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UFOs have been in the news a lot recently. This is not the first time this has happened — the period immediately after World War II featured quite a bit of excitement about UFOs with some describing it as full on “mania”. But while this is not the first time UFOs have been in the news it is probably the first time reported sightings have been treated so sympathetically. The Washington Post recently announced, “UFOs exist and everyone needs to adjust to that fact”, and Vox.com declared “It’s time to take UFOs seriously. Seriously.

Of course, the existence of UFOs does not necessarily imply the existence of aliens, but that’s the connection everyone wants to make. In many respects this is a hopeful connection. It would mean that we’re not alone. As it becomes increasingly obvious how badly humanity bungled 2020, the idea that there are superior beings out there is no longer a source of dread but of comfort.

I’m very doubtful that the UFOs are aliens. First for reasons of natural skepticism, second, it isn’t too difficult to find reasonable, mundane explanations for the videos and finally for many subtle reasons I don’t have time to get into, but which boil down to the suspiciously convenient timing of the craft’s discovery and their all too human behavior. They’re not alien enough. 

Accordingly, I would contend that the videos are probably not evidence of aliens. They don’t answer the question of whether we’re alone or not. But that doesn’t mean the question is not tremendously important. But if the videos don’t answer the question is there some other way of approaching it?

In 1950, during the last big UFO mania, Enrico Fermi decided to approach it using the Copernican Principle. Copernicus showed that the Earth is not the center of the universe. That our position is not special. Later astronomers built on this and showed that nothing about the Earth is special. That it’s an average planet, orbiting an average star in an average galaxy. Fermi assumed this also applies to intelligent life. If the Earth is also average in this respect then there should not only be other intelligent life in the universe, i.e. aliens, but some of these aliens should be vastly more advanced than we are. The fact that we haven’t encountered any such aliens presents a paradox, Fermi’s Paradox.

In the decades since Fermi first formulated the paradox it has only become more paradoxical. We now know that practically all stars have planets. That there are billions of earthlike planets in our galaxy, some of which are billions of years older than Earth. And that life can survive even very extreme conditions. So why haven’t we encountered other intelligent life? Numerous explanations have been suggested, from a Star Trek-like Prime Directive which prevents aliens from contacting us, to the idea that advanced aliens never leave their planet because they can create perfect virtual worlds.

Out of all of the many potential explanations, Robin Hanson, a polymath professor at George Mason University, noticed that many could be boiled down to something which prevents the development of intelligent life or which prevents it from surviving long enough to be noticable. He lumped all these together under the heading of Great Filter. One possibility for this filter is that intelligent life inevitably destroys itself. Certainly when we gaze at the modern world this idea doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Accordingly, Fermi’s Paradox has profound eschatological implications — ramifications for the final destiny of humanity. If the Great Filter is ahead of us, then our doom approaches, sometime between now and when we develop the technology to make our presence known to the rest of the galaxy. In other words, soon. On the other hand, if the Great Filter is behind us then we are alone, but also incredibly special and unique. The only intelligent life in the galaxy and possibly beyond. 

Consequently, whatever your own opinions on the recent videos, they touch on one of the most profound questions we face: does humanity have a future? Because when we look up into the night sky at its countless stars we’re seeing that future, in the billions of Earths far older than our own. And as long as they’re silent, then, after a brief moment of light and civilization, our own future is likely to be just as silent.

I think some people would like it if I were silent, but if you’re reading this I assume you’re not one of them. If your feelings go beyond that and you actually like what I say, consider donating.