a daughter? Yes he would have been copying Interstellar, and yes it would have introduced some other complexities, but that’s kind of the point. How did it come to seem that the best choice, and more importantly a believable choice was making Grace a coward with zero sense of duty?

Finally as perhaps a denouement to my rant. Even if we ignore what this choice says about our world, it’s still hard to argue that it wasn’t a dramatic choice, and one that received zero foreshadowing. To consider just one possibility overlooked by Weir, there’s the scene where Grace finds out he has this rare gene, and he doesn’t introspect at all about what it might mean with respect to this mission he’s deeply involved in. Weir could have foreshadowed his terror at the idea, making his eventual choice at least somewhat more believable.

Having read this spoiler you may wonder why I’m recommending the book. Well it comes at the end, the noble thing which follows it, somewhat redeems the choice, and the book up until this reveal is genuinely fantastic. 


The Perfect Dictatorship: China in the 21st Century 

By: Stein Ringen

194 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Defining what sort of government China has and what we can expect out of it going forward. 

Who should read this book?

If you’re really trying to understand China this is a valuable addition to that quest. If not, the book is pretty technical and dry.

General Thoughts

I already talked at some length about this book in a post from a couple of weeks ago, though in that post I mostly focused on Ringen’s predictions. The book actually spends most of its time assessing how successful the Communist party has been at ruling China, and the conclusion is “mediocre”. Ringen points out that South Korea modernized far faster and far more successfully, and that most of China’s success is a natural byproduct of being so huge and from starting at basically zero after Mao comprehensively wrecked the country. 

In a past post on China I wondered if, based on Fukuyama’s Hegelian analysis of history, if China represented the synthesis of a new and more successful form of government. Having read this book I think we can be reasonably confident that it’s not. And if Ringen is correct it’s swiftly moving to a form of government we already tried, and with disastrous results: facism. 


The Ethics of Authenticity

By: Charles Taylor

201 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The way in which supporters and critics of the modern drive for authenticity end up missing the point.

Who should read this book?

This is a densely written book, similar to the other book I’ve read by Taylor, A Secular Age but not nearly so long, so it’s a great way to get both a sense of Taylor and a nuanced discussion of authenticity, but it is pretty academic.

General Thoughts

Arguments over authenticity generally fall into two camps. There are the people arguing that it’s acceptable to abandon everything, religion, family, and even spouses if it brings someone closer to their authentic self. And then there are people who think such abandonment is everything that’s wrong with the modern world, and an elaborate justification for the worst kind of selfish and destructive behavior. In this book Taylor attempts to strike a middle ground between these two views. He understands the importance of individual choice, of allowing people to choose what seems most authentic to them, but argues that in order for that choice to have any meaning there still has to be a background of external values. From the book:

Even the sense that the significance of my life comes from its being chosen — the case where authenticity is actually grounded on self-determining freedom — depends on the understanding that independent of my will there is something noble, courageous, and hence significant in giving shape to my own life…unless some options are more significant than others, the very idea of self-choice falls into triviality and hence incoherence. Self-choice as an ideal makes sense only because some issues are more significant than others…Which issues are significant I do not determine. If I did, no issue would be significant.

Legal Systems Very Different From Ours

By: David D. Friedman

366 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The collected descriptions of historical legal systems with very different ways of doing things.

Who should read this book?

If you have libertarian leanings, or a fascination with historical legal systems, or if the idea of the book sounds interesting, you should read it. 

General Thoughts

I read this book as part of a Slate Star Codex reading group. The book was selected because it was reviewed on SSC. I don’t think I can improve on, or even add much, to that review. I will say that the discussion of historical methods for dealing with a legal code which was literally handed down by God — as is the case with Jews and Muslims (and to a lesser extent Mormons) — was fascinating. In these situations there needs to be some flexibility in enforcing the law particularly as times change — to give a simple example enforcing Jewish law in a Jewish state is a lot easier than enforcing it when you’re ruled over by the Romans — but a system of law which came directly from the mouth of God doesn’t naturally lend itself to flexibility. The historical ways in which flexibility was justified in spite of this made for some very interesting reading.


Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage

By: Alfred Lansing

357 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Ernest Shackleton’s aborted attempt to cross Antarctica in 1914 and the amazing survival story which took place after his ship was destroyed by the ice.

Who should read this book?

Everyone. Certainly everyone who isn’t intimately familiar with this amazing story.

General Thoughts

Many years ago I watched a TV show about Shackleton and since then I’ve been enthralled by the story, but I hadn’t really come across a good book about it (which is not to say that I looked very hard) so I was grateful when one of my readers recommended this book. It was a quick read (10 hours on audio) but I don’t think it skimped on the details. And really the story, particularly the part where Shackleton sails a 20 foot open boat 800 miles across the worst seas in the world to get help, is just incredible.


The Graveyard Book (Graphic Novel)

By: Neil Gaiman

Adapted by: P. Craig Russell

Illustrated by: Various

368 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

It’s a graphic novel adaptation of Gaiman’s novel of the same name, which itself is a re-imagining of Kipling’s Jungle Book, with a graveyard in place of a jungle.

Who should read this book?

Everyone should definitely read The Graveyard Book, the question is whether the graphic novel version is faithful enough to serve as a replacement for the original novel. I would say probably, but I really think you should probably just read both, in which case I would probably start with the novel.

General Thoughts

I’m a huge fan of graphic novels (and it’s a mystery why I don’t read more, they would definitely help pump up my numbers). And I’m a huge fan of Gaiman and in particular The Graveyard Book so the other day when I was browsing through a Barnes and Noble and saw this book I immediately bought it and read it. 

Obviously when talking about a graphic novel you need to discuss the artwork. I thought it was good, but not incredible. There were slightly more examples of the artwork being worse than what I had imagined than there were examples of it being better. But that’s probably more a comment on how great the novel was at stoking my imagination than any comment on the skill of the artists. The art was great, and I’m glad I bought the book.


Learning from Loss: The Democrats, 2016–2020

By: Seth Masket

256 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A data driven examination of what lessons the Democrats took from their loss in 2016 as they considered who to nominate in 2020.

Who should read this book?

Hardcore political junkies who think anecdotes just slow things down.

General Thoughts

Over the last few years I’ve read two great books about the lead up to the 2016 election from the Republican perspective. One was The Wilderness by McKay Coppins, the other was American Carnage by Tim Alberta (you can find my review of it here.) I immensely enjoyed both books, and was looking for something that did the same thing but from the perspective of the Democrats, I thought this might be such a book, it was not. Wilderness and Carnage were full of amazing anecdotes and behind the scenes stories. Learning from Loss was a collection of data from numerous surveys asking high level Democrats why they thought they had lost in 2016, and then graphs and analysis of their responses. I suppose that this methodology is more generally useful than knowing what Mitt Romney’s reaction was when Jeb Bush preemptively hired all the people qualified to run a campaign, but the latter is way more engaging. All of which is to say I did learn some things — for example lots of people blamed the loss on too big of an emphasis on identity politics which is how we ended up with an old white guy — but overall it was a pretty dull book.

III- Religious Reviews

A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence [Addendum]

I mentioned above that the contention that intelligence has to be embodied is very interesting from a religious perspective. In particular I’m thinking of my own religion. In Mormon cosmology there is not only life after death, but there was life before birth. In that state people are specifically referred to as “intelligences” and one of the primary reasons to be born is in order to get a body. That the next step if you want to progress as an intelligence is to be embodied. Obviously it would be very easy to make too much of the way this correlates with what Hawkins is saying, but I find it a fascinating correlation nonetheless.


I worry about these posts being too long, though I’m sure the anchor links at the top help. Is there any benefit to breaking them up into separate posts, maybe spreading them out over the month? Would it give the impression of more content and thus encourage more donations? Obviously anything that encourages someone to donate is a good thing. 


The 9 Books I Finished in April (and something Extra!)

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  1. “Engineering the Apocalypse” Podcast Episode by Sam Harris and Rob Reid
  2. This Could Be Our Future: A Manifesto for a More Generous World by: Yancey Strickler
  3. The Lion Tracker’s Guide to Life by: Boyd Varty
  4. Babylon’s Ashes by: James S. E. Corey
  5. Peter the Great: His Life and World by: Robert K. Massie
  6. Exhalation: Stories by: Ted Chiang
  7. What’s Wrong With the World by: G. K. Chesterton
  8. Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future by: Margaret Heffernan
  9. Cult of Smart: How Our Broken Education System Perpetuates Social Injustice by: Fredrik deBoer
  10. Mormon Philosophy Simplified: An Easy LDS Approach to Classic Philosophical Questions by: Brittney Hartley

In my last essay I was critical of the way Black Lives Matter emphasized some things while ignoring others. Which might have led some to conclude that I’m pro-police. I am not, I am pro what works. And there is clearly a lot about the justice system which does not work. And I got a couple of tastes of it in April. They were small, even tiny tastes nowhere near what some people have been through, but indicative of the perverse incentives we’re currently grappling with. 

The first taste I got was the tinier of the two, but it did impact me directly. I have a friend in prison. This friend is trying to get some education while he’s in there so that when they finally let him out, sometime in his late 50’s/early 60’s, he might be able to get a job. The chief difficulty in this endeavor is getting the books he needs for the classes he’s taking. The prison is very restrictive on books, allowing them from only a single vendor and sometimes not even then. I once tried to send him Robert Greene’s 33 Strategies of War because it was available through the approved vendor and it was rejected for encouraging violence. (It’s far more a self help book than a manual for gang warfare.)  The approved vendor has a very limited selection and you’d be amazed at the kind of stuff they don’t carry. They don’t even have things like Harry Potter, so as you might guess they’re never going to carry the textbooks he needs. You can get specific books approved but the process is laborious, and ultimately dependent on the whim of the guards.

In an effort to get the required textbooks to him I’ve frequently had to disassemble the books, photocopy them and then gradually mail them to him intermixed with other stuff. As you can imagine this process is also laborious and subject to the whims of the prison mail room. So he decided to actually try getting the most recent required textbook approved. Fortunately it was. So I dutifully sent it down still in the shrink wrap with the approval slip, and this time it was rejected for not being in a white envelope! See that’s another rule they implemented a year or so ago. You can’t use manila folders to send stuff. Why? I have no idea. They obviously open up everything before it gets to the prisoner. Why do they care what color the envelope is? 

The other justice system abuse happened to the friend of a friend. Apparently she was arrested as part of some long running investigation into a drug distribution network. At this point my friend isn’t exactly sure what she may or may not have done. But he expected that she would be released on bail as long as she had a place to go which conformed to the demands of the prosecutors. With no other options my friend had gone to great lengths to make his house that place, which included getting rid of all the alcohol (this is Utah after all). All of this effort was for naught because the federal prosecutors convinced the judge that she had access to a lot of “cryptocurrency” (how much the prosecutor couldn’t say, but “a lot”) and that a sufficient amount of “cryptocurrency” acted like a genie granting wishes and that she could use one of these wishes to disappear. I’m sure he also threw in a reference to the Dark Web for good measure.


I- Eschatological Reviews

Engineering the Apocalypse

An episode of Sam HarrisMaking Sense podcast, Featuring Rob Reid

4 hours

Briefly, what was this episode about?

Bioterrorism by means of artificial pathogens, which Reid considers to be the greatest current danger to civilization.

Who should listen to this episode?

If the pandemic has gotten you interested in pandemics in general and artificial pandemics in particular, and if you want to know what that danger looks like and the best strategy for mitigating it, this is a fantastic resource.

General Thoughts

Lots of people listen to Sam Harris’ podcast, but I have never been one of them. So I’m grateful to friend of the blog Nick deWilde for pointing this episode out to me. (If you’re at all in the tech or entrepreneurial space you should subscribe to his newsletter, The Jungle Gym.) And it should be noted that this episode has far more content from Rob Reid than Sam Harris. Reid has thought deeply about how easy it would be to create an artificial pandemic, but in fairness, lots of people have done that. Where Reid’s analysis shines are in his thoughts on how to mitigate the risk. And there are indeed lots of ways this risk could be mitigated. Hearing them gave me hope, but it also created a little bit of despair as well. Can the techniques he described actually work? Is preventing a version of COVID that’s ten times as lethal and ten times as contagious doable? Even if it’s not easy? The answer to that question presents profound…

Eschatological Implications

I don’t have the space to get into everything Reid talked about so I’m just going to make quick comments on a handful of the points he brought up.

He spent a fair amount of time talking about ways in which RNA strands could be screened and potential harmful strands rejected before being created. Currently the best place to do that is with the companies who create such strands, but eventually someone will be able to buy an RNA printer, at which point Reid suggests that the screening happen at the level of the printer. He indicated that this would force anyone wanting to make an artificial pathogen to use the older more complicated methodology and most would-be bioterrorists wouldn’t know how to do that. What he didn’t speak to is whether these printers could be hacked in such a way to override this screening. I assume Reid is aware of this possibility, and he may not have had the time to cover it. Also maybe such hacking is impossible. Though that seems unlikely. I could imagine it being difficult, but impossible? Given sufficient motivation just about anything can be hacked, and I have hard imagining that these RNA printers would be any different.

As you might imagine the measures Reid wants to introduce cost money. That money is a small fraction of the cost of any potential pandemic, but the amounts in question are still significant. Reid suggests that the military might be a good organization for spearheading these efforts since they have long experience getting money out of the government. This is an excellent point, but just because the military is good at getting money doesn’t mean that they’re good at using it, or at really getting anything done quickly and effectively. It’s interesting that we’re talking about this in the context of future pandemics because their performance during the current pandemic was abysmal. It took the military nine months to develop and approve a face mask. Nine months! For a facemask! And this was an expedited request! This doesn’t inspire me with much confidence that they’re the organization to head up the complicated measures envisioned by Reid for preventing the next pandemic.

Reid’s plans rely on a certain amount of consensus between scientists, businesses and especially countries. Reid goes to great lengths to explain how much easier bioterrorism is than creating a nuclear weapon. And yet despite the best efforts of basically the entire world North Korea was able to acquire nukes. How are we going to prevent them from making a bioweapon? I understand that pathogens are indiscriminate, that the bioweapon you create may end up killing your citizens as well. But playing with nuclear weapons when your opponents have thousands more than you is not especially safe either. And there are various ways to mitigate its effects like releasing it on the other side of the world or having a vaccine already ready to go. I’m not saying this means international consensus is impossible, just that it may not be as obvious an outcome as Reid hopes.

Speaking of spreading it far away, many of Reid’s plans rely on isolating an outbreak quickly, which keeps it from spreading and leaves the rest of the world free to combat it. But there’s no reason why a bioterrorist wouldn’t simultaneously release their pathogen in as many locations as possible. It’s one thing for the US to respond to a single outbreak in New York, it’s another for the US to respond to multiple outbreaks in New York, and yet another for it to respond to multiple outbreaks in multiple cities.

Finally I understand that we should be able to do all or most of the things Reid is recommending, but there’s not a lot of evidence that we will. It’s one thing to talk about what the government is doing right now, when the pandemic is front and center, it’s another to imagine what the government will be doing 10 years from now when the pandemic has faded from memory and other priorities seem far more pressing. As an example of my doubt over government effectiveness, while I was listening to the podcast in my car it was interrupted by a call. Despite not recognizing the number, I was expecting a call from a potential new client so I answered it. It was a recorded voice telling me that my Social Security number had been suspended, an obvious scam. If the government, despite how much people hate them, despite the fact that only a few companies are involved, and despite the fact that all the vectors of the attack are totally controlled by these few companies, can’t stop robocalls, what hope is there for stopping a virus?

To be clear I support everything Reid is calling for (though I hope we can find an organization more efficient than the military to run it) and I’m glad someone has come up with a semi-feasible plan for dealing with this threat, but I think it’s important to realize how difficult the problem is, and that even a straightforward plan is going to face numerous challenges and Reid’s is anything but.


This Could Be Our Future: A Manifesto for a More Generous World

By: Yancey Strickler

304 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

How the ideology of financial maximization warps business and society. 

Who should read this book?

People who agree that financial maximization has a corrosive effect, and are looking for support and evidence.

General Thoughts

Strickler was one of the founders and the CEO of Kickstarter. Which makes this another book by a CEO (see my review of Satya Nadella’s book) talking about why their company is different and how every company would be better if they were more like (insert company name here).

Unlike many such books however this goes into significant detail about how overwhelmed Strickler felt, how stressed and unprepared he felt and how much pressure it is to be the CEO of a successful startup. Having been involved in a couple of unsuccessful startups, and having been an entrepreneur/self-employed since 2007 in any time I wasn’t involved in an unsuccessful startup, I think I have some sense of what he means. And it is pretty bad.

But most of the book is dedicated to diagnosing what is wrong with society, and what needs to be fixed if we don’t want things to get worse and end badly, which takes us to:

Eschatological Implications

There are books which posit a general societal and civilizational malaise. A great example is Ross Douthat’s The Decadent Society, which puts forth the idea that our country is afflicted by a multifaceted decadence which manifests in all sorts of ways, and in nearly all areas. Strickler makes some of the same points, but in his view the problem with society is very narrow, and it all starts with one man. In fact he nails all of the problems of the modern world to one op-ed written by this one man in 1970. That man is Milton Friedman and the op-ed was titled: A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits. And according to Strickler it introduced the concept of financial maximization and this is when it all went south. That the problem with the modern world is business greed, and all other problems flow from that.

Now it is true that something did happen in the early 70’s, there’s a whole website dedicated to it, and I’m getting really close to writing a post of my own about it. But it seems unlikely that Friedman played much of a role in this pivot, let alone was the primary actor. And to be clear, Stickler does not claim that this is the root of all the problems, that’s something of a strawman, but less of one than you might think.

Regardless of the force with which Strickler makes the claim I think it has several problems. To begin with I don’t think the companies were just waiting for permission to maximize profits, or that CEOs had previously kept their salaries reasonable, but then they read Freidman’s op-ed and came away thinking, “Pay myself more? That never would have occurred to me.”

What seems far more likely to me is that the post-war period was an aberration. That America, as really the only country left standing after the war, was able to create a peculiarly nice business environment. That there was enough demand from rebuilding world that everyone could have a nice job and businesses could afford to be generous. And that what started in the 1970’s was more a reversion to the mean, than some unique evil brought on by a specific economic philosophy.

None of this is to say that the problems he talks about aren’t real. I do think, based on the data, that CEO salaries are excessive, that they generally have less of an impact on the company’s profitability than people imagine.  I do think Wall Street is kind of out of control, but I also think their sins are hard to disentangle from the enormous amount of money the government has injected into the system and the perverse aftermath of the 2007-2008 crisis.  And I’m becoming increasingly convinced that technology and network effects have allowed some companies to become monopolies in ways which are pernicious in new and subtle ways. But when all is said and done I don’t think financial maximization is the disease, I think it’s just one of the many symptoms of a far more widespread malise. 


II- Capsule Reviews

The Lion Tracker’s Guide to Life

By: Boyd Varty

136 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

How getting back to nature is the cure for much (perhaps even all?) of what ails us.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who’s into anything paleo, or paleo adjacent will probably love this book. It draws a direct contrast between what humanity is doing now and an activity which is literally thousands of years old.

General Thoughts

Varty’s family owns a wildlife preserve in South Africa, as part of that it’s necessary to find lions so that the guides have something impressive to show people on safari. Finding these lions involves tracking them. The book is the story of a morning Varty spent tracking with his two older, more experienced companions. The events of the morning are intermixed with observations about life and the world. 

The last book offered a candidate for the one thing that was wrong with society, this offers up an idea for the one thing that will fix all the problems. Both are pretty unreasonable. In the case of this book we can’t send all 7.7 billion people to South Africa to track lions, but I nevertheless found this book far more compelling.  


Babylon’s Ashes (The Expanse #6)

By: James S. A. Corey

544 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The war which follows after the events of Book 5.

Who should read this book?

The events of book 5 and 6 are tied together so closely that I can’t imagine reading the one without reading the other.

General Thoughts

Lot’s of science fiction requires a certain suspension of disbelief. This suspension is expected and generally not particularly onerous. These suspensions can be wide but not particularly deep — it’s something a little bit unbelievable but it permeates everything about the story. They can be deep, but not particularly wide — the book asks you to accept something truly extraordinary, but it’s effect on the story is limited. And then of course the suspension can be both wide and deep in which case it might make the book unreadable. Babylon’s Ashes required me to suspend my disbelief in a way that was reasonably narrow, at least narrow enough that I enjoyed the book as a whole and am eager for the rest of the series, but at a depth that may have exceeded anything I’ve previously encountered in a fiction novel. 

**Begin Mild Spoiler**

Basically in the books there is an oppressed minority with legitimate grievances. And so, as sometimes happens, this minority resorts to violence, but it’s violence on a scale that beggars the imagination. Despite the truly unprecedented scale of the violence, it’s treated in the book as more of a mild overreaction which is mostly justified by the way in which the minority had been treated.

 

**End Mild Spoiler**

What’s unfortunate is that in the current environment this suspension immediately gets translated in my head into a political statement. And to be clear this says more about me than the authors, but this dash of politics, even if unintentional, diminished my enjoyment somewhat.


Peter the Great: His Life and World

By: Robert K. Massie

910 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The frankly incredible story of Peter the Great.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who loves a good history book.

General Thoughts

Massie might be my favorite author of history, and while I don’t think this quite reaches the level of Dreadnought, it’s nevertheless a fascinating book about an amazing individual. Rather than trying to go deep on any individual event, I thought I’d just list some things I found interesting:

  • The Great Northern War between Sweden and Russia takes up a large part of the book. I didn’t know basically anything about it going in, but it was crazy, particularly from a modern perspective. Everyone expected Sweden to win.
  • Related, the Swedish King, Charles the XII, Peter’s antagonist during the war, is almost as fascinating a character as Peter. Young and impetuous but also a brilliant and effective general.
  • Peter’s second wife also had an incredible story. She was born a Latvian commoner, taken as a spoil of war by one of Peter’s generals, then passed to Peter’s best friend who eventually passed her to Peter. It’s unclear how sexual these first two relationships were, but she married Peter, saved his army from the Ottoman’s and was Tsaress after his death.
  • Unlike the vast majority of Russians Peter loved ships and the sea. Perhaps my favorite part of the book was his journey to Europe. First off he was trying to journey incognito which was impossible, not only because he was the Tsar, but also because he was 6’7” which is conspicuous even now, but back then he would have stuck out like Andre the Giant. Second, the whole point of the trip was that he wanted to learn shipbuilding in Holland. Consequently he spent four months training as a carpenter in the private shipyards of the Dutch East India Company. In the end they gave him a certificate declaring him to be a shipwright, which Peter was immensely proud of.
  • It’s hard to describe how curious Peter was. It wasn’t just shipbuilding he was interested in, it was nearly everything. In many respects this curiosity was what led Peter to be the ultimate modernizing technocrat, building his capitol, St.  Petersburg, from nothing. Reforming Russian money, the Russian army, and of course the Russian fleet. Constantly looking to every detail of the realm. But in all of his affection and admiration towards Europe, it never occurred to him that Russia should be anything other than an absolute autocracy, led by him. 

Exhalation: Stories

By: Ted Chiang

368 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A collection of fantastic science fiction short stories.

Who should read this book?

Everybody? Or at least anyone who’s ever enjoyed short science fiction.

General Thoughts

This was an excellent recommendation to me by one of my regular readers, and I’m annoyed that it took me so long to get to it. Every single story was good and some were fantastic. My favorite might be the very first, “The Merchant and the Alchemist’s Gate”, but perhaps it was just nice to be reading something so atmospheric, it’s been awhile since I’ve done that. I definitely need to go back and read his other collections (there aren’t many).


What’s Wrong With the World

By: G. K. Chesterton

201 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Chesterton diagnoses the ills of turn of the century England.

Who should read this book?

To me it felt somewhat dated, so probably only if you are already a fan of Chesterton.

General Thoughts

I’ve talked in the past about how people can have an excellent grasp of how the world got to this point, but when they attempt to turn that into a prescription for what we should do in the future their ideas end up being horrible. There is something of that in this book, though I would argue that by preceding from a traditional foundation that Chesterton comes much closer to an accurate view of the future than people taking a more academic approach. And of course say what you will about Chesterton’s opposition to female suffrage, I think it’s more than made up for by his early and quite vocal opposition to eugenics. And in this respect his warnings were incredibly prescient. This book mentions eugenics in only a few places, but it’s clear that he could see the danger of that path when everyone else was hugely in favor of it and several decades before the rest of the world acknowledged the horror of it.

This book also contains some of his best quotes:

The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.

…washing is a virtue in the rich  and therefore a duty in the poor. For a duty is a virtue that one can’t do. And a virtue is generally a duty that one can do quite easily.

Now the whole parable and purpose of these last pages, and indeed of all these pages, is this: to assert that we must instantly begin all over again, and begin at the other end. I begin with the little girl’s hair. That I know is a good thing at any rate. Whatever else is evil, the pride of a good mother in the beauty of her daughter is good. It is one of those adamantine tendernesses which are the touchstones of every age and race. If other things are against it, other things must go down. If landlords and laws and sciences are against it, landlords and laws and sciences must go down. With the red hair of one she-urchin in the gutter I will set fire to all modern civilization.


Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future

By: Margaret Heffernan

320 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The way that recognizing the ambiguous nature of the future helps, paradoxically, to navigate it better. 

Who should read this book?

No one. I came really close to not finishing it. It’s not so much that it’s a bad book, it’s that there are so many better books. 

General Thoughts

In this reviewer’s humble opinion Uncharted is a poor collection of ideas from so many better books. It lays out the idea of black swans like Taleb, but without actually naming them as such or offering any advice for dealing with them. It’s littered with business advice like Good to Great, but with far fewer anecdotes or evidence. It seems to aspire to offer personal advice as well, with the long story of an Irish Catholic priest who fell in love and left the church, and advice about aging as well. For good measure Heffernan mentions stuff like Superforecasting, Aubrey de Grey, (an anti-aging guru) and the frequently told anecdote of how London Cab Drivers have larger hippocampuses. This would all be useful and interesting if it was used to construct some larger philosophical foundation. But at best it was loosely woven into an extended meditation on ambiguity, but it wasn’t a particularly coherent meditation, and even if it was, one doesn’t build a path to the future on extended meditations. 

Out of it all, I did come across one interesting point. She claimed that businesses with a strong culture weather crises better. Perhaps that’s applicable to nations as well?


Cult of Smart: How Our Broken Education System Perpetuates Social Injustice

By: Fredrik deBoer

288 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A refutation of blank slate ideology, focusing on education, from a marxist perspective. 

Who should read this book?

If you think the idea that “any person can grow up to do anything they want” is one of the most pernicious lies ever told, this book is for you.

General Thoughts

Some people are talented, and smart, and some people are not. Some people can learn long division in an afternoon, some people, such as one young man deBoer mentions, can spend weeks being privately tutored on the subject and still not get it. The book makes three points with respect to this talent gap:

  1. It’s largely genetic (but only on an individual level, deBoer emphatically rejects racial differences).
  2. It’s not fair to condemn people to crappy lives of poverty based on something they have no control over, i.e. their talent. 
  3. This is exactly what both parties are doing by espousing the idea that children are blank slates, and that given the right education system anyone can succeed, and if they don’t it’s on them.

I enjoyed the book, it was well written, and deBoer is passionate and informed. I disagree with a lot of what he says but not his central point, that blank-slateism is a society wide delusion that is warping the nation in profound ways. In particular it’s made the job of teacher virtually impossible. Being married to one teacher and the son of another teacher I can see this playing out. They’re somehow expected to solve all of our nation’s problems by ensuring that everyone learns algebra. And no one dares question whether everyone, in fact, can learn algebra.


III- Religious Reviews

Mormon Philosophy Simplified: An Easy LDS Approach to Classic Philosophical 

By: Brittney Hartley

290 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Connecting Mormon theology to classical philosophy.

Who should read this book?

Anyone who wants to get into the philosophically unique theology of Mormonism without trying to tackle someone like Sterling McMurrin

General Thoughts

The world “simplified” is right there in the title and Hartley does a great job of exactly that. The book is an easy read but still manages to hit all of the important points. I would say that at times it seems too simple, and there is the occasional foray into current culture war territory (the book is more aspirational than apologetic) but if you’re looking for an easy entry point into the subject this is a great place to start.


Speaking of entry points, supporting this blog has a very easy entry point: $1/month. At $12 a year that’s like the cost of one person eating out. If this blog brings you as much satisfaction as that, consider donating.


The 9 Books I Finished in March

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  1. Secular Cycles by: Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov
  2. Where Is My Flying Car? A Memoir of Future Past by: J. Storrs Hall
  3. A Short Stay in Hell by: Steven L. Peck
  4. Cibola Burns by: James S. A. Corey
  5. Nemesis Games by: James S. A. Corey
  6. Classical Philosophy: A history of philosophy without any gaps, Volume 1 by: Peter Adamson
  7. Playing at the World: A History of Simulating Wars, People and Fantastic Adventures, from Chess to Role-Playing Games by: Jon Peterson
  8. Earth Abides by: George R. Stewart
  9. The Goal: A Business Graphic Novel by: Eliyah Goldratt

I keep a daily journal, as many writers do. In addition to that habit, every day I am also in the habit of re-reading the entries from a year ago, and five years ago, etc. Which means I spent this month re-reading my journal entries from March of 2020, when everything was shutting down.

As always the exercise was both thought-provoking and cautionary. Reading the March 2020 entries was an experience rich in dramatic irony. But really that’s the case when I read nearly any past journal entry. I know what’s going to happen, the person writing the entry doesn’t. The person writing is frequently wrong. I am that person. It gives one a certain humility. 

There were lots of things I didn’t suspect a year ago. I didn’t imagine that the pandemic and wearing masks would become so politicized. I should have. I didn’t think we’d have vaccines so quickly, that mistake was probably more forgivable.

In other areas I was more prescient. I could already sense in my gut by the end of last March that the Rhine River Cruise my wife and I had booked for July (in celebration of our 25th wedding anniversary) was going to get cancelled. We have rebooked it for June of this year, and my gut is once again telling me (as I look at the climbing numbers in Europe) that it’s not going to happen. On the other hand my head is telling me that there’s no way Europe is going to miss another tourist season. Let’s hope my head is right.


I- Eschatological Reviews

Secular Cycles 

By: Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov

350 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The repeated historical cycles of expansion, stagflation, crisis and depression experienced by all nations, with two examples each from England, France, Rome and Russia.

Who should read this book?

I’ve wanted to dive into Turchin for a while, and I couldn’t get any clear sense on where to start. Of all his books I already owned this one, so eventually I decided to start with it. So far I think that may have been a mistake. Not that it’s a bad book, I just get the sense that it’s not a good starting point. But I’ll know more once I read some of his other books. Which I intend to do. All of which is to say at the moment I’m not sure who should read this book.

General Thoughts

The idea of historical cycles has been around for a long time. I’m no expert on this particular area (nor really any particular area) but as far back as the Greeks there was the idea of Kyklos, which I think just literally means cycle. Though they seemed to mostly use this term to describe the transition between the various systems of government, not quite using it so expansively as to describe the broad sweep of societal boom and bust we’re interested in.

In more modern times, my sense is that Oswald Spengler is the person most associated with applying the idea of cycles to Europe and the West. Asserting not merely that the West was caught in the same historical cycles which affected all civilizations, but that we were also nearing the end of that cycle. That our best days were behind us. The idea of cycles was also a big part of Arnold J. Toynbee’s 12 volume, A Study of History, which was enormously popular in the 40’s and 50s. But after this surge of popularity, Toynbee’s books and the idea of cycles fell out of favor, particularly once the Cold War ended. At least that’s how it appears to me.

As you might imagine, with the increasing unrest we’ve been seeing since at least 2016 interest in the subject of cycles has been rekindled. And Turchin is clearly at the head of the pack here, particularly since he started talking about it long before 2016. He’s been predicting worldwide civil unrest during the 2020’s since at least 2010. Which may not seem like much, but for a prediction that’s pretty good.

This book is not about the current day, or even the United States, it’s about him laying out, in meticulous detail, the historical case for cycles. This is not precisely what I was looking for and it’s probably not what you’re looking for either, but building out the foundation of his theory might be a good place to start. But as I already said in the previous section the jury’s out on that for now. 

The key problem with any theory like Turchin’s which attempts to predict the future by drawing on what happened in the past — deriving trends or cycles or general rules — is that it’s very difficult to make it even approach science. You have no control group to compare against. There’s no way to account for the effects of new technology. And your sample size is tiny. Turchin’s sample size is eight, or four if you only count the nations, and it was the work of hundreds of people and decades of research to compile the information necessary for even this small sample. So you’re faced with a situation where making a case is fantastically difficult and the case you can make isn’t very scientific even if you do go to the effort. 

Within the context of these limitations, I don’t think it’s possible to do a better job of making a case than Turchin has. He has pulled in data from several different angles. It’s full of charts, statistics and comparisons. He’s applied his theory successfully to multiple nations, in multiple different settings and historical periods. So, If you’re willing to at least entertain the idea that it’s possible to predict the future by looking at the past, then Turchin has done everything that might be expected towards making such a prediction. I understand he still may be wrong, that he has “proved” nothing, but it’s hard to imagine a more serious attempt than Turchin’s.

Unfortunately, as it turns out, making this case, and assembling all of the data proves to be a very dry read. Which is another reason why I’m not sure who to recommend it to. It probably serves better as a work of reference than something you just sit down and read from cover to cover.

Eschatological Implications

At a high level the eschatological implications of Turchin’s theory of cycles should be reasonably obvious. Unfortunately this book doesn’t give much guidance on where we are at in our own cycle and how that might play out. Though even without being familiar with anything else he’s said this book would lead you to the conclusion that we’re on the downhill side of the cycle and more chaos should be expected. 

One draws this conclusion from the many similarities our situation shares with the situations Turchin documents. A few are worth discussing briefly.

First, his analysis and theory owe a lot to Malthusian thinking. Good times lead to an increase in population which eventually outstrips the carrying capacity of the land leading to a stagnant and eventually collapsing population. We don’t seem to be having any problems with food, at least not yet, but we are suffering from a collapsing population. Is this a new thing or is food only the most visible example of “carrying capacity”? Have we reached other less obvious limits to our capacities?

A more obvious commonality is Turchin’s idea of “elite overproduction”. Most people who study civil unrest agree that generally the lower classes don’t spontaneously organize and revolt on their own, they have to be harnessed to that end by disaffected elites who have been excluded from wielding power more directly. Diving into how elite overproduction is playing out currently is beyond the scope of this review, but there are few two word phrases that are more evocative of our current condition. 

Finally, plagues play a major role in most of his examples of civilizational crisis, but what’s strange is they aren’t the instigating factor. Generally the crisis and decline has already begun and then a plague comes along. Turchin doesn’t offer much in the way of explanation for why that might be. (Rural overpopulation leads to increasing urbanization, leads to ghettoization, leads to poor sanitation, leads to disease, maybe?) But reading this in light of the recent pandemic was frankly a little bit eerie.

It’s interesting to draw such parallels, but not particularly useful. What we really want is to be able to translate Turchin’s theory into a course of action for our country or our politicians or even just ourselves. Which is not to say I have no ideas, I actually have lots of advice on this subject, I just don’t think reading Turchin’s book has added much to my store of practical wisdom on this topic. It’s added a huge amount of data, and I think the idea of elite overproduction is worth a deeper dive, but beyond that it doesn’t offer much solace for someone observing the end times.


Where Is My Flying Car? A Memoir of Future Past 

By: J. Storrs Hall

627 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is a very detailed examination of why we don’t have flying cars, which ends up pulling in all of the technology we might have had but don’t. Beyond the subject of flying cars this book also includes in depth discussions of nanotechnology, nuclear energy and even cold fusion. 

Who should read this book?

In the last post before this one I talked about the metaphorical knobs of society. If you want someone to paint a picture of what it would look like if the knob of “technological progress” was turned up to 11, this is the book for you.

General Thoughts

I should state up front that while I try to limit discussion of individual books to my review posts that this book deserves and is going to get it’s own post, which will be the next one after this one. Why is that? Because this book has enormous bearing on the discussion of technocracies, and the pandemic, and just about everything else I’ve been talking about. As such it deserves a deeper discussion than what I have room for here. 

That discussion will be both theoretical and hypothetical, so I’m going to use this space to make sure I cover the practical side of the book. In particular Hall leaves no stone unturned when it comes to the issue of flying cars, going so far as to get his pilot’s license so that he has first hand experience on the difficulties of flying. He also goes into detail about engineering challenges, the disadvantages of helicopters, the unfulfilled promise of the autogyro, and every attempt, no matter how small, at making a commercial flying car.

Obviously one of the big things people think of when they consider the flying car are the numerous times futurists and science fiction authors confidently predicted their imminent arrival, and how wrong all of these predictions were. Less discussed is why these predictions were wrong. Most of the time when I see them offered up, the assumption is just that prediction is hard and the people making these predictions were not as far-sighted as they thought. Storrs went into things with basically this attitude, but ended up concluding that we really should have had flying cars and on the timeline people predicted, but there are four reasons why we don’t:

  1. Flying is harder than driving.
  2. The transition from driving to flying (i.e. taking off and landing) is a difficult technical problem. Airplanes require lots of room, and don’t like flying low and slow. Helicopters are exceptionally difficult to fly and don’t go very fast once they are flying and autogyros never received widespread support.
  3. Flying is expensive, especially for what you get. The amount of additional travel one gets for each additional dollar spent goes down as costs rise. For example helicopters cost easily 10x what a car costs, but only travel at best 3x as fast.
  4. But sitting behind all of the previous points there is the legal and regulatory landscape. Which according to Hall was “insanely overdone”.

In other words the reason those predictions were wrong is only a tiny bit reasons 1-3, and mostly reason 4. And 1-3 would be straightforward to fix, without 4 looming over everything, disincentivizing investment and innovation. Thus, the biggest blindspot of futurists, was the evolution of the regulatory state, and the product liability revolution.

Eschatological Implications

I’ll use my next post to really get into the eschatological implications of this book, including a discussion of the regulatory state, but I thought it was important to point out that unlike most of the books I review in this section, this book puts forth a positive eschatology. It’s all about the wonderful things we can do with technology, and presumably will do with technology once we can get past our current period of stagnation.

This book paints a picture of Jetson like flying cars powered by small nuclear reactors, super abundant food grown with nearly unlimited energy in massive greenhouses, incredibly precise nanotechnology, and trivial control of global warming and the weather. In that last item you may recognize another link to my last post, and hints at interventions which scare a lot of people. Of course as Hall will point out we are already messing with global warming, we’re just doing it in a very unconstructive and damaging fashion.

My overall reception of this book reminds me of a scene from the New Testament. In the book of Acts, chapter 26, Paul is brought before King Agrippa and asked to defend Christianity. Agrippa is obviously hostile towards the faith, but Paul’s defense of it is so stirring that by the end Agrippa says, “Almost thou persuadest me to be a Christian.” As you may have noticed from the last few posts, I’m somewhat hostile to technocracy, but having read Hall’s defense, I’m inclined to say the same thing, “Almost thou persuadest me to be a technocrat.” 

Now to be fair to me, what Hall is describing bears very little resemblance to what we’re actually doing, and we’ll spend the next post disentangling that.


II- Capsule Reviews

A Short Stay in Hell 

By: Steven L. Peck

108 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A Mormon, who upon dying, discovers that Zoroastrianism was the true religion. As penance for not holding the correct beliefs during his life he must spend the afterlife in a library with all possible books, searching for his life story.

Who should read this book?

There is a genre of science fiction novellas, which prioritize M. Night Shyamalan-esque plots over character development. Another apt comparison for such novellas might be the Black Mirror or the Twilight Zone.  If you’re familiar with novellas of this style or if this otherwise sounds appealing this book is just the thing to scratch that itch.

General Thoughts

One might almost think that I would put this in the religious reviews section given the subject matter. (And also I have nothing for that section this month.) Though, if it does have a religious message it seems like it would be ‘You better hope the Zoroastrians aren’t right!” Beyond that I liked what Peck did with his initial premise, in particular the book has an unflinching quality which I appreciated.

The book is based on the short story The Library of Babel by Jorge Luis Borges which imagines a library containing all possible books. These have been divided into 410 page chunks. And by all possible books he means not that it collects books that have actually been written but that it contains all possible characters combined in all the possible ways they could be combined over the length of 410 pages. 

As is often the case with ideas like this, someone actually implemented it. If we go there and take an example book at random the first 20 characters are:

m.eygvh rbzefwss,ctj

This implementation only includes lowercase letters, periods, commas and spaces, but beyond that, somewhere in its vast virtual bowels there is any book which has ever been written and any book you could imagine being written. Soren Johansson, the main character of the book is tasked with finding the book that tells the story of his life, I don’t want to give anything away, but as you can imagine that is an essentially impossible task. And it’s this impossibility which makes the book strangely compelling.


Cibola Burns (The Expanse #4)

By: James S. A. Corey

624 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

A retelling of the eternal story of poor squatters vs. an avaricious corporation. Only in this telling the squatters and the corporation are fighting over a planet which was once inhabited by a super advanced alien civilization, which adds all kinds of interesting chaos to the equation.

Who should read this book?

I have quite enjoyed the Expanse series. If you’re considering starting it I would. If you’re considering whether to continue past book 3, I would also do that. 

General Thoughts

This book somewhat reminded me of Kim Stanley Robinson’s book Aurora which I brought up in a previous post, specifically the dangers of an alien biosphere, a theme which features prominently in both books. These dangers certainly add an exciting layer to an inflammatory human conflict that is already pretty exciting.

As with all of The Expanse books, this book also engages in the completely ridiculous conceit of having a small group of people end up in the center of all of the action. And the equally ridiculous conceit of that action always being of the super-exciting, nail biting, cinematic sort. The kind you’re lucky to survive once, but these guys have survived similar circumstances over and over and over again.

But if you can ignore how implausible that all is (and I think you should) they’re great books.


Nemesis Games (The Expanse #5)

By: James S. A. Corey

576 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Four individual stories, one for each of the four main characters, which come together in spectacular fashion.

Who should read this book?

The same people who fit my recommendation for the last book.

General Thoughts

I mentioned the extreme implausibility of these books in my previous review, and it was during this book that I switched from treating them as an attempt to describe the future to viewing them as the log of a role-playing campaign. Unlike most campaigns this one isn’t set in a world of tolkien-esque fantasy, but in the near future, with the crew of the Rocinante obviously being the “player characters” or “party” as they say. You would think that splitting them up would be proof that this is not what’s happening (“Don’t Split the Party” as they say) but in actuality the opposite happened. It could not have been more clear that this book was the retelling of the four side quests created by the Gamemaster to flesh out the character’s back story, a common trope in role-playing games.

Yes I know that this comparison won’t make sense to some of you, but for those for whom it does make sense I think it’s the clearest way of describing the book. Though before I move on two other quick notes.

First other than the implausibility of all the characters being intimately involved in every exciting thing that’s ever happened, the series itself is pretty hard sci-fi. In fact it kind of has an old-school Heinlein vibe to it, particularly since AI and cybernetic enhancements are basically MIA in The Expanse.

Second, it’s tough to talk about this series without referencing the TV show. I watched the first season, and I might, some day, watch the rest. I found all of the actors to be spot on, with the exception of the guy they got to play James Holden, the main, main character. I’m sure he’s a fine person, but he’s not a great actor, IMHO. 


Classical Philosophy: A history of philosophy without any gaps, Volume 1

By: Peter Adamson

368 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

Western philosophy from the very beginning (there are 12 chapters on the pre-socratics) up through Aristotle.

Who should read this book?

If you’re looking for a general overview of ancient greek philosophy, this provides that in an easily digestible form. I’m not sure if it’s worth reading on it’s own, and I’m about to discover if it’s useful for providing the background one needs before reading the actual works of those ancient greek philosophers. 

General Thoughts

This book went down easy. In fact I got the feeling that it went down too easy, and I’m not sure why. Possibly I have that feeling because I’ve been conditioned to expect that reading philosophy is supposed to be hard and if it’s not hard then you’re not doing it right. Possibly it’s because in covering such a large number of people and ideas Adamson doesn’t spend much time on any of them, and in consequence, the book is superficial. 

I’m expecting to be able to answer this question once I start actually reading Plato. He is up next in my “great books of the western world project”. If this book makes Plato easier to understand and particularly if it helps place him in context, then it will have been a success. I’ll make sure to report back.


Playing at the World: A History of Simulating Wars, People and Fantastic Adventures, from Chess to Role-Playing Games

By: Jon Peterson

698 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

An encyclopedic history of tabletop strategy games as they evolved towards Dungeons and Dragons. 

Who should read this book?

The feeling I had while reading this is the same feeling I imagine a rabbi might have while reading the Torah in ancient Hebrew. Most other people reading this book will probably have a very different feeling, that of anyone other than a Rabbi reading the Torah in ancient Hebrew. 

General Thoughts

Earlier in this post I said that I’m not really an expert in any particular area. Well Dungeons and Dragons may be the exception to that statement. I’ve been playing it almost continuously since 1980. In fact in addition to the books I read in March I also attended a virtual D&D convention (GaryCon). Which was quite a bit of fun, though a pale imitation of attending in person. 

As I alluded to, this book is something of the Torah for role-playing nerds, and any details I could go into would be of limited interest to anyone outside of that group. In spite of that I will go into one part of the early history of D&D because I think I can extract a larger lesson from it.

D&D was initially created by Gary Gygax and Dave Arneson. Later Arneson was fired, written out of things and denied royalties. These actions have always been held against Gygax, and while opinions vary on how big of a role Arneson did play, the consensus seems to be that Gygax was selfish and greedy. Having read this book I’m much more on Gygax’s side. Yes, it’s possible it could have been handled better, but the key fact in my opinion is this. TSR, the company producing D&D, was a startup. This makes Arneson basically a co-founder with Gygax, and while Gygax was busting his ass putting out book after book, and tens of thousands of words beyond that in the form of magazine articles and correspondence, Arneson produced basically nothing

I know people think ideas are worth something, and they are, but not nearly as much as people think. But particularly when it comes to starting a business hard work is vastly more important. If you aren’t willing or able to do the work, then you don’t deserve the money. And to be clear Arneson sued and did get the money. So, after hearing all the details, from my perspective Arneson got more than he deserved out of things rather than less. 


Earth Abides

By: George R. Stewart

368 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

The handful of people who survive a global pandemic, and what life is like in the ruins of civilization.

Who should read this book?

This book was published in 1949, before science fiction had really congealed, and it’s a great early example of the form. It’s particularly interesting in light of recent events. If you enjoy either disaster stories or old sci-fi, you’ll like this book.

General Thoughts

As I mentioned this came out before some of the tropes of science fiction had congealed and as such it’s a different take on how people would react to the apocalypse and the story also takes place over a longer period of time. These differences took a little bit of getting used to, but eventually I really came to appreciate them.

Also while it’s clear that there are lots of things he got wrong — for example he made the same mistake nearly everyone does, gas does not remain good for years — he mentioned a lot of things which I haven’t seen anywhere else, but which seem likely to happen in some form. Most of these involve a rebalancing of animal species after the disappearance of humans, with the additional factor of suddenly abundant food, i.e. human corpses, though Stewart mostly avoids the more morbid facts of the apocalypse. 

All of which is to say that if you want to know what the apocalypse will really look like I think Earth Abides has a lot to contribute. And it’s a great story beyond that.


The Goal: A Business Graphic Novel

By: Eliyah Goldratt

143 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

This is a graphic novelization of The Goal, a business book originally published in 1984. Both are about the theory of constraints

Who should read this book?

I’m not sure. This book was recommended to me, and these days my book buying is so reflexive that I had purchased the graphic novel version without really realizing it. But if you’re interested in learning more about the theory of constraints, doing it in graphic novel format is actually kind of cool.

General Thoughts

Having read the graphic novel version I’m not sure if I’m going to go on to read the actual book. In large part this is because I have already read the The Phoenix Project, which is basically the IT version of The Goal. The Goal deals with manufacturing, and if that’s what you’re doing then I would probably read the actual book rather than the graphic novel. But if you’re in software like me then I would just skip straight to The Phoenix Project. 

From a conceptual standpoint the theory of constraints is very interesting. And I can see it applied to a wide variety of undertakings (as demonstrated by The Phoenix Project) but within the confines of a graphic novel things have to be kept fairly focused. So I’ll probably look into these ideas some more but don’t expect a review of the full book anytime soon.

My average book length for the year is up 13% over last year. That may not seem like much but under the old average I would have read three additional books. If you like the fact that I read long books so you don’t have to (or more likely so you can know if they’re worth reading) consider donating.