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I.
In August of 1941, near the beginning of World War II, before the US had even entered the war and during one of its bleakest periods, George Orwell penned an essay. This was an essay written in response to some things being said by another famous author, H.G. Wells:
Hitler is a criminal lunatic, and [yet] Hitler has an army of millions of men, aeroplanes in thousands, tanks in tens of thousands. For his sake a great nation has been willing to overwork itself for six years and then to fight for two years more, whereas for the common-sense, essentially hedonistic world-view which Mr. Wells puts forward, hardly a human creature is willing to shed a pint of blood…What has kept England on its feet during the past year? In part, no doubt, some vague idea about a better future, but chiefly the atavistic emotion of patriotism, the ingrained feeling of the English-speaking peoples that they are superior to foreigners. For the last twenty years the main object of English left-wing intellectuals has been to break this feeling down, and if they had succeeded, we might be watching the SS men patrolling the London streets at this moment. Similarly, why are the Russians fighting like tigers against the German invasion? In part, perhaps, for some half-remembered ideal of Utopian Socialism, but chiefly in defence of Holy Russia (the “sacred soil of the Fatherland”, etc etc), which Stalin has revived in an only slightly altered form. The energy that actually shapes the world springs from emotions–racial pride, leader-worship, religious belief, love of war–which liberal intellectuals mechanically write off as anachronisms, and which they have usually destroyed so completely in themselves as to have lost all power of action.
Wells was a science fiction writer who spent his days imagining a better or at least a different future, and Hitler and the Nazi’s represented neither. Instead they were depressingly primitive and retrograde. Because of this Wells imagines that the German war machine is going to fizzle out any minute now. Orwell strenuously disagrees. In hindsight, we can see that Wells was not merely mistaken, but very mistaken.
In this day and age, people like Wells still exist, and though they are no longer so quick to underestimate the appeal of powerful national emotions, or suffer from any difficulty imagining another Hitler (in fact if anything they may be too quick to apply that label to their ideological opponents) they still underestimate the power of those emotions and the dangers of abandoning them. Because I would submit that Orwell was correct about those who’ve settled into an “essentially hedonistic worldview” I think they would “hardly [be] willing to shed a pint of blood” or make many other sacrifices either, in defense of their ideology.
Recall, it wasn’t just Hitler and the Nazis harnessing those emotions, as Orwell points out nationalist fervor and patriotism was just as necessary to the British and the Russians in beating off the Nazis as it was to the Nazis in the first place. The two went somewhat hand in hand. So what’s the situation now? There seems to be four possibilities:
- Nothing has changed. Hitler’s are still possible and if someone like him arose again, and stoked the patriotic fervor of a nation then, in response, we would see the same nationalistic unity among his opponents. That it is still possible for there to be all out war.
- Hitlers are possible, but the will to oppose them is not. For example perhaps you could imagine Putin or Xi Jinping mobilizing their country in the same way Hitler did, but you can’t imagine a Churchill ever again arising in Europe or the US.
- The reverse of the previous option. Churchills are possible, but Hitlers aren’t.
- We have progressed to the point where Hitlers are no longer possible, but neither is the sort of patriotic sacrifice we saw on the other side either. That these days Churchills are just as impossible as Hitlers. Nowhere in the world will any nation ever again summon the massive and coordinated effort we saw during the World Wars.
Let’s take those possibilities in order. As the option with the best prima facie backing the first option has to be assigned some likelihood. In other words, unless you have good reasons to believe that something has changed it’s best to assume that it hasn’t. Of course, this wouldn’t be good news. The idea that we might once again see the great powers engaged in total war, only this time with the additional excitement of nuclear weapons, should terrify anyone. But perhaps there are good reasons to believe that something has changed. I think I, along with most people, have a hard time imagining a Hitler or a Churchill emerging out of the modern West. For all his strange popularity among a certain segment of the population, Trump is no Hitler, and finding a Churchill analogy is even harder. Which is not to say that it couldn’t happen, though if it does, it would seem more likely that these individuals would unify only a segment of a particular nation. Currently there seems to be very little evidence that anyone could unite an entire western nation as Hitler and Churchill once did.
Which takes us to the possibility that Hitlers are possible but Churchills aren’t. This seems the most awful possibility of all, and unfortunately not all that difficult to imagine. Certainly it’s not hard to construct a scenario, where 30 years from now a confident China, united by some charismatic leader, faces off against a disunited and fragmented USA. One unable to pull together as a nation, even assuming that our system could produce someone we could unite around, which it can’t. Or to put it another way, it’s possible that the developed Western countries might be uniquely skilled at producing martially impotent hedonists, unwilling or unable to be roused by national pride, while the rest of the world still maintains that ability, or at least enough of it to come out on top in a fight.
The third possibility, Churchills without Hitlers, seems the least likely of all. For one I have a strong suspicion that Churchills only arise in the presence of a Hitler. Certainly, if we abandon our use of them as shorthand for a moment and look to the actual individuals, Churchill never would have been chosen as prime minister without the threat of Hitler. And all the other Churchillian figures I can think also only came to the fore in response to a great crisis, even if that crisis lacked an opposing villain (think Lincoln and the Civil War). If a Churchill-esque figure were to arise independent of a crisis, and attempt to enforce their vision on an unwilling populace then I think that flips them into the Hitler column regardless of the initial purity of their motives.
II.
The final possibility is perhaps the most interesting, but also the one with the greatest number of unknowns. To be clear there are certainly upsides to dispensing with the emotions of “racial pride, leader-worship, religious belief, [and] love of war” but there are also downsides as well, and the question we have to confront is whether Orwell was right about the rest of his statement. Are these the emotions that provide the energy which actually shapes the world? And have we lost all power of action without them?
Before we proceed to answer these questions it’s important to take a deeper look at where things stand in the world at the moment. To begin with, I’m not familiar enough with Russian and Chinese attitudes to know if there’s enough nationalism still remaining in those countries for a Hitler style figure to emerge, though as I mentioned above, I think it would be foolish to rule out that possibility. But for a clear example of where these sorts of emotions are still present, we need merely turn to the Middle East, with the prime example being ISIS. (Which, it should be noted, is primarily a religious phenomenon.) And it’s worth spending some time on that, because clearly Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was a modern Hitler-esque figure. Which would seem to be strong evidence in favor of the argument that Hitlers are still possible (possibilities one and two).
The only saving grace in this instance was the vast disparity in technology between ISIS and its enemies, which allowed a strange pseudo-coalition of US backed Kurds, combined with Russian backed Syrians to eventually defeat them. But it’s worth pointing out that neither the US nor the Russians defeated them directly, they had to use “emotional” proxies like the Kurds and Assad supporting Syrians to actually eliminate ISIS as a nation with territory. This would also be the time to point out that the US has been unable to defeat the Taliban. Taken together these two conflicts would appear to provide strong evidence that the emotions Orwell mentioned are still important. And leading us to answer with a provisional “yes” to his first question: “Are these the emotions that provide the energy which actually shapes the world.” Well, at a minimum they have certainly shaped Afghanistan.
Looking at the world as a whole is interesting, but I think it’s instructive to look at just the US. When asked whether our nation still contains people with the sort of emotional energy found elsewhere most people might offer up the example of the ongoing protests against Trump. Or perhaps they might point out stories of street battles between Antifa and the Proud Boys or something similar. And while these may or may not be the sort of thing Orwell was talking about, they lack another characteristic which removes them from consideration even if they are. These individuals represent factions within a nation and not the nation itself. For Churchill to rally the English, it was not enough for him to rally only the football hooligans, or the Londoners, or even all the members of his own party he had to rally the nation as a whole. Now of course he didn’t have to rally every last individual citizen, but he (and Hitler) rallied enough people that the resources of the entire nation were bent towards a single goal. Looking at the factions currently roaming the streets, do you imagine any of them will ever have enough support to unite the entire nation? I don’t.
We should, at this point, consider the possibility that there are plenty of Hitlers, and perhaps even an equal number of Churchills but that the modern world is too fragmented for one of them to ever again rally an entire nation. The causes of this fragmentation have been amply examined elsewhere. (Indeed it seems the media can talk about little else.) And, for the purposes of this post, we’re not concerned with how we got here, but only with what we do now that we are. As to that, it seems obvious that we can have hundreds of mini-Churchills and Hitlers running around, but it doesn’t matter how much power they are able to bring to bear, because when speaking of a nation the whole is much greater than the sum of its parts. The effectiveness of an entire nation is vastly greater than the effectiveness of any faction within that nation, even adjusted for size, and even if the various factions aren’t actively working against each other, which they generally are.
Does this therefore mean that the answer to Orwell’s second question is also yes? That in the absence of these unifying emotions that we have lost “all power of action”? As you’ll recall he mentioned two groups of people in his essay, those who were susceptible to nationalism and those who thought it a relic of the past. If the first group, those who are still given to emotion, are hopelessly divided, perhaps a new breed of rational individuals will step in and take their place. But of course, Orwell also claimed, speaking of this second group, “for the common-sense, essentially hedonistic world-view which Mr. Wells puts forward, hardly a human creature is willing to shed a pint of blood.” Is this claim true? I’m not sure how to test it, or what evidence to provide for its truthfulness, but perhaps if we consider one of the chief examples and advocates for this second group as an example, it will help give us a sense of things. For this purpose I’d like to consider Steven Pinker, who I admittedly pick on a lot, but he is also probably the foremost example of a public intellectual who rejects “racial pride, leader-worship, religious belief, [and] love of war” while also embracing a “commonsense essentially hedonistic worldview.”
Given our framework, the first question we might ask is whether Pinker is a Churchill. (Or, I suppose, a Hitler, though that’s not a term to be thrown around lightly.) If he were then the discussion would be over, but I think we can safely say that he is not, at least not in the classic sense of being the charismatic leader of a popular movement. You could make the argument that while he does not have broad popular appeal, that he has had some influence on the rich and powerful. Certainly Bill Gates appears to have been influenced by his ideas. And that’s not nothing to be sure, but we’re not asking if Pinker and people like him can have any influence, clearly they can, we’re asking whether they can take the place of a Churchill and unite a nation when a Hitler shows up with his millions of men and tens of thousands of tanks. And here Pinker’s prospects don’t seem very promising.
For there to be any hope of someone like Pinker pulling off this sort of charismatic unification you would expect to see some indications of that power already. At least one or two political parties somewhere in the world of non-trivial size dedicated to him (not merely his ideology, remember we’re talking charismatic not ideological unification) or some nation where “Pinkerism” has already triumphed, and posters of the professor are displayed prominently. Unless I’m woefully misinformed, I don’t think any of that has happened. Frankly, it’d be a nice change of pace if bands of rabid Pinkernarians (Pinkertonians?) roamed the streets violently enforcing enlightenment ideals, but as far as I can tell insofar as there are Pinkernarians in the world they are entirely unorganized, and exactly as docile as Orwell predicted they would be.
To be clear, from Pinker’s perspective this lack of rabid followers is more of a feature than a bug. Popular movements are not known for their rationality, nor are the charismatic leaders of such movements known for their restraint. I think what he’s arguing is that you can be effective, that you can generate the energy necessary to shape the world, without such things, without the fiery emotions Orwell mentioned. That you can do it based entirely on rational self interest. Perhaps, but the evidence appears to be against it.
Previously, I discussed the difficulties of sustaining political unity in the absence of credible threats, and remarked that it seemed a better explanation than most for the current level of political vitriol. And the big question we should have after all of this, is can it be done? In a world without Hitlers and Churchills can nations still unify to get big important things done? We’ve seen Pinker’s argument for how this will happen, what does everyone else think?
III.
As you’ll recall this all started with a discussion of the possibility that the modern West, and in particular the US contains neither Churchills nor Hitlers. And, if that is indeed the case what it might mean. Orwell argues (and I think with some justification) that such a society is going to be incapable of doing anything particularly grand. He specifically mentions shedding a pint of blood, but I think that could be extended to anything which requires significant sacrifice of their “essentially hedonistic worldview” for the “greater good”. If they’re not willing to hazard the shedding of blood (theirs or others) they might also be unwilling to pay higher taxes, receive fewer benefits or put up with small amounts of inequality.
Pinker seems to be arguing that ongoing progress will mean that they mostly won’t have to, and that whatever inconveniences remain can be calmly and rationally addressed by an enlightened populace full of calm and rational individuals. But Pinker is also one of those rare individuals who believes the only thing we have to fear about the future is fear itself. (Specifically that such fear will cause us to abandon the enlightenment values which got us here.) A far greater percentage of people think that there are lots of things to worry about in the future, and furthermore lots of problems in the present, and being able to bring together millions of people to solve these problems would sure come in handy. The question is how to get those people to bring with them homeless shelters in their thousands, and solar panels in their tens of thousands rather than aeroplanes and tanks.
Most individuals, when confronted with this question, while still opposed to actual war, do not also go on to deny its power. There’s even a phrase that gets used: “The Moral Equivalent of War”. Wikipedia has a pretty good description of its origins:
…this phrase [comes] from the classic essay “The Moral Equivalent of War” derived from the speech given by the American psychologist and philosopher William James, delivered at Stanford University in 1906, and subsequent book, published in 1910, in which “James considered one of the classic problems of politics: how to sustain political unity and civic virtue in the absence of war or a credible threat…” and “…sounds a rallying cry for service in the interests of the individual and the nation.”
(As far as I can tell Pinker is not a fan of this idea, arguing in his book Better Angels that people shouldn’t be lionizing war even metaphorically.)
This description comes from the entry about President Carter’s use of that term in a famous speech about the energy crisis. (It also resulted in people realizing that the acronym for Moral Equivalent of War is MEOW… ) Carter contended that not only was this crisis large and serious, but that it was potentially catastrophic, and accordingly, it would require the united action of all citizens to solve. His solution was to engage in something that was the “Moral Equivalent of War”. An undertaking which marshalled the resources and devotion of the entire nation without the necessity of the usual external threat. He tried to rally the American People to warlike unity and effort without an actual war. He tried to be a Churchill without there being a Hitler.
Carter was president a long time ago, and if your knowledge of that time is a little fuzzy, let me assure you that Carter was no Churchill. Even if he was, by all accounts, a good man in most other respects. On top of that, as it turned out (and this might be part of Pinker’s argument) the energy crisis turned out to be both temporary and somewhat artificial. the part which wasn’t artificial was mostly solved through gradual gains in efficiency. Not through the use of MEOW.
These days we have people in a similar position to the one Carter faced, they see large problems on the horizon and they want to rally the US and the Western democracies in general to unify and put forth the same level of effort towards these problems that they put forth to win World War II (or start it in Germany’s case). But how do they do that without a war? How does someone become a Churchill in the absence of a Hitler? You see attempts at this sort of thing with Andrea Ocasio Cortez, and the Green New Deal, Greta Thunberg and her numerous exhortations, and Bernie Sanders and his crusade against inequality. And while these people have numerous very impassioned followers it’s clear that they’re just very successful politicians and public figures, that they’re FDR before the war, not FDR after Pearl Harbor.
One would have to argue that someone can’t marshal the resources of an entire nation in a fashion similar to what happened during World War II without appealing to the emotions of “racial pride, leader-worship, religious belief, [and] love of war”, as was the case with Hitler. Or without appealing to a close analog, say national pride, inspiring leadership, religious belief and love of country, along with being under an immediate and clear existential threat, as was the case with Churchill.
If this is the case where does it leave us? Let’s return to the four possibilities I mentioned above, but with a more specific focus on the US.
- Nothing has changed. It is still possible to unite the entire country using something very similar to patriotism, but there needs to be a credible, and immediate threat. Something on the level of the Cold War might work or it might not. (It did get us to the Moon.)
- The US and it’s citizens have forever lost the ability to unite against a common enemy. We can no longer produce Churchills, but our (potential) enemies are still capable of producing Hitlers.
- That we have passed into some new world where war is a thing of the past, there are no more Hitlers to force us to unify, but we figure out some other way of accomplishing grand things. Perhaps people are able to unify around mini-Churchills, like Elon Musk and his vision for a Mars colony.
- That all people everywhere are gradually giving way to the “essentially hedonistic world-view”, some nations (for example the US) are just farther along than others. But as we all gradually become lotus eaters it will turn out that there’s very little we’re willing to sacrifice, not a pint of blood, not our material comforts, in fact pretty much nothing at all.
Obviously three, Churchills without Hitlers is the one we’re all hoping for, but as I pointed out, there’s very little evidence that we’ve been able to make that pivot. I mentioned Musk, and he is an interesting figure, but having recently read the biography of Henry Ford the parallels are actually pretty striking. Which is to say I don’t think Musk is another Churchill, I think he’s just another Ford, and also as I’ve said repeatedly establishing a Mars colony is ridiculously difficult.
What I suspect and fear is that the US falls in category two or four. And I’m not sure which is more depressing. At least with possibility two, there’s always hope that in face of an aggressive China, or a resurgent Russia that though things will initially look fairly hopeless, eventually we’ll regrow our spine and summon another Churchill. Though even then it’s still difficult to imagine how things would play out, and should another world war break out the presence of nuclear weapons complicates things enormously. (Ground I’ve also covered.) But even if things went against us, I think most people would prefer if we went down fighting.
In the end while all of these scenarios remain possibilities, as I look around I’m more and more convinced that it is just as Orwell predicted. That in abandoning nationalism and religious belief, along with other, similar emotions, that we have descended into hedonism and narcissism and thereby also given up the only things that were ever capable of unifying people around monumental tasks and grand visions. That the finale of western civilization will be just as the poet predicted:
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
If you’d like to encourage a little bit of fighting, or at least a little bit of curmudgeonly complaining consider donating. I promise however things end with me it will be bang, not a whimper.
This whole story is easily explained by the old ingroup/outgroup dynamic. Most people don’t realize it because our modern perspective is warped, but Hitler was responding to (and helped to further stoke) an already-present fear of existential threat from ‘racial contamination’. He was responding to ingroup/outgroup dynamics, not creating them. If we add in hyperinflation and the treaty of Versailles it’s hard to imagine something other than German belligerence and a repeat of the Great War during this period. Indeed, even before the difficulties of the Great Depression, people were complaining that Versailles was planting the seeds of further conflict.
Hitler just happened to be good at lighting-fast tactics that made him look invincible until the base economics of WWII kicked in and drove the inevitable German defeat. He could have won had he stopped fighting at any point before 1943, but he perceived he was surrounded by an outgroup threat that had to be dealt with now or it would destroy his whole nation.
For Germans before the war, in the midst of horrific economic conditions, the call to fight back against what they perceived was the European boot on their necks was a natural national rallying point. You get that even without the Antisemitism and the racial fear-mongering.
What about the missing Churchills? There were plenty of people before WWI saying that war was impossible because people were too connected and nobody would be dumb enough to fight a war. Others were saying society had gone soft and couldn’t unite to defend outside invaders. They did in GB, but didn’t in France (for some specific reasons). In other words, on rare occassions – like war-weary countries – the ingroup/ougroup dynamic fails to unite a nation, but it’s rare. What are the chances it will hit the US and all other US-style developed democracies simultaneously?
Given the unifying response after 9/11, it seems this spirit of unification against a common threat is still present today. Maybe the US is war-weary because Afghanistan is still our longest war and we’re still there. But then again, do most people even realize we’re technically at war? How war-weary has this conflict actually made us, given it hasn’t been a tangible threat in a while?
Maybe something else has changed? Except I don’t see why we would think human ingroup/outgroup dynamics have changed with modern technology, given it’s everywhere we look. When there’s no greater threat, we’ll manufacture a minor threat just as we always have done – and currently are doing.
The early Christians famously united against the Roman attempts to wipe them out, but fought among themselves when that threat was lifted. Then they united again when they were invaded by the more advanced Muslim civilizations to the East, but broke down into infighting again with the rise of Protestants. Modern technology hasn’t cured us of this cycle. If anything, it has heightened our sensitivity to it.
What has changed is not the ingroup/outgroup dynamics, but the level to which they have fragmented. I’m saying it’s no longer possible for America in it’s entirety to be the in-group. Also I think Pinker and people like him aspire to opt-out of those dynamics. Whether they have actually done so is another matter, though I don’t see any reason to think that they haven’t.
I think the underlying biology should make us question whether escape from group dynamics is even possible. I think it can be guided if we’re aware of it so its influence is mostly positive, but I don’t think it goes away.
Are you saying you think something has changed since 2001 such that a national ingroup is no longer possible against an external threat? I think this hypothesis has been proposed historically but that it usually doesn’t hold.
I think there are two trends that are both working to make the formation of a national ingroup much more difficult. And both have happened recently.
1- There’s the lack of significant external threats. 9/11 was interesting, but it was pretty short lived and didn’t result in much actual unity. See the book Tribe by Sebastian Junger for the difference between people in the blitz and earlier military and people in the military now.
2- Social media has allowed us to assemble niche ingroups that end up being far more powerful than a national ingroup.
I’m going to listen to this podcast later but reading the comments I’m not sure I agree Hitler was ‘responding’ to anything rather than ‘using’. The hyperinflation had been stopped before Hitler came to power. There was no ‘racial contamination’ in Germany, Hitler’s targets in Germany could trace their heritage back to the Roman Empire. Hitler, and Japan, did, however, adopt the ethical system of the US and Europe but did so too late. Sort of like the late 20 year old guy who wants to binge drink and play video games. If he had done it in High School he may have been accepted but now he isn’t just a loser but seen as lower than a loser. Hitler wanted to expand into Russia the way the US expanded into the West at the expense of the Native Americans.
Germany was mistreated at the end of WWI but that shouldn’t distract from the radical nature of Hitler’s agenda, which was not simply about reaction to past injustices or defending his country. What he wanted was no less radical than Stalin or Lenin.
Hitler’s platform was obviously motivated by racism and antisemitism. I’m just pointing out that most people see that as coming entirely from Hitler. But it was a common sentiment – and not just in Germany – that arose from the widely held beliefs about eugenics of the day. We forget, because to us eugenics means ‘creating a master race’ – or in other words, it’s focused on creating something new in the future.
To the people of Hitler’s day – and in particular to many in the global scientific community – the implications of the theory of eugenics were that racial interbreeding would result in civilizational collapse. People already believed drastic action needed to be taken on the subject of race relations, and Hitler played on those concerns. The Holocaust didn’t come out of nowhere.
I think there’s two streams to thinking back then. On one hand eugenics was a new ‘science’ that promised to solve problems like mental illness by preventing ‘bad breeding’. This wouldn’t have been a strange, new, concept to people who were more connected with agriculture. It is, after all, essentially what a county fair is all about. The second was the Aryan mythos Nazis had with some super race that supposedly lived in northern India and migrated to Europe thousands of years ago. This is where the racism and antisemitism came in, which if you think about it actually runs counter to eugenics. A farmer would be happy to take a different type of cow and breed her if she had some superior traits like producing more milk. Did you ever hear animal breeders of any type worry about ‘mixing races’? If Nazi Germany was simply about eugenics, they wouldn’t have been paranoid about successful Jews but would have been happy such traits were available in the national gene pool. What they couldn’t tolerate was the idea that their racial mythos might be overturned by facts on the ground. Note the first targets of the Nazis were not poor Jews but successful Jews. In fact successful Jews were the first target.
Right. The belief was that white people, who had just ‘conquered the world’, were the source and cause of civilization. Without them, people would collapse into barbarism. (Jews weren’t counted as the ‘right race’, and any successful Jews were assumed to be successful by taking from productive ‘racially superior’ people.)
The question, “why white Europeans?” was on everyone’s minds. Some people argued white people had the ‘burden’ of spreading civilization to the rest of the world. Very much like how the neocons tried ‘spreading democracy’ in the 2000’s. Eugenics was a counterargument that this very practice endangered what contemporaries agreed was the source of innovation and change.
They saw poor and ‘degrnerate’ people breeding more quickly than their preferred racial identity. Not only that, but these people they thought incapable of driving civilization (they could only benefit from a civilized system white people created, not create or even perpetuate such a system on their own) were interbreeding with the group of people they attributed with creating modern civilization, thereby diluting the source of innovation and improvement. Of civilization itself. To them, if this situation continued it meant the cessation of all progress and a return to the stone age.
This idea enjoyed our support. It’s why the eminent Cold Spring Harbor lab was founded. Whole departments at Harvard and Yale were dedicated to ‘solving’ it. That’s why Hitler didn’t have to coerce his scientists into doing what he wanted. They were doing the same thing eugenicists in the US wanted to do, just more thoroughly.
It wasn’t so much about creating some master race as it was about preserving it. It was horrible and wrong, but it drove decision-making at the time. It’s a mistake we’ve largely forgotten, seeing it in hindsight as a misguided project to create a fictional matter race, as opposed to what is was: a moral panic that murdered millions of people out of fear.
Correction, the idea enjoyed POPULAR support.
Having listened to the podcast finally, I think I’ll toss in thoughts:
1. The ‘national unity’ under Churchill, FDR or even Stalin may be a bit ahistorical. I suspect there were a lot of debates during the war and memory tends to erase that leaving a more simplistic narrative.
2. Of course the UK was under existential threat
3. National Unity was demonstrate multiple times since WWII. For example 9/11 was a pretty unifying event for Americans and even the Iraq War after began with an alarming amount of near unity given how questionable it was from the beginning.
4. I think Hitler/Stalin/Mao etc. were unique moments in history where mass one-to-many communication became possible. The huge rallying speeches, carried on radio and newsreel were new things for the general public. Today we have mass one-to-one speech making the type of unifying that Hitler pulled off difficult to impossible.
Privately I have a hobby theory I’m thinking about that maps 3 radical communication changes in recent history to periods of radical change that then becomes more impotent as the public adjusts to the new medium.
The first was radio that allowed a leader to address the bulk of the public outside of print and proxies. Before radio if leaders needed local speakers to make their case to the public or a literate public to read rather than hear them. Think, for example, of the Lincoln-Douglas debates or Pope Urban II calling for the first Crusade. Only a tiny portion of those influenced by these things actually saw them in person. You read it or heard a local proxy speaker relay it to you. This produced a surge of radical dictator-leaders who achieved ‘national unity’. But a generation later the public was already ‘wise’ to this limiting the ability to ‘pull a Hitler’ off again…at least in developed nations.
The second was television that allowed face-to-face communication rather than voice. An example here were the Nixon-Kennedy debates, which I believe most who heard on the radio thought Nixon had won but Kennedy carried the TV audience with his good looks and youth. Here, I think the age of Hitlers came to an end as this is fundamentally something different than the rallying speech. Although some famous speeches were televised (MLK’s I have a Dream, for example), this medium works as the authority speaking directly to the individual. The TV newscaster, for example, showing civil rights protesters being beaten is an authority but he is showing you one-on-one. It’s hard to relate to Hitler footage since most of us don’t speak German and that age has gone but it is even harder to imagine Hitler doing ‘fireside chats’ or speaking directly to the camera for TV spots. What ‘worked’ in a huge prep rally type atmosphere doesn’t translate to the medium of TV/film.
There was, IMO, a period of radical change following this. The Civil RIghts Movement, I suspect, was not the culmination of ‘history bending towards justice’ but being in the right place at the right time. The Civil Rights movement had been stopped multiple times before and I suspect during ‘normal’ periods in US history the forces of power came together in such a way as to essentially keep it thwarted. This second change in communication, however, opened up a door to change that let it through.
Now we have a 3rd period of communication change where you have personalized communication but where the authority figure is replaced. The viewer reveals their preferences and ends up with an ecosystem of authorities doing one-to-one communication with them. You can become a PhD of physics or flat-earthism.
In this period of radical communication change, I suspect a Hitler isn’t possible. I think, though, a different type of negative Hitler might be possible. Hitler embarked on a program of promising national greatness through rather old fashioned notions….essentially the Roman Empire model of conquering land and taking its treasure. I think instead today we might only be able to see ‘negative Hitlers’ who can stop and ruin things but can’t actually embark on things. They can kill high speed rail projects, national health coverage etc. but they can’t bring the country to war (see, for example the Iran fiasco that just happened). In Turkey, Russia and other places they can create hell for dissidents and groups that are out of favor but they can’t construct either good or bad things.
1- Using “Churchill” and “Hitler” as shorthand may have lead to the conclusion that their wishes were never questioned. I’m sure they were, what I was more interested in was the amazing unity the nation as a whole had. The bending of the entire industrial might of the US, the UK and Germany towards a single objective. That’s the monolith I’m interested in, not the monolith of support for a given leader.
3- I think I’m the outlier here. I remember 9/11 pretty well, and as far as I can tell the unity that followed was a pale imitation of the unity that accompanied Pearl Harbor. Here’s what the NYT says about it:
Time magazine called it a day of infamy, evoking Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Pearl Harbor. But Americans did not flock to military recruiting stations after 9/11 the way they did in 1941.
Enlistments rose in the months after the attacks, but only modestly. Over the next year, and over the next decade, the work of war fell to a relative few, with less than 1 percent of the nation deploying in Iraq or Afghanistan between 2001 and 2011.
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/us/sept-11-reckoning/troops.html
I never said it disappeared entirely, but the trend line definitely has a steep downward slope.
4- I am familiar with your change in communication theory, and I think I largely agree, though I definitely don’t take it as far as you do. That said I do like the anti-hitler idea. I’ll have to ruminate on that some more.
The turning of the entire nation towards war is interessting, but then again the ‘military industrial complex’ after WWII was a real thing too and still is. Does this require national unity or simply the application of policy? Note WWII was not really paid for by taxes (although taxes went up). It was paid for by ‘forced savings’….intense pressure to buy bonds combined with rationing of goods that basically made it impossible to spend your pay on much .
The post 9/11 world appears as a contrast but then the US was attacked by two dozen people, not a nation. Despite the clash of civilization folks and neocons who envisioned some type of grand struggle against Islam, it wasn’t that. I recall on 9/11 I drove to the local hospital to see if I could give blood. They weren’t taking any. I recall my sister, who was in the National Guard, was called up. In the months after she spent weeks ‘guarding’ an air force base against, well, nothing. Some people did volunteer but ultimately the army turns people away. The nature of the post 9/11 world, despite the full scale invasion of Iraq, simply had nothing for hundreds of thousands of young people and the nation’s industrial base to do.
Could we redo a WWII style conflict? I think we could although you’re going to need to posit some type of sci-fi nonsense (UFO’s that are immune to nuclear weapons but vulnerable to bullets?).
I think the problem with the future Hitler/Churchill question is misplacement. We could, I think have a very evil leader launch some really evil shit in the future but it’s not going to look like Hitler….just like Hitler wasn’t a German Napoleon, even though to an 80 year old looking at things in 1935 the two had some similiarities.
I agree. I think it’s folly to use the exact same metrics to compare the vague concept of national unity after Pearl Harbor with the same concept after 9/11. The nature of war and the requirements of soldiers to fight it had changed drastically, so comparing raw troop numbers isn’t going to tell you as much as you might think.
Also, after Pearl Harbor there was a tangible threat linked to the same political entity that had attacked us. We could hurl bombs at it. The Japanese were particularly horrible toward POWs, and there was an Emperor who carried the war forward. Once he capitulated (with the exception of some isolated guerrillas on remote Pacific islands) the fighting stopped.
Contrast that with the nebulous War on Terror that we’re still technically engaged in. Who did we fight after 9/11? AQ was hard to go after, so we shifted to “those who harbor terrorists”. That meant the Taliban, sure, but they still weren’t the type of political entity we could hurl bombs at and claim victory over. Then it shifted to Hussein, and eventually ISIL/ISIS, (etc?)
The point is that the unity was there after 9/11, but there wasn’t as clear a mandate about what to DO with it as there was after Pearl Harbor. You can’t get back at suicide bombers, since they’re dead already. You can go after the organization that sent them, but they were always too covert to send 100,000 soldiers at. Going after the people who might have colluded with other people who might have something-something terrorists is too many links in the chain for anyone to follow. Combine that with the lack of additional attacks on US soil and you get a vastly different outcome.
I remember the unity following 9/11 as well. But because of recency bias I remember the lack of unity a scant four years later. Because unity in the face of national threat appears universal, but it’s not a cure all. If you’ve been keeping up with the Revolutions podcast, you’ll note that the Tsar – despite significant problems with popular opinion – gained a PR bump from the ‘unprovoked’ attack by the Japanese. That didn’t save him when the ensuing war went poorly and he squandered his artificial moment of popular unity.
Maybe the question isn’t “are we too contentious to unify against an outside threat?” I’m not sure we’re as bad as Russia at the turn of the 20th century yet., and even they managed to unify against the Japanese. Maybe the better question is, “Do we have leaders who would be able to capitalize on a unifying moment? Or do we have a figure more like the Tsar?”
Also is recent history being, incorrectly, assumed to be the norm? I believe during the War of 1812 the northern most states were actively trading with England. The Mexican American War was opposed vigorously. Is Pearl Harbor and WWII the norm or the exception when it comes to war? Is it healthy to want that to be the norm?